RENUNCIATION OF THE PRESIDENT

The Republic of Korea is the latest country where the head of state faces impeachment. As in other similar situations, the renunciation will definitely affect not only the internal political situation in the country, but also its international stance.

President, the President's daughter

Last time when South Korea suffered such a serious internal political turmoil was in 1979. During his 17 years in rule, then President Park Chung-hee had implemented impressive reforms, which earned him the fame of the architect of the Korean ‘economic miracle’. However, this did not save Park Chung-hee from the growth in the number of his enemies, who opposed the authoritarian government. On the wave of democratic movement, Park Chung-hee was assassinated by the head of the Korean intelligence...

37 years passed since then. Again, mass rallies and demonstrations are skyrocketing throughout South Korea. Now the object of popular discontent is President Park Geun-hye, the daughter of the ‘father’ of the Korean miracle. Luckily for her, and all of South Korea, she is not threatened with murder but still had to leave the office of the president.

Park Geun-hye is unique in that she became the first female president in the history of the Republic of Korea. She once performed the duties of the First Lady since her mother was shot during one of the attempts on the life of her father. After her father was assassinated too, she left politics focusing mainly on charity and environmental projects. After almost 20 years, the supporters of Park Chung-hee organized the Grand National Party, later renamed to Saenuri – the New Frontier Party. They persuaded Park Geun-hye to participate in the 1998 parliamentary elections. Largely thanks to the unfading glory of her late father she won in her constituency but in later years was re-elected to the parliament several times. Under her leadership, Saenuri won a landslide victory in 2012 elections, and guaranteed nomination for the president. In December 2012, Park Geun-hye won the presidential election.

However, the daughter of Park Chung-hee did not become a successful president. In 2016, Saenuri lost the parliamentary elections, which was an indication of skepticism among majority of the citizens to presidential policies. Perhaps, Park Geun-hye could still regain her image in the eyes of her compatriots. But then there was a thunder, which knocked her out of the presidential chair and shook the supreme power throughout South Korea.

President’s girlfriend

The reason for the failure of Park Geun-hye is her best friend, Choi Soon-sil, the daughter of the famous religious leader Choi Tae-min. As it turned out, Park Geun-hye has long been under the influence of this family, and Choi Soon-sil has actively exploited her proximity to the president. Park Geun-hye allowed her friend to make changes in presidential speech, to coordinate the resignation and the appointment of ministers. Although not a government employee, Choi Soon-sil had access to classified documents. But the scandal is not only about the boundless influence of this woman on her friend, the president. She is also accused of corruption, namely knocking money from large corporations for her own funds.

No wonder that hundreds of thousands of South Koreans took to the streets in protest against the arbitrariness of the impostor skillfully conducting the president's actions. Under public pressure, Choi Soon-sil was arrested and the parliament launched the impeachment procedure due to abuse of presidential power. 234 out of 300 members of parliament were in favor of the renunciation of President Park. Among them are more than 60 representatives of the ruling party, which means that Saenuri renounces the discredited president in an effort to maintain its key position in the political life of the country.

The fate of Park Geun-hye now depends on the prosecutor's investigation and decision of the Constitutional Court. A specially appointed prosecutor has three months to deal with all the charges brought against the ousted president. Then the court will investigate the case within 180 days and make the final verdict. So, the trial may last up to 9 months. Until that time, Park Geun-hye will still hold the title of president, live in the presidential palace, and keep her secretaries. But almost everyone in South Korea has no doubt that these will be her last days as the president, and the country is expecting early presidential elections, given that the removal of South Korean presidents and associated judicial investigations is not a rare phenomenon in the political practice of the country. Only two of the five predecessors have managed to avoid the attention of law enforcement agencies since 1988. These facts increase the likelihood that after the impeachment, Park Geun-hye will be prosecuted. When electing her the next president in 2012, South Koreans believed that she would save her impeccable reputation and would not jeopardize the memory of her father, Park Chung-hee. Especially considering the fact that Park Geun-hye has no family and children – the relatives was the main factor that pushed former presidents to corruption.

Who will be the next president?

Acting head of the Republic of Korea until the final verdict of the court is the Prime Minister of South Korea, Hwan Kyo-ahn. This former employee of the prosecution is considered a politically neutral figure, who can be very useful in the difficult transition period. However, early presidential elections is likely to be held in the country in the coming year, and therefore the experts give various forecasts in this regard. According to most of them, the ruling party is significantly weakened due to the removal of the president, and it does not help even a possible nomination of the current UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, whose mandate expires on 31 December, will not help her.

The left politician, Moon Jae-in, is the favorite of expected early elections. He was the opponent of Park Geun-hye in the 2012 elections. If he comes to power, there may be some changes in the foreign policy of Seoul, the effects of which are already thoroughly analyzed the concerned among the international community.

First of all, it is assumed that the relations between North and South Korea will become warmer. During the years of the Park presidency, these relations have been brought almost to the brink of armed conflict, and, as it became known, Choi Soon-sil has also played her part in this. The coming of the left policy to power in South Korea may give green light joint projects with DPRK. In any case, Moon Jae-in supports the renewal of "Sunshine Policy", i.e. appeasement of North Korea. One of the steps in this direction can be a review of the decision of the South Korean cabinet to deploy American THAAD missile system on the territory of South Korea. Officially, the system is designed to intercept North Korean ballistic missiles but Russia and China see it as a direct threat to their security. However, if the program is abandoned, Seoul risks falling out of the US favour, its main strategic ally and the security guarantor ensuring South Korea’s nuclear umbrella. Especially since the new Trump administration will apparently take a tough stance against North Korea.

Anyway, the geopolitical orientation towards the United States has taken such deep roots in South Korea's strategy that it is difficult to suggest a possible cooling of relations between them. It is also difficult to imagine radical rapprochement between Seoul and Pyongyang, which have deep political and ideological contradictions.

However, the essence of events ongoing in South Korea is not related to possible corrections in her foreign policy line and even the alleged reshuffle in the balance of political forces within the country. What is important is the fact of the impeachment of South Korean president, who is an indicator of a developing democracy, as well as an indicator of the precariousness of political stability in many other countries, like we have observed in recent years in a number of other countries, in particular Paraguay and Brazil.