THE NEW ESCALATION

The armed conflict in the Donbass, which continues for nearly three years, intensified again in late January. The fights at Avdeyevka and in the direction of Mariupol with all available types of weapons, including armored vehicles and artillery, have been the most violent since August 2015. However, it is possible that the fights will considerably intensify in the future.

Meanwhile, it is difficult to know for sure what is going on at the south-east of Ukraine, as there is no reliable source of unbiased information. Even the US President Donald Trump seems to be confused. He has honestly admitted absence of information in his interview to Fox News: «We do not know exactly what's going on." Much depends on when and how Trump’s sorts out the Ukrainian issue, including the choice between two extreme scenarios: a military intervention or political decision? But even the latter option is bound to a risk serious escalation. Many experts believe that Moscow and Washington could reach to some sort of an agreement stipulating that the real solution to the conflict is the replacement of main actors on both sides, which basically means they will resist.

On the one hand, during a telephone conversation with Poroshenko on February 4, Trump has promised to collaborate with Kiyev and Moscow and all parties involved in the conflict to "restore peace along the border." The new US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley in her first speech at the UN Security Council has accused Russia of escalating events in Donbass. Meanwhile, judging by the statements of Trump, he has still not a clear plan of actions regarding the situation in Ukraine. He has not yet decided if the militia in the Donbass is controlled by Russia and he still does not know "who is who and how they behave." Moreover, during his presidential campaign, Trump badly frightened Kiyev with his statements, including the well-known one on the Crimea and said that he might ease sanctions against Russia. Therefore, there are some fears that the current US administration may actually leave Ukraine alone recognizing it within the vital interests of Russia. According to some US media, the Kremlin is preparing an agreement with the White House on Ukraine, however, the spokesman of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov has categorically denied these allegations.

The same source reports that Russia is guilty of the current escalation, using the uncertainty of the Trump's administration about its Ukrainian strategy. Some American media, including the Washington Post, believe that Putin tests Trump. Senator John McCain also indicated the same in his open letter to Trump. Stratfor, in turn, is confident that the Kremlin is preparing to leave Donbass connecting this assumption with the murder of the commander of "Somalia" battalion Mikhail Tolstoy (Givi) on February 8, and wants to get rid of witnesses of intervention in eastern Ukraine, as previously happened with Arseny Pavlov ("Motorola"), Alexey Mozgov ("Ghost") and others. Moscow denies these assumptions, which are very popular in the foreign media, however, as reported by the German newspaper Bild. Earlier, Foreign Policy called the deaths of warlords as "a preparatory stage for the political solution of the Ukrainian question."

If indeed there is an agreement between Russia and the United States, Europe is unlikely to seriously intervene. The UK is dealing with the Brexit, while France and Germany are preparing for the elections. In addition, the German Ambassador to Ukraine, Ernst Reichel, said recently that “not necessarily that the elections in the Donbass can take place only when there will be no Russian troops, or on each city will be posted the Ukrainian flag." These words caused a flurry of indignation and resentment in Kiyev. Because now even the Western media assumes that Ukraine itself could start fighting to get back on the international agenda, which in fact she did, or for the sake of sanctions against Russia. So, Foreign Policy magazine (FP) is quite straight in the following statement: "Ukraine is making increasingly frequent incursions into the "gray zone", which is no man's land along the front line."

Meanwhile, one can observe the usual aggravation of political battles in Kiyev. Poroshenko, who was friends with all active foes of Donald Trump in the US, is going to visit Washington. Suddenly, in his interview with the German Berliner Morgenrost, he has announced the holding of a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to NATO in the near future. The Ukrainian experts believe that this way the president is trying to work out some kind of idea to gather his supporters and, most importantly, to resist unsinkable Yulia Tymoshenko, who continues to demonstrate enviable political obstinacy.

The leader of All-Ukrainian Union Fatherland (Batkivshchyna) is again the number one newsmaker. She has even managed to beat Poroshenko meeting with Trump first, while the Ukrainian president is only going to visit the United States. And if Trump says that he does not know what exactly is happening in Ukraine, Tymoshenko stated that the White House was "absolutely clear" about the situation in Ukraine and assured her in the "full support." Tymoshenko was able to talk to Trump during a brief meeting during the traditional National Prayer Breakfast on February 2 in Washington. However, the close circle of Poroshenko claim that Tymoshenko and Trump were noticed handshaking only, and there were too many people eager to touch Trump anyway. Anyway, Tymoshenko has achieved what she wanted. Recently, the ‘first lady’ of the Ukrainian politicians also called on the parliament to dismiss the "unprofessional and corrupt" government and to pass a bill on "occupied territories", martial law, the cease of all trade with the territories beyond the control of Kiyev such as the Donbass, and even formally declare war on Russia. The Russian media has immediately suggested that the feverish activity of the former prime minister was associated with her desire to get rid of any pro-Russian notion she has been accused of so far. Otherwise, Poroshenko has no other tools to make his rival fall down.

Nevertheless, the war in the eastern Ukraine continues and it is not limited to weapons only. Advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Zorian Shkiryak stated that ten thousand people were killed in the Donbass as a result of the armed conflict. However, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, more than one million people became refugees. The Donbas residents are unable to receive social benefits and pensions for the long period, and the United Nations has expressed its discontent with this fact. Thus, it is no surprise that the rest of Ukraine suffers the growing economic crisis and the constant increase of the number of the poor. The resumed fights will inevitably increase the number of victims and casualties. It is terrible that even the determination to adhere to political settlement of the conflict does not guarantee peace in the region.