29 March 2024

Friday, 17:23

A TURNING POINT

2017 may become a turning point and foretoken of tough pragmatism

Author:

15.01.2017

The new year of 2017 began with uncertainty. The main "culprit" is in Washington preparing to take over the office of the 45th US president on January 20. Europe is in the dark as to what to expect from the elections in key EU countries including Germany, France and the Netherlands. The Western countries witness the rise of far-right sentiments, nationalism, and anti-globalism. Many experts on both sides of the Atlantic agree that the world order established after the Second World War has destroyed with an intense distrust to powers of supranational institutions, primarily the UN. We have a new format of relations, and all countries, including the world’s leader US, are trying to adapt to new conditions and to take the most advantageous position. Therefore, we can expect many local conflicts through regional redistribution of spheres of influence in 2017. The opposition between the leading actors will increasingly take place on virtual platforms. The statements of American intelligence about the Russian involvement in the cyberattacks during the recent presidential campaign in the US is most likely not just the specifics of bilateral relations between both countries but the beginning of the series of major international cyber conflicts. An army of online trolls, hackers, and prankers not limited to geographical boundaries will form a new and always uncertain geopolitical reality.

Thus, 2017 will be the answer to the question of how and in what direction will the US foreign policy change. Will Mr. Trump stop US interference in internal affairs of other countries? Will he support the worsening of relations with China? Will he dare normalize relations with Russia and remove or mitigate the sanctions? And most importantly, what are the reasons of these actions? Does it really mean that America's global leadership has reached the top? In order to normalize the dialogue, both Russians and Americans at least need to reach a consensus on Syria and Ukraine. This will form the image of 2017. At the same time, the plans of the new host of the White House may cause even more division in the US domestic political life. There will be a variety of populist initiatives, such as the withdrawal of California from the US, which is absolutely unserious but very symbolic. The popularity of Trump can plummet. Even now, according to Opinion Research Center’s poll results published by The Independent, 51% of Americans are dissatisfied with the President-elect’s actions.

Trump’s statements alarmed China in advance. We can expect some moments of extreme tension between Beijing and Washington, particularly over the issues in the South and East China Seas but we can hardly expect direct or indirect collisions even as a full-blown trade war. The world community will watch with interest how the Trump administration implements (or justifies the rejection of implementation) the promises such as building a wall on the Mexican border or withdrawal from the TTIP. The important point for the overall situation in the Middle East will become the kind of relationship that the Trump administration develops with Israel, given that his predecessor, Obama, did not get along well with this traditional US ally.

The migrant crisis in Europe can develop unpredictably in 2017. It is possible that environmental refugees especially from Africa will add to people fleeing from war. This forces European politicians to hold a more rigid stance and to regard the issues of safety as a top priority. The analysts, who overlooked the symptoms of popular protest against the establishment in the United States and Europe at the beginning of the year, now predict a strengthening of this trend. The popularity of extreme right-wing parties, nationalist sentiments, and Euroscepticism will increase. It is very interesting to see the outcome of the elections in Germany, France, the Netherlands, and possibly, in Italy. In Germany, the victory of Angela Merkel, who decided for a fourth term, is predicted. However, her conservative CDU party continues to lose popularity. The same is true for the Social Democrats. Alternative for Germany (ADH) will try to be ahead. However, under conditions of uncertainty on the eve of German elections (September-October) more events may occur which can potentially prevent the unsinkable Chancellor from re-election. In France, it is likely that the former Prime Minister François Fillon of the bourgeois party the Republicans and Marine Le Pen of the  National Front will go toe-to-toe for the presidency in late April and early May. Sociologists now firmly believe (and convince others) that Le Pen, who promises Frexit (or at least the withdrawal from the Euro-zone) and special relations with both the EU and NATO cannot win. But it is the same sociologists that did not believe in the possibility of Brexit and Trump’s overwhelming victory. This seems especially likely, as Fillon is unpopular among the leftists with his slogans. This can attract the electorate to Le Pen. Or, Fillon will be forced to listen to Le Pen’s statements and to some extent try to be like her. It is, therefore, not surprising that the upcoming elections in France are called the European Stalingrad. In the Netherlands, the victory of the nationalist right Freedom Party led by die-hard Eurosceptic Geert Wilders in the parliamentary elections in March will not be a surprise. This is quite possible to expect from the electorate, which has previously rejected the EU Constitution and the agreement on association of Ukraine with the EU. Italy will remain in the grip of a political crisis. The former prime minister, whose initiative on the constitutional reform was rejected in a referendum, is still the most popular politician in Italy. He can resist the populist Five Star Movement led by the comedian Beppe Grillo. In the UK, it is expected that the Brexit will enter into an active phase in March with a likely event that the Prime Minister Theresa May is replaced with a candidate more suitable for the governance of the country under existing circumstances. New referendums in Europe on other issues, as well as the revitalization of separatist sentiments are possible with Catalonia ahead of this trend.

Iran is one of the main countries to hold presidential elections in 2017. It is likely that the current president Hassan Rouhani is not able to be re-elected and continue the moderately reformist course. Whether he has a competitor from among conservatives depends to a large extent from the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamnei. The sanctions against Iran are not cancelled yet, and they put pressure on Tehran in particular in Iran’s financial sector. In addition, Trump promised to withdraw the United States from the agreement on the Iranian atom. Given the desire of official Tehran to strengthen its position in the region and its role in the Syrian conflict, Iran could be one of the newsmakers of this year.

Russia is interesting because Mr. Putin will finally reveal his future plans. In addition to security and foreign policy, Moscow's main problem continues to be the economic situation. Many discussions will take place around the 100th anniversary of the October Revolution of 1917, which is perhaps the most fateful date in Russian history. Incidentally, on November 7 will be opened a message addressed to the Communists of the future, which is kept under a sign attached to the building of the former military electronics company Musson in Sevastopol. Similar messages are kept in the other cities of the former USSR.

We will not witness peace in Syria in 2017. The country will most likely fall under a category of "no peace, no war", as in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. The Syrian issue may become less hot issue on agenda of world politics, same as Ukraine in 2016. In late January, it is planned to hold a peace conference under the leadership of Russia and Turkey in Astana. Moscow and Ankara do not want to fight in this country forever but both wish to consolidate their interests. However, the United States led by the Trump administration still have their say. Obviously, it will not be possible to conduct serious negotiations with the parties to the conflict without the Americans. Same as in 2016, the ISIS will gradually lose influence and power but a complete victory over it seems unlikely. The militants will return to the previously left settlements inventing new methods of survival.

Therefore, the terrorist attacks in 2017 can happen anywhere. The terrorists will continue to use new tactics. If 2016 remained in history with mass attacks on vehicles, this year we can expect something new. Perhaps the world will witness new assassinations similar to the murder of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey. It is of utmost significance to demonstrate vigilance for countries that have managed to avoid large-scale terrorist attacks in 2016 such as Russia, the USA, Israel. Turkey, which has suffered more than any other country in 2016, is likely to continue to be a target for radicals. The situation may aggravate the political situation in the country, where the referendum on constitutional amendments is expected in early April. This is supported by President Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The situation in East Asia around the disputed islands in the South China Sea, North Korea, and Taiwan remains tense. The political crisis in South Korea continues. We can witness unrests in Latin American countries, particularly in Venezuela and Brazil.

In the post-Soviet territory, the political crises may occur in Ukraine and Moldova, Armenia (parliamentary elections are expected in spring this year), Kyrgyzstan (presidential elections). Unfortunately, the most dangerous zones of a military confrontation remain the areas such Donbass and the Nagorno-Karabakh. The South Caucasus countries will watch the new US administration closely to build a dialogue.

 

Thus, the overall image remains to be quite tense but still leaves room for optimism. 2017 can be a turning point and foretoken of tough pragmatism when economic benefits and private security will be paramount to guarantee relative stability.



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