A DORMANT EVIL

Socially trouble-free and politically stable Kazakhstan has once again become a target of terrorism. The town of Aktobe in western Kazakhstan was subjected to a terrorist attack by religious extremists. About 20 people went on the attack, seizing weapons from two gun shops, unsuccessfully tried to break into a military base and eventually infiltrated a base of the Kazakh National Guard. In the shoot-out with the extremists six members of the National Guard were killed and over ten wounded. A level yellow terrorist alert was imposed all over Kazakhstan. All security personnel were put on alert, security measures were stepped up at all airports and patrols beefed up along the whole perimeter of the airport and adjacent areas.

There are a number of versions of what actually occurred - from an order by some third country aimed at destabilizing the domestic political situation to plans by Salafis to storm Aktobe maximum-security prison, which is holding arrested Wahhabis.

This is not the first case of terrorism in Kazakhstan, where religious extremism is gaining momentum. It is said that the Wahhabis regard Aktobe as the capital of a future Central Asian caliphate, a kind of "Kazakh Mosul". A situation of a counter-terrorist operation has been imposed in Aktobe Region. R+ discussed the threat of terrorism to Kazakhstan's political stability and regional security with Sanat Kushkumbayev, Dr of Political Sciences and chief research worker at the Kazakh Institute of Strategic Studies.

- How did it happen that the Kazakh security forces allowed such a large-scale terrorist attack?

- This was not the first instance of a terrorist act in this region. Five years ago, for the first time in Kazakhstan's history, a group of terrorists carried out a terrorist act in Aktobe Region. Some time later, there were terrorist acts in Almaty Region, in the central regions, in Astana and other parts of Kazakhstan. According to confirmed reports, this was the result of activities by radical religious groups. Religious extremism is a common trend in the world. What is happening in the Middle East, Central Asia and Afghanistan is, naturally, happening in Europe, too, and there is a build-up of radical religious groups in the countries of the former Soviet Union.

- What was the main objective of the terrorist acts in Aktobe? 

- No organization has officially claimed responsibility for the attacks in Aktobe. Basically, it is difficult to trace the activities of so-called extremist "sleeper" groups. This could be a narrow circle of people who have suddenly become active and decided to make themselves known and it is quite possible that this is how they are presenting themselves. It is very difficult for the security forces to trace groups who are "dormant" and have not shown signs of activity up to a certain time. And it is by no means definite that they had close links with international terrorist organizations, such as al-Qa'eda, ISIL, Jabhat al-Nusra, and so on. It could well be that the group in Aktobe was a local one which, by carrying out terrorist acts, wants to earn an "entrance ticket", so to speak, to international terrorist organizations. We have published a list of the extremists who were killed or are on the run in Aktobe. Almost all of them are young people who advanced rapidly along the path of religious radicalization and then became terrorists. There are no grounds for suggesting that they were pursuing any specific political objectives. No-one has made any declarations and no-one has set any conditions, ultimatums or anything else. The one obvious fact is that the attacks on the various targets were with the aim of possessing weapons.

- In the past terrorist acts have often been linked with the Uyghurs, who fled to Kazakhstan from China. There are videos on the web of Uyghur Salafis in which they make no secret of their intention to create a caliphate. The whole outward appearance and ideological rhetoric of the Uyghur Wahhabis is on a par with ISIL.

- There is no hint of an Uyghur trace in the events in Aktobe. Virtually all the participants in the attacks who were killed or are on the run are citizens of Kazakhstan and from Aktobe Region. We know their first names, surnames, birthplaces and addresses…there is no Uyghur factor.

- How are the radical religious groups made up? They seem to have their own emir. Some reports say that the "founders" were graduates from religious educational establishments in Arab countries.

- It is hard to find a direct link with religious radicalism and Islamic universities in the Middle East or in the Persian Gulf countries. Usually, the people who join extremist organizations have a superficial knowledge of religion. They are illiterate in the religious sense. The emergence of radical groups is the result of an incorrect interpretation of religion, and not the fruits of the work of prestigious religious educational establishments that are recognized in the Islamic world. There are people in Kazakhstan who have been convicted of criminal offences for activities linked with religious extremism. Usually, on leaving prison, they again try to knock together a group and attract young people of immature mind and people who have been influenced by extremist views.

- How quickly did the law-enforcement agencies respond? Were they prepared for such carnage in broad daylight in various parts of the town?

- Judging from how the anti-terrorist operation was carried out, it could be said that the security forces were relatively quick to localize and neutralize the terrorist attacks. If automatic weapons had got into the hands of the terrorists the consequences could have been very grave. You have to realize that the group was quite a large one. The soldiers of the National Guard inside the military base were able to repel them and the terrorists failed to break through to the weapons stores. Some of the attackers were wiped out there, others managed to escape and several were arrested.

- Is there effective monitoring of religious communities in Kazakhstan?

- That's a very difficult question. There is a Committee for Religious Affairs and an official Islamic High Council, but how do you monitor the conscience of religious people? It is hard to define the level of radicality of the views of members of the communities. The main thing is to try to prevent believers being taken in by religious extremists. They are doing all they can to attract as many people as possible into their ranks. And radical ideologies are, as a rule, contagious and very inviting. All kinds of people end up in extremist organizations. There are no definite criteria. As well as people with social problems, people who are disillusioned, there are people who are quite well-off, irrespective of their sex or ethnicity.

- In the context of what happened in Aktobe, how vulnerable is our region to international terrorism? Regional security is currently being maintained relatively successfully but there could be "sleeper" groups in parts of the Caucasus and Central Asia.

- I don't think the problem is that our region is next door to hotbeds of terrorism. Afghanistan and Pakistan are prey to terrorist organizations. These countries are simply at the attacking end of the extremists. Although our countries are not on the front line, they still incur damage from terrorism. There are no countries that are sources of terror and none that are victims of terror. Terrorism is a common challenge, and it concerns all states to a larger or lesser degree. Even Europe has not been able to avoid this dangerous phenomenon. Terrorism in Kazakhstan did not begin yesterday and will not end tomorrow. The threat today is not from outside, from any neighbouring states, but a split within society. It doesn't matter if this state is secular or Islamic. In Kazakhstan, as in other countries of the region, there are citizens who are fighting in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. When they come back, having had experience of battle, they can become proponents of extremist ideas.