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MAYDAN CANCELED

Currently, there is no power capable of uniting and organizing people for the next revolution in Ukraine

Author:

01.12.2016

It just so happened that the end of November has become a sort of threshold and a period for wrapping-up collective achievements and failures for Ukraine. The “orange” revolution of 2004 and the Euromaidan of 2013, which are only days apart despite a difference of a few years, were attempts of the Ukrainians to make a difference. Or, as put by the current president, Petro Poroshenko, in his decree to celebrate November 21 as the Day of Dignity and Freedom, it was during those events that his fellow citizens “have demonstrated their Europeanness, the dignity, and the desire for freedom.” The question is whether it is possible to sum up the achievements of the past events clearly and adequately. After Euromaidan and the ensuing war in the southeast of Ukraine, the headlines of mass media has been full of news covering the events in this country. But recently, due to the escalation of events in Syria, migration crisis in Europe, the Brexit and presidential elections in the US, Ukraine has somewhat lost its role as a major international “newsmaker”, although the country is still boiling with events. After all, even though the “orange” heroes are almost gone from the scene, the three-year-old wounds are still bleeding. Speaking in drama terms, many acts of the play are still in development, perhaps even reaching the climax. Furthermore, some people still insist with fears (and perhaps hopes) that Ukraine will soon experience yet another Maidan. Why does this happen and is there really a possibility of new protests?

November 21 is the date many people have major concerns about the new wave of protests. Indeed, many cultural and entertainment events have planned to hold on this day, but not all was in the festive mood. For example, defrauded investors were protesting in front of the National Bank demanding the resignation of the Chairman of the NBU, Valeriya Gontareva. Meanwhile, the members of Azov regiment were trying to ask questions to President Poroshenko about his administration. The representatives of radical organizations, including the “Right Sector” and OUN, waited until the evening and tried to set tires on fire at the Independence Square. They were pushed off, but then broke the windows of one of the Sberbank offices and destroyed a beauty salon instead, as they could not get to the office of the leader of the public movement Ukrainian Choice, Victor Medvedchuk. New Maidan, as predicted by some observers, did not happen, although the events demonstrated visual differences with those happened three years ago. If in 2013 the ordinary citizens of Ukraine were willing and fully committed to fight for the European choice of the country, they paradoxically demonstrated a considerable apathy with ongoing processes due to significant drop in the level of their welfare as opposed to the foreign policy vector of Ukraine.

Indeed, according to many experts, Ukraine still remains in the pre-default state. Bloomberg has ranked the country as one of the five most “miserable economies of the world” (based on inflation and unemployment rates). GDP per capita is only 20% of the EU average, which is the second lowest among the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The welfare of Ukrainian households decreased by 18.5% in 2015-2016 amidst greatly reduced production and trade rates. Trying to somehow fill in the budget, the authorities have repeatedly raised utility tariffs, so that the people have already nicknamed the receipts as “shock-bills.” According to the UN data, 80% of Ukrainians live below the poverty line (with less than $5 spending per day).

Therefore, it is not surprising that Ukraine is struggling to make ends meet, as far as the budget is concerned, with the help of international donors, mainly the IMF. In September, the Fund made a decision to allocate to Kiev the next tranche of $1 billion. However, the payments were detained until the Rada adopted the draft state budget for 2017, which would be almost impossible to implement without the promised payment. As always, the IMF provides funds under certain conditions, which Kiev struggles to match. The conditions concern land, pension and tax reforms, the revision of utility tariffs policy, continuing the fight against corruption, etc. However, in the beginning of November, the National Bank of Ukraine warned of a possible failure to receive the IMF money because of the deceleration of reforms in the Verkhovna Rada. “If we do not get the next installment, our reserves will begin to melt before our eyes”, honestly warned the Chairman of the NBU, Valeriya Gontareva. After all, Kiev will have to cut costs and to finance the budget by the National Bank loans without the help of the IMF, which means the devaluation of the hryvnia and the rise of inflation.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian Finance Minister, Alexander Danilyuk, believes that the country has no urgent need for IMF money. In an interview with Politico, Prime Minister, Vladimir Groisman, also expressed confidence that Ukraine embarked on a new path after a long difficult period and conducted internal reconstruction. Among the achievements, he mentioned the realigned banking sector, improved government procurement system, freed prices for gas within the country, and established guarantees for the independence of the General Prosecutor's Office and the establishment of anti-corruption agency. The last achievement is emphasized particularly. It is believed that the focus of reforms is the anti-corruption measures in the Ukrainian political system. An online system through which officials now declare their personal property was commissioned in late October. Everyone – from petty officials of the state apparatus to the President, revealed the revenues. Thus, Poroshenko declared 23.7 million Euros, Groisman – 913 thousand Euroes, Interior Minister, Arsen Avakov, - several apartments and a collection of works of art and antiques. However, the effect of such exposure of personal finance was twofold. Although foreign donors appreciated such honesty, the ordinary Ukrainians, the main holders of shock-bills, were annoyed. So, it is still a question if such methods of anti-corruption struggle are essential and timely.

People's trust in Ukrainian authorities is at a record low level. According to the opinion poll by the Centre for Social Researches, Sofia, 70% of respondents have negatively assessed the activities of the President, Prime Minister, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the Attorney General, and the Chairman of the National Bank. Never the composition of the Verkhovna Rada did have such a level of public distrust as now. The survey conducted by SOCIS in April 2016 showed that the Parliament is trusted by only 0.7%, more trusted by 8.4%, and not trusted at all by 90% of respondents. Perhaps the reason is a complete confusion in government circles, when the officials spend many efforts to oppose each other than to common efforts. Volatility of political alliances becomes a tradition, as former friends quickly turn into enemies and allies betray each other or change their views.

On the other hand, everyone wants to take use of the moods prevailing in the society to their advantage. This is especially demonstrative by the key Ukrainian political figure, Mikheil Saakashvili. Having failed to build a “dream state” in a particular (and very charismatic) Odessa region of Ukraine, he made a nasty resignation from his post of the governor, but is not going to go anywhere. Calling his colleagues “grabbers” and “hucksters”, he said that in the last few years the Ukrainian oligarchs “have stolen from the people of $5 billion.” And that even after the departure of President Viktor Yanukovych the situation not improved, but worsened. In his interview with the Georgian Rustavi-2 TV, the former President of Georgia and the governor of Odessa region told about his plans to expand the activities of the “anti-corruption forum in Ukraine.” We can only guess what he will achieve with his new plans. Also, despite Saakashvili’s active opposition to Poroshenko and his accusations against the head of the Bloc Petro Poroshenko, Igor Gryniva, of developing the Shatun (Crank) Plan to destabilize the Ukraine, some believe that Poroshenko and Saakashvili work in pair. Allegedly, Saakashvili helps Poroshenko to pull votes from the still popular Yulia Tymoshenko. Given that Saakashvili and Tymoshenko, in fact, use the same slogans, maybe it is true. As for the mysterious ‘crank’, it is described as a plan to prevent pro-government street protests by disgruntled citizens or as the Kremlin’s ruse aimed at destabilizing the situation in Ukraine until the change of government and the failure of the EU visa-free regime for Ukrainians.

In the latter case, the leader of the Batkivshchyna, the former Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, who openly calls defrauded investors and everyone discontented with high utility bills to take to the streets to express their protest, can be accused of treason. The leader of the Radical Party, Oleg Lyashko, so did, demanding to deprive Tymoshenko Ukrainian citizenship and called her “a pro-Russian Cuckoo.” Meanwhile, according to a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), if the elections were held in November, Tymoshenko would receive 21.3% and Poroshenko only 18.5% of the votes in the first round. If the elections for the new composition of the Verkhovna Rada were held in the near future, the following parties would overcome a 5%-threshold: Batkivshchyna (9.7%), Opposition Bloc (8.5%), Block Petro Poroshenko (8%), Self-Reliance (6.4%), and the Radical Party (5.9%).

So, there is only one conclusion for the moment being: currently, there is no power capable of uniting and organizing people in Ukraine. There are simply more or less popular politicians. Therefore, there is no reason to be afraid of a new Maidan as a tool to combat one political power against another. It is unlikely that a new Maidan will soon rise from the depths of the people, as it needs a leader(s) and a beautiful common slogan, similar to the one triggered in the past for European integration. The reasons such as dissatisfaction with the living standards and higher utility bills are unpopular and unromantic, and the people is accustomed to them for a long time. Such calls for a ‘revolution’ do not ignite the popular minds anymore. Also, one should also take into account that Maidan can happen not in the capital city but in the regions. This scenario cannot be ruled out. The winter is close, and depending on how it takes place, it will become clear how Ukraine meets the spring.

At the same time, two external factors can have a significant impact on internal situation in the country. The first is the introduction of a visa-free regime with the EU, which would blow off some steam in the community by taking part of the disgruntled off the Ukrainian border. However, it seems Brussels is well aware of this and slow in acting. It is noted that France, Germany and some other European countries intentionally inhibit the visa-free regime with the Kiev authorities, as they are afraid of public reaction amidst the unprecedented influx of migrants from the Middle East and North Africa. So, the EU countries are harmonizing the mechanism for terminating the agreement with Ukraine in case of an emergency situation. Another important external factor is  the relationship with the US, where the results of the recent presidential elections were a shock for the majority of Ukrainian politicians, because the president-elect Donald Trump at different times promised to consider removing anti-Russian sanctions, and even did not rule out the possibility of recognizing the Russian Crimea. In an interview, Trump directly said that he “hates the Ukrainian question.” He also did not agree with the general intention of the Republican Party to transfer weapons to Ukraine to fight the rebels in the south-east of the country. Of course, the Ukrainian politicians, like many others, relied on Hillary Clinton, and Trump was accused of pro-Russian moods. Immediately after November 8, many of them had to erase their posts in social networks. Poroshenko called on the American president-elect “to further strengthen the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States” and recalled “the importance of continuing support to Ukraine.” Ambassador of Ukraine in Washington, Valeriy Chaly, said that there plans to organize a visit of Poroshenko to Washington in February 2017.

Thus, in parallel with internal situation, the effect of external factors on Ukraine will develop in a more or less clear picture in the middle of winter, maybe even closer to winter. Of course, unless there is nothing extraordinary that is likely to turn everything upside down. Therefore, even after three years, it is too early to wrap up the results of Euromaidan.



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