29 March 2024

Friday, 18:51

WAITING THE STATUS QUO TO CHANGE

Interview R+ with former Co-Chairman to the OSCE Minsk Group, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, former US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza

Author:

01.08.2016

OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier did pay a working visit to South Caucasus and actually, he discussed here the solution of frozen conflicts. How could this visit contribute to the solution of NK conflict?

In my experience, visits by OSCE Chairpersons-in-Office have not had much of an impact on mediation of the conflict. While important in showing the enduring commitment of the OSCE to maintaining peace and pursuing a political solution of the conflict, in practice, the Chairpersons-in-Office have failed to follow through with practical leadership to energize the Minsk Group process.

Perhaps Minister Steinmeier will be different. Maybe he will see mediation of the conflict as a way to welcome Russia back into the West’s diplomatic fold.

Could we expect any changes on this conflict in near future? 

We should always expect changes in every aspect of life. As for this specific conflict, I hope we will see a solidifying of the most recent cease-fire and perhaps some meaningful confidence-building measures. But, I don’t expect any progress toward a political settlement of the conflict in the near-term.

We witnessed escalation of the violation in the Contact line on April. What about the possibility of this incident to be happen again? Even during his visit to the region Mr Frank-Walter Steinmeier mentioned that Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has the potential to escalate and the status-que unsustainable. 

Of course the conflict has the potential to escalate. But, this will only happen if one or both sides takes a conscious decision to escalate. I disagree with officials and experts who warn that the conflict could spontaneously spin out of control absent a specific decision by one side or the other. That said, it is always possible that a provocation by an outside actor could lead to miscalculations that lead to serous violence, especially now that so many heavy weapons have been stationed along the Line of Contact for the first time since 1994. But, the ability of either side to make major military gains on the ground remains limited. Thus, stumbling into full-scale war is unlikely.

How do you asses Saint Petersburg meeting of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia presidents?  

Positively. Though I doubt President Putin is motivated by a desire to resolve the conflict, I acknowledge the positive role he has been playing to help Presidents Aliyev and Sarksain reduce military tension and restore stability along the Line of Contact. At the same time, I see no evidence of any progress toward finalizing the Basic Principles of a political settlement, which have been on the table since the OSCE Ministerial meeting in Madrid in late 2007. 

Last days Russia and Turkey relations are become warmer. Even Erdogan's apology to the Russian pilot`s family is connected with this approach. What reason of these steps?

First of all, President Erdogan would argue he did not make an apology; rather, he expressed regret at the killing of the Russian pilot. President Putin, however, chose to interpret this statement of regret as an apology.

Frankly, I long anticipated that this would be the way this dispute would be resolved (and spoke repeatedly on the record about this). Both presidents wanted to end this dispute, but without looking week to their voters. For President Erdogan, Russian economic sanctions were hurting Turkey’s tourism industry and agricultural sector, even if not having a deep and negative impact of the Turkish economy. For President Putin, Russian consumers were suffering from their lack of access to high quality and reasonably priced holidays in Turkey and Turkish food products; and Russia risked losing its second largest natural gas export market.. So, the key to helping both Presidents achieve what they both wanted was to come up with a formula that allowed Putin to claim he received an apology and Erdogan to claim he had not technically apologized.

I have strong reason to believe both Presidents received advice — including from business leaders — to pursue such an approach.

İt happened teror attacs in Turkey. Are the latest terror attack which happened in the Atarurk airport related approchment Turkey-Russia-Israle cooperations?

In a tactical sense, it is possible that the ISIS terrorists who perpetrated these attacks chose June 28 because of the diplomatic breakthroughs that occurred the previous day in Turkey’s relations with Israel and Turkey. But, in a strategic sense, ISIS attacks were and will remain inevitable, in Turkey at least until ISIS is destroyed in Syria and Iraq and even more serious steps are taken within Turkey to disband the terrorists’ support network.

Generally, can we consider that this terror attack related to previous incidents, it related Turkey policy?

It is impossible to know for certain what motivated these cold-blooded murders, other than their radical, Islamist, and un-Islamic ideology, coupled with their personal psychopathy and inherent criminality. But, Turkey was deceiving itself if it believed it could escape ISIS terrorism on its soil by refraining from the fight against ISIS. The fanatics of ISIS seek to reestablish the Caliphate, with one of the most prized targets being Turkey, the last seat of the Caliphate.


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