29 March 2024

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"100 STEPS" AWAR FROM THE POWER

Political scientist Marat SHIBUTOV: "Kazakhstan shifts to the presidential-parliamentary system"

Author:

15.02.2017

Recently, the all-time leader of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev surprised the public community with a statement about his intention to share the power with other branches of the government.

This was an unprecedented fact in Central Asian region. Since the country gained its independence from the USSR, Nursultan Nazarbayev has served as a guarantor of stability in Kazakhstan. He is credited to be a visionary and pragmatic leader who has strengthened his country on the international arena. Therefore, his statement was interpreted as Nazarbayev’s preparations for the transfer of power. Reading the comments in the Kazakh press, it seems the decision was made under the influence of events in Uzbekistan, where the issue of power transfer was hanging in the air for some time. Under the proposed scenario, Nazarbayev transferred some of his powers to the parliament. By the way, it is the same scenario used in Kyrgyzstan after the bloody battles for the presidency – the parliament’s powers were extended by large, thus limiting the powers of the president, which made the domestic political arena of Bishkek sort of quieter. At the end of 2016, Kyrgyzstan held a referendum on amendments to the Constitution that would form the first parliamentary republic in Central Asia. In fact, Nazarbayev does not transfer the power to parliamentarians, as the main government institutions including the army, law enforcement agencies, and the foreign policy will remain under the president’s control. The socio-economic sphere is shared between the parliament and the government. Nazarbayev has made no secret that he intended to work at least until the end of his current term, namely the next three years. So, what did prompt one of the most influential leaders of the former Soviet Union to limit his own power?

We have interviewed a Kazakh political scientist, Marat SHIBUTOV, about the changes in the branches of power in Kazakhstan:

- Why was it so necessary for Nazarbayev to share his power? He has been running the country well for the last three decades...

- In fact, Nazarbayev has presented earlier a project of institutional reforms named the "100 steps". This assumes the liberalisation and democratisation of the entire state system. The existing super-presidential system is able to function properly at high oil prices. Otherwise it is ineffective and must switch to a parliamentary-presidential system. That is exactly what Nazarbayev suggested. It was a consistent step explicitly formulated back in 2016.

- How will the change of governance actually take place: presidential decree, referendum or some sort of a national assembly? It is a very sensitive issue since the Parliament may wish to have more powers. It can get the powers that extend its own powers. A similar situation has led to a war between the president and parliament in Russia in 1993.

- All strategic issues of power redistribution are now dealt with at the lowest level, within a workgroup. Nazarbayev has conducted a public discussion. The population is invited to submit suggestions to the working group. There were also meetings with the representatives of regions, media coverage and so forth. I mean the people can make suggestions individually or collectively. The future law on redistribution of power will be amended with the most relevant of these suggestions / proposals. The rank of discussions will increase gradually: from the parliamentary commission to parliamentary discussions.

- Do you believe there is risk of conflict between the president and a more powerful parliament? Why does Nazarbayev need to repair the state system when it works properly?

- The fact is that all the power in Kazakhstan is concentrated in the hands of the president and his team. Quite often, the executive branch of the state has taken wrong decisions disapproved by the local population. Such decisions were supported by certain lobbyists. Now, Nazarbayev creates a balance of powers. He offers an interaction with other branches of power in decision-making process.

- A very important point, by the way. Will president retain his authority to dissolve the parliament? How will the government be formed?

- These questions are not completely defined yet and are subject to debate. It is assumed however, that the government will formed by the party winning the parliamentary elections. It is still unclear how the powers will be distributed. It is likely that there may be unexpected decisions.

- If the government is formed by the winning party, it is purely a parliamentary republic. Are not you afraid of mess and troubles associated with forming the government, which is so inherent of such republics?

- That is true. Therefore, Kazakhstan moves toward a presidential-parliamentary system. The country will not be without a government. This is one of the key questions elaborated within the working group. In particular, one of the options is that a party having the simple majority in the parliament forms the government.

- What was the reaction of population? A whole generation has grown up under the authority of a single person, Nazarbayev.

- The population reacted quite calmly. It is interesting that people send their proposals to the working group; at the level of civil society, political parties are discussing. In general, the public accepted the presidential statement positively. They understand that the changes will serve for good only.

- Do not you think it is dangerous to decentralise the power of the president, whose country is neighbouring with the Taliban and shows signs of terrorist activities?

- Modern Afghanistan has become a simple horror story. This country can do no harm to anyone anymore. Regarding the political situation, the erroneous decisions of different branches of government is far worse than the damage that terrorists can cause, as the latter can be fought with and eliminated. On the contrary, the mistakes of the president and the parliament affect the entire nation and its future.

- Does Nazarbayev have a successor?

- Currently, there is no one who could be regarded as the successor to Nazarbayev. None in his environment, nor in the domestic political sphere. Nazarbayev is still conducting reforms. He has been able to involve more or less active political forces to discussions, particularly the systemic opposition. He sent them a message: if it is the power that you want, send your proposals! Everybody is actively involved in this process.

- And why the president has the power structures and foreign policy?

 - It is still unknown which institutions will remain under his control. The package of proposals is constantly changing. It is likely that the Parliament receives a completely different version of proposals presented to the public community. The president gave an idea only; a preliminary version was made up by the working group.

- When is the new format of Kazakhstan’s state system disclosed?

- February 26 is the last day for the reception of proposals, followed by a 30-day period to generalize them properly. After that, the draft will go to the Parliament.

- Do you expect that the powers of the Speaker of Parliament and Prime Minister be expanded?

- Of course. It is interconnected with the overall expansion of legislative powers.


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