BIN LADEN IS DEAD, BUT "HAGOP HAGOPIAN LIVES"

The international community is likely to associate May 2011 with the elimination of the Number One terrorist, according to the US intelligence service, the leader of the terrorist organization Al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden. But shortly before that, on 24 April, the terrorist organization ASALA (Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia) issued a statement which constitutes a warning and threat not only to Turkey: "With their cohesive political struggle and the armed struggle of ASALA, the Armenians have backed the more powerful reactionary ruling forces of Turkey into a strategic impasse. Turkish peace-loving forces and progressive intellectuals must join forces to demand the condemnation of the Armenian genocide as a step towards establishing the rights of the Armenian people to return... Not a single condition can be set against the liberation struggle of the people. Both the political and economic allies of the Turkish state are still our enemies. ASALA knows how, when and where they have to act to heal the deep wounds of the Armenian people. Hagop Hagopian (the founder of ASALA - author) lives, we are all Hagop Hagopians." 

This is clearly an open challenge. As was to be expected, ASALA's statement did not go unnoticed in Ankara. Recently, the Turkish capital hosted the third congress of Turkish ambassadors attended by heads and representatives of Turkish diplomatic missions accredited in countries around the world. The main subjects of discussion were the question of "the Armenian genocide", the Armenian-Turkish process and ASALA, which sent Turkish embassies in various countries the following threat at the end of last year: "Be careful, do not think that we do not exist! We will settle scores with you." It was emphasized that on the eve of the centenary of the "Armenian genocide", the Armenian diaspora is carrying out very serious preparatory work with a huge budget. Therefore, it is necessary to act to derail the Armenian plans.

There were suggestions that Turkey should take the offensive and shoot a film on the events of 1915. On the process of normalizing relations with Armenia, many Turkish ambassadors demanded that the Zurich protocols be cancelled. Some suggested that Ankara should take a stronger position to oppose the international recognition of the "Armenian genocide" and issue specific warnings. According to the director of the Russian Centre for Analysis of Terrorist Threats and Low-Intensity Conflicts, Ramil Latypov, ASALA, which reacted harshly to the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, can become more active. The Russian expert's conclusion is particularly relevant against the backdrop of recent events unfolding over the Armenian-Turkish process and the recognition of "the Armenian genocide". This explains ASALA's recent threatening statement which does not mean anything other than a crisis of nerves among the Armenians.

Armenia's destructive position in the process of normalizing Armenian-Turkish relations is manifested mainly in its categorical refusal to establish a joint commission of historians and experts to study the 1915 events in the archives of Turkey and Armenia, as well as other countries (Germany, the UK, USA and Russia) to put an end to speculation about the "Armenian genocide".

It is interesting that Ankara has long since opened the Turkish archives, while Armenia does not intend to follow this example, especially opposing the opening of Dashnaktsuyun archives in the United States. Instead, the Armenians are trying to present the issue as a fait accompli that does not require proof and are struggling to secure the international recognition of "the Armenian genocide" without trial or investigation.

It should be noted that back in 2005, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a letter to the then Armenian president, Robert Kocharyan, proposing the establishment of a joint commission of historians to study the events of nearly a century ago. The Turkish side promised to accept the conclusion of such a commission even if it did not proceed from the interests of Ankara. In his reply, Armenia's president said that it was inadvisable to set up the commission as the historical fact of "the Armenian genocide" is indisputable for him.

The question of establishing an independent international commission of historians to study the events of 1915 in the future was recorded in the Zurich protocols in 2009, but Armenia's Constitutional Court issued a decision, the essence of which was that the theme of "the Armenian genocide" cannot become a subject of discussion.

Thus, the Armenian-Turkish process initiated by the United States reached an impasse. But Washington, in spite of everything, does not intend to retreat and supports the idea of creating an international commission of historians and experts to study the events of 1915. This was once again announced by the US ambassador to Turkey, Francis Ricciardone, a month ago. It is unlikely that after the statement of the US ambassador to Turkey and the dramatic events in the Middle East and North Africa, the Armenians expected US President Barack Obama to use the term "Armenian genocide" in his traditional annual address to the Armenians on 24 April.

As expected, in his traditional message to the US Armenian community, Barack Obama, did not use the word "genocide" for the third time since coming to power, restricting himself only to the phrase "Mets Yeghern" ("great calamity").

Even this statement by the US president angered Ankara, which considers it incorrect to assess uninvestigated and unproven claims. But the position of the Armenians in this case suffered even more, and the head of the Hay Dat office of the AFRD Dashnaktsutyun, Kiro Manoyan, expressed open outrage at Barack Obama's statement. In his view, the international recognition of the Armenian genocide, as well as the promotion of the issue of material compensation from Turkey, "is strongly damaged" by the Armenian-Turkish protocol signed in Zurich. And this opinion is shared not only by Manoyan, but also by many representatives of the Armenians. They believe that Turkey is using the beginning of the negotiation process and the Zurich protocols to demand that Armenia confirm that it has no claims - either territorial or any other. Thanks to these documents, Turkey got a good opportunity to link the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict to the normalization of relations with Armenia.

But the Armenians' botched policies for the recognition of the "Armenian "genocide" can hardly be justified only by this factor, especially against the backdrop of severe blows to their positions from other countries. In short, 2011 can be described as a year of frontal defeat for the Armenians. And the most serious blows came from France, a country that has traditionally been pro-Armenian.

In the second half of April, the Constitutional Commission of the French Senate rejected a bill that would have criminalized denial of the "Armenian genocide", finding it inconsistent with the principle of freedom of speech and thought enshrined in the European Convention on Human Rights. Moreover, a report prepared by a member of the Commission, Jean-Jacques Hyest, says that the bill does not meet the constitutional principle of "the legality of penalties for crimes". There is no legally binding international instrument or decision on the so-called "Armenian genocide". And the events of 1915 should be given a fair and open assessment based only on facts. Senator Hyest also recalled that "according to the French Foreign Ministry, if the bill is adopted, Paris may be in a difficult situation before countries that faced tragedies in their history, and these states will demand that France adopt similar laws, which in turn might worsen relations between Turkey and France, as well as disrupt peace and stability in the South Caucasus".

After that, on 4 May, the French Senate held a plenary session, rejecting the bill with 196 votes "against" and 74 "for". Although the day after this event, French Justice Minister Michel Mercier announced his intention to prepare a circular which provides for sanctions for denying the Armenian genocide, it is unlikely to be able to soften the bitter taste of the French pill.

Another disappointment befell the Armenians on 24 April, this time in the Russian capital. The annual traditional "mourning" march in Moscow was attended by only 15-20 people. According to the organizers, the small number of attendants was the result of the ban imposed by the Moscow police on the rally. However, the Moscow police said that there was no ban.

At the same time, the national council of the Crimean Armenian Society was not allowed to organize a mourning march to mark the "Armenian genocide" in Simferopol. In addition, the state broadcasting company Krym refused to broadcast a documentary about the "Armenian genocide". Although initially STRC Krym planned a live broadcast with the participation of historians, experts, representatives of the Armenian and other societies - a roundtable on issues of the "Armenian genocide" - the company refused to broadcast it later.

In light of the above, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan made a strange statement during an official visit to Switzerland. During a meeting with Swiss President Micheline Calmy-Rey, expressing gratitude to the Swiss authorities for their invaluable efforts as an intermediary in the Armenia-Turkey negotiations, he placed all responsibility for the failure of this process on Ankara. According to Serzh Sargsyan, instead of taking steps towards the ratification of the protocols, Turkey is trying to drive a wedge between Armenia and the diaspora. But following Serzh Sargsyan's logic, Switzerland can be accused of the same thing. After all, Switzerland is the initiator of the Zurich protocols which the Armenians believe are the main obstacle to the recognition of the "genocide". Therefore, it is a fact that serious contradictions between Yerevan and the Armenian diaspora exist without any assistance from Ankara or anyone else.

Many Armenian experts believe that the tactics of the Armenian diaspora to exploit the issue of the "Armenian genocide" in the Armenian-Turkish process are fundamentally wrong. In particular, the director of the Analytical Centre for Globalization and Cooperation, Stepan Grigoryan, said this in his speech at the 3rd Baku Forum on Security on the South Caucasus in December last year. The differences on this issue existing both in Armenia and in the diaspora were pointed out by the well-known Russian political scientist, Andranik Migranyan: "There are differences between various Armenian political parties, as well as at the state level. Armenia's president said in an interview with Turkish television that the recognition of the genocide is important for Armenia and material or territorial problems can be raised only by the diaspora - this is not the position of the Armenian state." No less noteworthy is a statement by the same Migranyan (incidentally, a zealous supporter of the recognition of "the Armenian genocide") issued in September of 2009: "Relations with Turkey will provide Armenia with an opportunity to look to the future with optimism. When I was young, I formulated the question of the Armenian genocide and Armenian-Turkish relations as a rusty nail in the minds of the Armenians. We need to get this rusty nail out, get rid of the constant feeling of psychological victims, become confident, fully grown and spiritually strong, look to the future and not depend on the past." However, the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan, who considers the problem of recognizing the "Armenian genocide" as a serious geopolitical factor influencing regional and global processes, believes that Armenians throughout the world must skilfully use it. As an example, Safrastyan cites America in which the Armenian lobby is the most active: "In fact, our fellow Americans are using the Armenian question to influence US policy not only in relation to Turkey, but also to the region as a whole. With the efforts of the diaspora, real successes have been achieved in the European Parliament and in many EU countries." The Turkologist Akop Chakaryan is sure that before the Armenian leadership withdraws its signatures from the Zurich protocols, it should carefully examine the mood of the political circles of leading powers in order to determine whether the final rejection of the protocols can positively affect the process of the recognition of the "genocide" in order to derive maximum benefit even from the process of annulment. Apparently, the Armenians themselves see the "Armenian genocide" as an instrument of political blackmail, and not only with regard to Turkey.

Moreover, some parts of the diaspora do not hide their intention to capitalize on the fictional myth. The non-profit organization, the Memory Centre in Glendale (California), sued the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March this year on the grounds that "Armenian assets, called Turkish gold" were seized during the "Armenian Holocaust". The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, having carefully studied the evidence submitted, said in its response to the complaint filed with the federal court in Manhattan that the claims of the centre are disputable and asked the judge to reject the suit and rule that the Armenian group pay the legal costs of the bank.

In a situation where baseless Armenian claims are not supported at the international level, the Armenian government decided to sweeten the bitter taste of the defeat at least at the local level. To this end, the victims of the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire were granted a monthly financial allowance of $68. The allowance will be paid only to those victims of the "genocide" who have Armenian citizenship and were born before 1915 in the territories of "Western Armenia" and in other localities which formed part of the Ottoman Empire at the time. We wonder how many citizens above 96 there are in Armenia. Won't it be too expensive for Armenia, mired in debt, to pay such a "large" amount every month?