FROM ASTANA TO GENEVA

Following a relatively successful outcome of the negotiations Astana, the situation in Syria is still balancing between the chances to continue the peace process and a grim prospect of dipping into a new round of brutal war. The liberation of Al-Bab from the Islamic State (IS)te" (IS) and the start of regular talks between the representatives of Damascus and the Syrian opposition in Geneva, Switzerland is a major shift in the breakout of the Syrian crisis.

Al-Bab is free. What about Raqqa?

The Turkish army played the most significant role in almost complete liberation of the Syrian city of Al-Bab from the IS militants. The liberation was possible thanks to the military operation "The Euphrates Shield" launched by Ankara in August 2016. The objective was to protect Turkey from the security threats coming from both the IS and the Kurdish terrorist groups.

The control over Al-Bab was established after more than two months of fierce fighting between the Turkish troops, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) supported by Turkey and the terrorists. Al-Bab is located 30 km from the Turkish border, and almost the same distance from the newly liberated Aleppo. It was the last major stronghold of the IS in the north of Syria. However, the capture of Al-Bab is important for Turkey in the context of its fight against the military troops of the Syrian Kurds, whose objective is to establish the Kurdish autonomy in the northern territories of Syria together with PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), a terrorist organization outlawed in Turkey. The liberation of Al-Bab has prevented the joining of the Kurdish cantons Afrin and Kobani, hence weakening the position of the self-proclaimed Kurdish autonomy in the north of Syria. It was also a win-win situation for Damascus, which does not recognize the Kurdish autonomy within the internationally recognized boundaries of Syria.

The offensive on the city of Raqqa, proclaimed by the notorious Islamic State as their capital, could well be yet another milestone in Turkey’s fight against both the IS and the Kurdish groups in the context of international anti-terrorist efforts. In fact, the "capital" of the IS also under the offensive of the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) mainly formed of the Kurdish militias. They get support from the US and the European allies. Therefore, many experts believe that the advancement of the Turkish troops in the northern Syria could lead to the unleashing of yet another war front in the Syrian conflict, namely the Kurdish-Turkish.

Thus, the stance of the United States is extremely important in this situation. The Obama administration has heavily supported the Kurds in the Syrian war, and, in fact, demanded that SDF releases Raqqa. This has cooled the relations between the US and Turkey, both the NATO allies. Now, the new President of the United States has to actually make a choice between the Kurds and Turkey in the course of the settlement of the Syrian crisis.

Currently, the question is how the liberation of Raqqa will take place. The Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım made it clear that the tactics previously used for the liberation of Al-Bab could be used in Raqqa as well. This will be a joint operation of the Turkish Armed Forces and the FSA troops in the northern Syria. However, Ankara is sending signals to Washington that it is ready to discuss the terms of the Raqqa operation. Moreover, Turkey has proposed to place a limited US military contingent in the territory to support local security forces in Syria. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that such a proposal was presented to the head of the US Armed Forces Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford during his recent visit to Turkey.

However, the interaction between Turkey, Russia and Iran was more effective in terms of the settlement of the Syrian crisis. It majorly contributed to the reversal of the situation in this Middle Eastern country, which had lost hundreds of thousands of lives in this six year old relentless and fratricidal war.

The Troika Factor

It is believed that the substantial intensification of Turkey in the Syrian conflict is the result of Ankara’s agreements with Moscow. Restoration of the strategic partnership between Turkey and Russia is clearly visible in the Syrian conflict although in previous years, both countries had different views on a number of important issues, including the political future of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, Russia and Turkey have managed to eliminate tactical contradictions, instead focusing on the issues of equivalent strategic significance for Moscow and Ankara. These include joint support of the internationally recognized principle of territorial integrity, sovereignty and unity of the Syrian state. Russia and Turkey have achieved a military breakthrough in the Syrian conflict, which resulted in the successful liberation of the cities of Aleppo and Al-Bab from the terrorists. It is no coincidence that the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has underlined the absence of any disagreements between Ankara and Moscow as far as the Operation Euphrates is concerned.

Meanwhile, the official ally of Damascus, Iran, continues to exert a strong influence on the situation. Tehran has expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that the Shiite militia, who made a great contribution to the liberation of Aleppo turned derived from the city, which is now controlled by the Syrian army and Russian military experts. In addition, Iran does not hide its concern about the promotion of Turkish troops deep into Syrian territory, during which Ankara relies on Sunni militants from the FSA.

Turkey and Iran have even exchanged diplomatic Due to specific differences on the Syrian issue, Turkey and Iran even exchanged a set of diplomatic quips. During his recent visit to Bahrain, the Turkish leader has accused Iran of seeking the ways to disintegrate Syria and Iraq and to increase its influence in the region. Similar criticism came from the Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim. In response, the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry Bahram Kasimi said that Turkey "should not test the patience of Iran" and accused Ankara of "dreaming about the restoration of the empire and supporting the terrorist groups." In addition, the Turkish Ambassador to Tehran Riza Hakan Tekin was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Ministry in connection with the statements of the Turkish leadership. Ankara has responded to the statement of the representative of Tehran through the representative of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Huseyin Muftuoglu, who accused Iran of creating regional tensions and instability.

Nevertheless, mutual verbal shots between Ankara and Tehran gave no reason (at least for now) to discuss the likelihood of an imminent collapse of the Russian-Turkish-Iranian "troika", which has undertaken a mission of guarantors of the ceasefire in Syria. The reason is the same - the coincidence of strategic interests of these countries in the preservation of the territorial integrity and unity of Syria. Following this mutually supportive positions, Russia, Turkey and Iran have agreed to establish a Joint Operations Group, which will meet regularly and report its findings to the International Group of Syria's support. This solution can be considered as yet another manifestation of the successful cooperation of the three countries in the fight against terrorist groups in the Syrian territory.

The Hope for Geneva

Whatever the balance of external forces having different approaches on the settlement of the Syrian conflict, it is clear that only a strong agreement between the Syrians themselves can be a key factor to establish a long-awaited peace in the country. Therefore, it is encouraging to see the resumption of the Syrian talks in Geneva that after almost a year-long break. As a result of the multilateral negotiations recently held in Astana under the auspices of Russia, Iran, and Turkey on the Syrian settlement with the representatives of the official Damascus and the Syrian opposition, the parties have managed to achieve progress in the establishment of trust between the conflicting sides. And now it is time to take new significant steps in Geneva, which was visited by the diplomats and experts from the countries of the Syria International Support groups, including the US, Russia, Turkey.

Obviously, the negotiations will not be easy. The positions of the conflicting parties are so contradictory that even the likelihood of reaching a compromise is extremely low. Especially given the heterogeneity of the Syrian opposition represented by numerous factions, each with their own vision of the future of the Syrian state.

The statement of Staffan de Mistura, the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General on Syria, is particularly noteworthy: "Do not expect miracles. First of all, I'm superstitious. Plus there are many contradictions. On the other hand, I am a realist. It is important that all parties understand that the war must stop. What are the main obstacles? The lack of trust. But the negotiations should contribute to solve this problem."

It is true that only the mutual trust can make all conflicting parties to agree on all the basic issues concerning the future of Syria. Such as the terms of the establishment of the Transitional Government, the development of a new Syrian Constitution, the holding of elections. In this case inadmissible any preconditions put forward towards a peaceful settlement, as reminded all interested parties, Staffan de Mistura. This reminder is appropriate because, according to reports coming out of Geneva, the so-called "Riyadh Group" Syrian opposition again insists on the need for the immediate resignation of President Assad. The sharp denunciation of the question immediately came from Moscow, described as "absurd" demands of the Syrian opposition, who arrived at a peace conference in Geneva, the capital of Saudi Arabia.

However, even such contradictions cannot underestimate the value of the ongoing negotiations. In essence, the parties to the conflict are willing to negotiate, and this gives at least some hope for the establishment of the peace in the bloody Syria.