A DELIBERATE MISTAKE?

Russo-Turkish relations have become considerably more complicated since the start of the Russian operation in the skies over Syria. Turkey is a member of NATO and therefore the Russian Federation and North Atlantic alliance armed forces are currently coming into dangerous contact.

 On 3 October the Turkish Air Force discovered a Russian aircraft in the region of the city of Yayladagi in the southern province of Hatay, and after it had been intercepted, it headed out of Turkish airspace in the direction of Syria. Two days later the Turkish General Staff reported that on 4 October 10 Turkish fighter planes patrolling the frontier with Syria encountered an unidentified MiG-29, on their radar, which had its radar tracking two F-16 fighters. The 

Turkish officials were not too happy about this incident. The Russian ambassador to Turkey was twice summoned to the Turkish Foreign Ministry for explanations. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu demanded that Moscow respect the principle banning incursion into the country's airspace and added that all violators would be intercepted.

To justify itself, Russia stated that its fighter had entered Turkish airspace owing to a navigation mistake due to unfavourable weather conditions and also provided assurances that it would not happen again. According to Moscow, the aircraft found itself over the territory of Turkey after making a scheduled military flight, when doing a manoeuvre over a mountainous, forested area to return to Heymim aerodrome which is approximately 30 km from the Turkish-Syrian border. As far as the incident with the Mig is concerned, the Russian Federation asserts that there are no such aircraft in the Russian Air Grouping operating in Syria, but that Syria and Iran do have these fighter aircraft in their arsenal.

 But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Russia's explanations were unconvincing. Official Washington stated that the incident looks like a provocation. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also believes that Russia's violation of Turkey's airspace does not appear to be accidental. At an emergency session of the NATO Council, the participants demanded that Russia cease the invasion of Turkey's air space, noting that such irresponsible behaviour is extremely dangerous. "We cannot tolerate that... NATO's stand remains unchanged. According to that standpoint, any attack on Turkey will be regarded as an attack on NATO," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said during his visit to Belgium. US State Department head John Kerry backed up Erdogan's words, stating that they were very concerned because it is precisely in such circumstances that Turkey defends its rights, and this means that they might shoot down (Russian Air Force) aircraft. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also recalled that the alliance is prepared to protect its allies from any threats and is already discussing with the Turkish government whether it needs any additional assistance. US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter expressed the NATO's steadfast adherence to Turkey's security. Thus, NATO and Turkey clearly defined their right to shoot down violators of the air space and also provided a reminder of the alliance's principle of collective security.

But naturally everyone understands that the aircraft is only a pretext, while it is really about something quite different. Erdogan refers to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a sponsor of terrorism and the main person who is to blame for the stream of refugees into Turkey and Europe; [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is supporting al-Assad, thereby causing an escalation of the conflict, according to Turkey. Ankara's standpoint is similar to that of the USA, the NATO member-countries, most of the European Union [EU] countries and a number of states in the Middle East, namely that Russia's actions are delaying the transition to a political settlement of the situation in Syria. Besides this, Turkey was one of the seven countries that agreed among themselves that, instead of combating IS, Russia is carrying out air strikes against the Syrian opposition and civilians. Foreign Minister Davutoglu recalled that Russia had previously been opposed to foreign intervention in Syria and had blocked the UN Security Council Resolution.

With such a tense situation among all the forces present in the region there is hardly any coordination. Judging from the commentaries, there is only a certain amount of technical cooperation and then only because no-one wants senseless losses and a drastic escalation of the situation. Russia is continuing to step up its military presence in Syria and around it. The media are reporting the deployment of "Krasukha-4" electronic warfare systems which are capable of completely shielding a defended facility with early warning systems for a distance of up to 150 to 300 km and also capable of carrying out radar-guided strikes, using electronic combat systems. The cruiser "Moskva" which is equipped with state-of-the-art S-300 ship to air anti-aircraft complexes, is located in the Mediterranean Sea opposite Latakia. Earlier, Russian-planned exercises were held in in this part of the Mediterranean with missile and artillery drills. Besides this, on 7 October the ships of the Caspian flotilla inflicted strikes on Syria from a distance of approximately 1,500 km from the Caspian Sea with 26 "Kalibr" cruise missiles of the complex, which was the first time that long-range cruise missiles similar to the American "Tomahawk" missiles had been used. The Western and Turkish media justly note that such military "toys" are not necessary even to combat cut-throats like the IS fighters. This is obviously a demonstration of strength or preparation for something else, namely taking the opportunity to show the seriousness of its intentions in the Middle East. 

The words of the West to the effect that Russia is not only carrying out air strikes against IS targets indirectly confirm the build-up of Russian military might in the Middle East as well. Naturally there are far more American and NATO warships and military aircraft concentrated in the above-mentioned region than Russian ones. But no-one, you see, wants a direct military confrontation, and, as a result it turns out that Russia is blatantly challenging the superiority of NATO and the capabilities of the countries in the region. Moscow is showing that it may not be in control of the skies, but it is present in the skies over north-western Syria and along the Turkish frontier where Turkey was in favour of a no-fly zone. 

This presence points to a direct statement of a trade-off - is the Russian Federation saying that it has to be taken into account and this means taking into account the Russian-backed Bashar al-Assad? What this means for Turkey can be understood if we recall the episode exactly three years ago, when in October 2012 Turkish Air Force fighter aircraft had to force an A320 aircraft on a flight from Moscow to Damascus to land in [the Turkish capital] Ankara. According to the reports of the Turkish authorities, the Airbus was carrying Russian-made ammunition destined for the Syrian Defence Ministry. If, in two words, Moscow is entangling Ankara in all its strategy regarding Syria, then the situation in Turkey itself where parliamentary elections are to be held in November will become even more heated. Erdogan needs to win in these elections, and the Syrian and Kurdish issues may either provide him with more votes or seriously deplete votes for him. At this moment, the Turkish president simply cannot display weakness in foreign policy, no matter what the explanation might be.

Turkey and Syria share an almost 1,000-kilometre-long common frontier. At the present time, there are more than two million Syrian refugees in Turkey. The head of the main operational administration of the Russian Armed Forces' General Staff, Andrey Kartapolov, reported on 3 October that, after the air strikes on IS, the al-Nusra Front and ??? "Dzhash al yarmouk", the fighters are abandoning the areas of Syria controlled by them. Whereas hundreds of thousands of refugees managed to get to Turkey easily, better financed terrorists are probably even freer to get there. The Turkish Air Force is moreover actively taking part not only in carrying out air strikes on the IS positions but also on the fighters of the Kurdistan Workers' Party and its Syrian wing, the Democratic Unity Party (DUP), as well as in Northern Iraq. The current chaos in Syria means that a Kurdish state may appear on the Turkish frontier, bordering on the semi-independent Iraqi Kurdistan and will boost the spirits of the Turkish Kurds a great deal.

The Syrian Kurds, who are not generally pro-American like their kinsmen in Iraq, are supporting the Russian operations against IS. But Turkey is becoming ever more anxious, possibly because in principle it does not understand what Washington's plans with regard to the Kurds are. This issue has already caused friction between the two NATO allies. The situation is so complicated that it is providing fodder for the most daring suggestions; on the Turkish social networking websites rumours are even spreading that a secret plot between Russia and the USA exists with regard to this issue.

Certain accords to which the media are not privy undoubtedly exist regarding the region; for, you see, there was some discussion between Putin and Erdogan in Moscow not very long before the incidents with the aircraft occurred; it is obvious that they did not just talk about the weather and the beauty of the Cathedral Mosque there. There are constant contacts between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia, in spite of the fact that the Saudis have stated their intention to increase their assistance to the three different groups of rebel forces in Syria that are waging the struggle against al-Assad's army. The cruise missiles' trajectory went across the territories of Iran and Northern Iraq, from which it may be understood that the USA is not against collaboration between Russia and Iraq on this issue.

Finally, against the backdrop of all that has happened, a strange silence is being observed on the part of Israel, which is a direct neighbour of the conflict zone and has always been an active participant in the fateful events in the Middle East. They are trying to present what is happening as a confrontation between the Sunni and Shiite worlds, but in actual fact it is more likely that yet another redistribution of forces in the region is taking place. In protecting their own stakes in the game, as the first week of October has demonstrated, Turkey and Russia are even prepared to risk spoiling good bilateral relations. In this situation it just remains to paper over the sore points and watch what will happen with regard to them.

There can be no doubt that the first thing to suffer from the growing crisis between the Russian Federation and Turkey is economic ties. Both Russia and Turkey equally stand to be at a disadvantage from this. Erdogan has warned Russia that Moscow stands to lose a great deal if it has arguments with Ankara, threatening that Turkey will stop buying Russian gas and halt the building of the Russian-designed "Akkuyu" nuclear power plant as well.

Erdogan stated that they [Russians] have invested 3bn dollars in the plant, so it was of greater concern to Russia. As far as the natural gas is concerned, we are consumer No. 1 of Russia's gas. For Russia, loss of Turkey's custom would mean a big loss, he said.

It is quite understandable that this is a sensitive issue for Russia. Turkey is the second biggest Russian gas customer after Germany. The "Turkish Stream" pipeline, a Moscow project, was to be a worth-while alternative to the "Southern Stream" gas pipeline. But the intergovernmental agreement on the gas pipeline's construction has not yet been signed. On 6 October, it was learned that "Gazprom" had decided to withdraw from constructing half of the "Turkish Stream's" capacities; Moscow and Ankara could not moreover agree on the discount to be offered on Russian gas. The signing of the agreement on the construction of the third and fourth sections of the "Northern Stream" pipeline at the beginning of September is boosting Russia's confidence. But pressure is starting to be brought to bear on Russia in this respect. On 8 October, the commissioner for EU climate and energy policy, Miguel Arias Canete, stated that the "Northern Stream" project does not satisfy the European Union's strategy to diversify sources and routes for gas supplies, since it increases Europe's dependence on a single supplier and on a single pipeline.

But the growing economy of Turkey which does not have a large amount of its own energy resources, is seriously dependent on imports of gas from Russia. Russia ranks second on the list of Turkey's foreign trade partners after the European Union. Besides this, the above-mentioned projects would tie Russia to Turkey to an even greater extent from an economic point of view, and that is always a handy lever for exerting pressure. Instead of that, Turkey will now think about how it is going to adapt to the new reality ensuing from the military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean of Russia with its reserves of hydrocarbons, on which a number of regional countries are keeping a watchful eye. Besides this, there is the Gulf of Iskenderun in this region where Turkey has a naval base and an important commercial port.

So, was the violation of Turkey's air space on the part of Russia a technical mistake or was Russia testing its own important trade partner from a military point of view? Besides this, the Russian side has checked the state of Turkey's (NATO's) radar systems; Moscow is currently observing how Turkey is interpreting the incident - as its own private matter or as a matter concerning the North Atlantic alliance? One would think that many of the further steps that the Kremlin takes depend on that.