DESPERATE MANEUVERS

After the four-day April skirmish on the Armenian-Azerbaijani frontline in Karabakh, the mediation efforts aimed at peaceful settlement of the conflict and the intensity of dialogue between the parties have intensified. However, the negotiations paused in August. The foreign ministers of interested parties failed to meet last month as it was originally planned. This could be due to summer vacations but, in fact, the real cause of decelerated peace negotiations was the aggravation of internal political situation in Armenia.

Throughout the second half of the summer, Yerevan was held in suspense after the capture of Patrol and Inspection Service regiment by a group of armed radicals calling themselves “Sasna tsrer”. This resulted in deaths and injuries of some persons but after long negotiations, the radicals were persuaded to surrender. In early September, the government of Hovik Abrahamian resigned, as was predicted almost by all the local media and political analysts. The Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan instructed Karen Karapetyan, one of the top managers of Gazprom and the ex-mayor of Yerevan urgently recalled from Moscow, to establish the so-called “National Consensus Government”. Armenian media had already unanimously predicted the resignation of the Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian (presumably to be assigned as a new ambassador to France), who had long ago became and object of ridicule, and his replacement by Vigen Sargsyan, the head of the President Administration. Presumably, the head of the Customs Service Hovik Hovsepian, Minister of Agriculture Sergo Karapetian, and the Minister of Health Armen Muradian will also resign.

It is rumored that the Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian will also sign a letter of resignation. The defeat in the April skirmish resulted in resignation of several generals, and although Seyran Ohanian was not directly accused of failures, it is clear that he is the person primarily responsible for the outcomes. A meeting of the leaders of CSTO member states is expected to take place in mid-September in Yerevan. This meeting should be remarkable with the approval of the new Secretary General of the organization. According to General Bordyuzha, the incumbent Secretary General, he will be replaced by an Armenian representative. Seyran Ohanian may be nominated to this post under the pretext of freeing him from his current position of defense minister and, more importantly, expel him from Armenia. After all, Ohanian has recently imagined himself to be the next president of Armenia, which confronts the plans of the incumbent president Serzh Sargsyan regarding the configuration of power after the completion of his term in 2018.

No matter who will be the Armenian representative as the new Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, this fact will not play a special role in the Karabakh conflict. As stated in Yerevan by acting Secretary General of the organization Nikolay Bordyuzha: “CSTO neither interferes in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict nor in other conflicts. Other institutions under the auspices of the UN seek the solutions to these conflicts. We can only help resolve these conflicts through political means”. As for the appointment of Armenian representative, this does not depend on the importance of the country, rather is based on adopted rotation rule in accordance with the Russian alphabet. CSTO Secretary General carries out organizational and technical functions, not political or military-command ones. This military-political alliance cannot be compared to NATO. It is only an umbrella framework for Russia, which has the real power and influence in the region.

Obviously, the Armenian President and his team are facing with difficult challenges. Russia has traditionally had a prevailing opinion in Armenian politics and is strongly recommending Armenia to withdraw its troops in exchange for lasting peace and open communication. The ratio of demographic, economic and military potentials between Azerbaijan and Armenia are not comparable and do not leave Armenia any chance to survive in case of resumption of large-scale war. Armenia will inevitably be defeated without direct aid of Moscow, and Russia does not want to be directly involved in the war supporting the Armenians, as this would jeopardize mutually beneficial relations of Russia with Azerbaijan. Therefore, the powers traditionally patronizing Armenians are trying to reason the latter to go for compromises.

The trouble, however, is that the Armenian authorities had long cultivated in the population an absolute confidence in the superiority of own armed forces. Armenians had instilled the idea of victory in Nagorno-Karabakh and they had to wait until Azerbaijan would be forced to accept the loss of the region. This sort of irrational propaganda efforts have resulted in deformation of Armenian public opinion as far as the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani territories is concerned. The Armenian politicians, analysts and media are shifting the focus of problem trying to demonstrate that Armenia is allegedly forced to territorial concessions in exchange for the liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani lands in Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, the actions of Armenians have all the signs of aggression and armed seizure of the territory of the neighboring country contrary to international law. This kind of actions are normally supposed to be punished, as was the case of Iraq after the occupation of Kuwait. On the contrary, Armenians demand a premium in a similar situation trying to legalize the secession of Nagorno-Karabakh and other occupied Azerbaijani territories.

The Armenian Diaspora declares even more radical territorial claims. They are insistently screaming about the inadmissibility of withdrawal of Armenian forces from Azerbaijani territories, qualifying it as a surrender of “sacred boundaries”. Neither do the international law and the real balance of power matter for them nor do they take into account desperate financial and economic situation in Armenia, which is being abandoned by crowds of impoverished and deprived people. As noted by Novruz Mamedov, the Head of External Relations Department of the Presidential Administration on his Twitter account: “There are Armenians, who live in many countries around the world in a comfortable environment, and are happily fighting for their Motherland while the other part living in Armenia is enduring the “punishment” at home”.

Meanwhile, President Sargsyan continues his traditional double play. He tries to use the radical protests, who categorically oppose the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories, thus pretending to extend the negotiations and delay the inevitable solution by all possible means. On the other hand, he knows that in case of reaching an agreement on the Karabakh settlement, it would be necessary to neutralize violent radical groups within his compatriots. Therefore, he is trying to isolate them in advance. Yerevan gradually encourages the anti-Russian rhetoric, expresses dissatisfaction with the sale of weapons to Azerbaijan, and the refusal of Moscow to ensure full support to Armenian territorial ambitions. At the same time, Sargsyan signed and was able to ensure parliamentary ratification of the Armenian-Russian agreement on joint air defense, and agreed to establish a joint military group, which will include the 102nd Russian squadron and the Armenian Army Corps, covering Yerevan and Meghri.

Reformatting of government started by President Sargsyan and aimed at ensuring control over the supreme power after the completion of his term in 2018 is used as a plausible pretext to delay negotiations process, which presumes an inevitable withdrawal of Armenian troops from at least the most of the occupied Azerbaijani territories. However, his capacity to maneuver has been steadily shrinking. This prompts Sargsyan to send signals camouflaged in strong rhetoric to the society loaded with rabid nationalist ideas. After a peaceful resolution of the situation in Yerevan, Mr. Sargsyan said in a broad conference with the participation of government members, party leaders and deputies: “Unilateral concessions to reach the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem are not possible. No way! Nagorno-Karabakh will never be a part of Azerbaijan! No way! I repeat it again – no way!”.

The statement sounds quite categorical at first glance. But it does not contradict an equally strong position of Azerbaijan, according to which Nagorno-Karabakh will never be handed over to Armenia or become independent. According to the Madrid principles, which form the basis of current proposals, the first stage of the peaceful settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh's status remains open and is subject to further negotiations. As for concessions, in reality they are not one-sided. The withdrawal of Armenian forces puts certain obligations on parties: avoidance from using forceful means of conflict resolution, as well as the implementation of security enhancements, including the withdrawal of heavy equipment from the contact line, the establishment of a demilitarized zone, introduction of peacekeeping units. An important bonus for the Armenians will be the opening of communications with Azerbaijan and Turkey, without which the economy of Armenia is suffocating in the grip of a transport blockade.

The trade-off approach requires mutual concessions but it cannot be a shield guaranteeing victory for any of the parties. The Russian President Putin, who is the moderator of negotiations process with the consent of the other two co-chairs of the Minsk Group, has clearly outlined Moscow's position on this issue: “Russia does not impose the conflicting parties ready-made solutions. We encourage both Baku and Yerevan to find a compromise, without winners or losers, to follow the spirit and the letter of agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg”.

On September 8, the heads of OSCE Minsk Group from Russia, France and USA - Igor Popov, Pierre Andrieu, James Warlick, as well as the Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman Andrzej Kasprzyk held a discussion in Moscow on the current situation in the peace process. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov later received the delegation. We assume that after the consultations the mediators will travel to the region and prepare concrete proposals for the negotiations of the foreign ministers of the conflicting parties. In case of a positive outcome of these visits, they will prepare for the meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

It is obvious that the main aspect of the current situation is to start the real settlement of the conflict, which begins with the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Any further delays not only create insurmountable barriers to cooperation in the region but also increase the risks of war. Recently, at the informal meeting of European foreign ministers in Potsdam, the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov has declared directly: “The long-term conflicts in the region impede cooperation. The territorial integrity and inviolability of borders of Azerbaijan are no less important than the territorial integrity of other countries, the members of the “Eastern Partnership”.