A FOOT AWAY FROM RECONCILIATION

Thanks to the efforts of the leaders of Greek and Turkish communities of Cyprus, a settlement to Cypriot dispute is closer than ever before, said Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary General after the meeting with the President of Cyprus Nikos Anastasiadis. A meeting between Anastasiadis and the President of the unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Mustafa Akinci with the UN Secretary General, the US Vice-President and State Secretary, the British Foreign Minister, the President of Turkey and others was the culmination of intense negotiations between both Cypriot leaders held in Nicosia since June 2016. Judging by the statements of Anastasiadis and Akinci, the conflict, which has started more than 40 years ago and brought the two NATO states (Greece and Turkey) on the brink of war, creating a real threat of religious, ideological and even civilizational war of continental scale, is now very close to a mutually acceptable resolution. This is a rare event in today's world. Both leaders have expressed their determination to go all the way towards the achievement of compromises, which were so hard to achieve in the past. Now the Turks and Greek Cypriots, who had been looked at each other through the "green" dividing line of UN peacekeepers, barbed wire, and armed detachments of "blue helmets", will have to learn to live together in harmony in the Cyprus Federation. The well-known political analyst Ahmet Sozen describes the reconciliation efforts of Greeks and Turkish.

- How come that among the surviving conflicts of the 20^th century like those between Arabs and Israelis, Indians and Pakistanis, Armenians and Azerbaijanis, only the Greeks and Turks were able to reach an agreement?

- This is a personal achievement of the leaders of both Cypriot communities. We hope the political will and courage of Anastasiadis and Akinci will lead to the establishment of the Cyprus Federation. This is the last chance for a peaceful and prosperous future of Cyprus. If they fail, we can forget about all hopes for a peaceful Cyprus forever. Any delay in this matter will make all the efforts and hopes for the resolution of the Cyprus issue invalid.

- Anastasiadis says that it will be possible to sign a peace treaty before the end of this year...

- I have a little doubt about the timing. But theoretically it is possible. It is likely to have a roadmap on the subsequent settlement process at the upcoming meeting between the two leaders. Then, both sides will join to develop the final version of the agreement, which will be submitted for discussion and a referendum in both communities. This process will continue until the beginning of 2017.

But we have not much time to reach the peace. The upcoming election campaign for the presidential elections of 2018 starts next year in South Cyprus. It is hard to expect any negotiation during the election campaign. On the other hand, oil companies attracted by the Greek Cypriots will start exploration drilling on the offshore gas field in the Mediterranean in 2017. This is a very sensitive issue. A few years ago, Turkey sent seismic ship "Barbarossa" for exploration of the same ​​field. In response, the Greek Cypriots have left the negotiations on Cyprus. Nicosia considers the gas field of its own. The same is true for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, which believes the gas deposits is a national heritage. This may disorganize the whole process of settlement of the Cyprus question. At the same time, the unresolved question is prone to make the attraction of foreign investment in the development of these deposits problematic.

- What do the ordinary Greeks and Turkish Cypriots think about this issue?

- Turkish Cypriots want to get rid of the existing isolation and become part of the European community, while at the same time they want independence. Everyone understands that the creation of two independent states on the island is not possible. So, the Turks are in favor of a federal structure, where they can express their political will. The Greek Cypriots would like to have a unitary state, which would restrict the rights of communities, and would be governed by the majority of ethnic population. But they understand that this is a dead-end, so they also agree with the federative status of the country. Both communities understand that two states or a unitary state is impossible. The remaining option is a compromise, meaning a federal state. If this pragmatic path becomes a reality, it will be a very valuable political experience, a model of conflict resolution in the world today. It will be an example of peaceful coexistence of two communities of different religious confessions, languages in the Middle East. Cyprus is closer to this region than to Europe. So, this can become a unique example.

- What are the positions of powerful states in the region: the United States, the EU, Turkey and Russia? Are they looking for a compromise or a bargaining agreement like concessions in the Cyprus issue in exchange for some concessions in the Syrian conflict?

- Such bargaining is possible behind the scenes of ongoing negotiations between the global players. The US had had a long-term endeavor in solving the Cyprus issue, pushing both sides to take decisive actions to achieve peace. Russia's position is somewhat different. Moscow also supports the peace process, but does not want to lose leverage in the region. The Kremlin does not want this region under a full control of the West and NATO. Russia may create obstacles to slow down the process of settlement, but it will not be possible to disorganize the process completely. Possibilities of Russia are not as extensive as say in the South Caucasus. Arrangements between the centers of power are quite possible, but it is difficult to guess the framework and issues discussed.

- How will the leadership of the Cyprus Federation be formed. How will the army of the united Cyprus look like?

- It is expected to form a bicameral parliament with equal representation from both communities in the upper house, the Senate, and a proportional community system in the lower house. The bills will have to pass through both houses of the parliament. The Constitutional Court will also have equal distribution of judge seats based on ethnic representation. The executive branch of power will be a rotary presidential position. This issue is still under discussion. The army will be symbolic. Perhaps, Cyprus will become a neutral country outside military blocs. The issue of security guarantees from Greece and Turkey is a matter of debates, too. By the way, Turkey has consistently supported the negotiations mediated by the UN. Ankara has explicitly  contributed to advancing the negotiations and supports political solution of the Cyprus problem.

- How will the process of integrating lives of the Turks and the Greeks go? There are people on both sides, who had experienced sufferings and hatred.

- This is the most difficult part of the settlement. You can sympathize with the leaders of the Greeks and the Turks, who will have to convince their people of the need to forget the past. The wars between the Germans and French killed about 20 million of people just in the 20^th century. However, these countries have been able to create the basis of the greatest community of nations, the European Union. There are no borders and hatred between the French and Germans today. If both the Greek and Turkish Cypriots fail to clean the hatred and malice at their homes and schools, it will be very difficult to reach peace and harmony. However difficult it may, we have to do it.

- How will the relations between Cyprus and Turkey shape?

- Ankara and Nicosia have to conclude a diplomatic agreement on friendship and good-neighborliness. By the way, in case of federation, the Northern Cyprus will have to stop using the Turkish lira, as it will enter the Eurozone, which covers the Greek side of the island.

A series of intensive talks will take place in the next two months, in which a set of decisions about the formation of the new government, compensations for property lost during the wars of the 60-70s, the organization of law enforcement agencies, etc. will be adopted.