FIGHT OF SHADOWS

Armenia is on the eve of the parliamentary elections scheduled for spring 2017. The results of public voting will determine the new government of the country.

Despite the significance of the event, the political map of Armenia remains very chaotic. The unknown leaders of the mushrooming electoral blocs and political organizations exert loud statements to ensure public support. It is worth noting that given the number of political actors, the political situation in Armenia is overly saturated.

According to the Armenian Ministry of Justice, there are 79 registered parties in the country, and 10 parties are pending registration for the parliamentary upcoming elections. And these parties exist in a country with less than 3 million official population. The real number of population is even less: 2 million people. The experts believe that these "microscopic" parties are created by existing Armenian authorities to ensure the "controlled chaos" in the political life of the country.

To prepare for the elections on April 2, political organizations and blocs have already gone through the registration process. In general, the party lists indicate more than 1,500 candidates claiming for the 90 seats in the Parliament made available under the proportional lists (another 41 MPs will be elected under the majority system).

Up until the last moment, some political blocs could not decide on the candidate lists but when the lists were announced finally, it became clear that the new parliament will not be that different from the previous ones.

Except for the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, four electoral blocs are particularly noteworthy. The first one is the bloc of Tsarukian rallying around the leader of the Prosperous Armenia, Gagik Tsarukian. The second bloc, Ohanian, Hovhannisian and Oskanian, is led by two former Ministers of Foreign Affairs (Raffi Hovhannisian and Vardan Oskanian) and the former Minister of Defense Seyran Ohanian. The pro-Western forces, Civil Contract, Bright Armenia and Republic united under the Elk (Exit) bloc. Finally, the block uniting the Armenian National Congress of the former president Levon Ter-Petrosian and the People's Party of Armenia led by Stepan Demirchian, son of the then leader of the Soviet Armenia, speaker of the National Assembly Karen Demirchian, who was killed in a suicide attack in November 1999. The ruling Republican Party, as well as the influential Dashnaktsutyun and the Armenian Renaissance (formerly "Country of Law") will participate in elections independently.

The list of the governing party demonstrates that Defense Minister Vigen Sargsian has strengthened his position.

Top ten of the list is mostly occupied by individuals close to President Sargsian, who owe him their political career. In fact, it is a sign of leaving the "old guard" of the ex-president Robert Kocharian and the arrival of people who are under the total control of Sargsian.

The bloc of mobs

One of the most interesting events for analysts was the return of Armenia’s richest man, Gagik Tsarukian, to politics. At the convention of Prosperous Armenia on February 10, Tsarukian was re-elected the party chairman and tried to explain the reasons for his departure from politics two years ago. He added: "If Gagik Tsarukian is taking certain steps, he does so not for the sake of positions or personal benefits but by the will of God."

Most of his speech was devoted to socio-economic problems of the country, where he criticized the pension and tax system, high interest rates on loans for business development, but did not have a solution for these problems. Frankly, these issues are the most interesting to the citizens of Armenia rather than the development of democracy and foreign policy.

Comparing the extremely difficult socio-economic situation in Armenia and Tsarukian’s financial resources, his political organization will be able to get many votes because sometimes Tsarukian tries to solve individual problems of citizens. However, it is highly unlikely that his party warrants the parliamentary majority.

Meanwhile, in spite of the above advantages, Tsarukian’s bloc also has weaknesses making its election chances pretty weak. Firstly, his party lists include people with criminal past and present. Tsarukian’s bloc includes not only his ‘old fellows’ but also highly criminal elements, who the ruling Republican Party (RPA) got rid of. Political slogan of these people resemble the traditions of the 90s: "We are rich. When we come to power, we will make our people rich too." Another dangerous moment for Prosperous Armenia began with its attempts to attract odious terrorist organizations such as Ramkavar Azatakan and the Social Democratic Party Hnchakian to form a coalition. Both parties are marginal in Armenia but have extensive connections and a strong position in the Armenian Diaspora.

Hnchakian is the oldest Armenian party established in 1887 in Geneva. Along with Dashnaksutyun, it had played a significant role in the Armenian revolts in the Ottoman Empire and the massacre of the Muslim population.

It is still unclear what was Tsarukian’s motivation, when he tried to pull the above organizations into the alliance: to support his political project with at least some ideological background, or to get support from the Armenian diaspora. Whatever it was, Tsarukian's alliance was unsuccessful. It was formed only by the Unity Movement and the Alliance Party, whose leaders are old friends of Tsarukian and do not have considerable weight and influence in Armenia’s political life.

On the one hand, it is definitely Tsarukian's failure, as he could not celebrate his "triumphal return" to politics. On the other hand, bearing such a disproportionate amount of responsibility for caretaking these marginal parties, which would soon or later become political burden, was a less profitable option for Tsarukian both financially and socially.

This assumption proves true if one takes a look at the composition and processes around another political bloc, Ohanian, Raffi, Oskanian, which has the most unstable situation.

Swan, Pike, and Cancer

The election bloc led by Seyran Ohanian, Raffi Hovhannisian and Vardan Oskanian is a very well candidate for a tragicomedy, for the pathological inadequacy of its leaders is not a subject of political analysis.

What does unite and separate these three people? Their relationship and common interests are entangled like a Gordian knot. Let us try to understand them. As already noted, Seyran Ohanian, Raffi Hovhannisian and Vardan Oskanian are former ministers. All three of them were born outside of Armenia (R. Hovannisian in the US, Oskanian in Syria, and Ohanian in Azerbaijan). At different times, Hovhannisian and Oskanian headed the Foreign Ministry, and Ohanian was responsible for the national defense. At the same time, Oskanian and Ohanian held office simultaneously. Many Armenians accuse Ohanian (as the Chairman of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces) in the shooting of protesters in the center of Yerevan in March 2008. The then Foreign Minister Oskanian was desperately trying to justify the criminal acts of war to the West. Both Oskanian and Ohanian are discreetly supported by the former president of Armenia Robert Kocharian. Both have been infamously known as Kocharian’s political agents. Incidentally, Kocharian is still undetermined about his return to big politics but nevertheless continues promoting own interests through the above individuals. They also keep close ties with Tsarukian, yet another Kocharian project of the past. But the most interesting thing is the presence of Raffi Hovannisian in this bloc. The Armenian media calls him "a mentally ill, unstable and extremely frivolous person." Often, Hovannisian demonstratively makes visits to the United States most likely expecting their support in his campaign. However, the Armenian diaspora has renounced Hovannisian long ago. Everybody knows about this fact but perhaps Hovannisian.

This political bloc could lead the long row of Armenian parties by the number of the most eccentric politicians, if Paruyr Hayrikian, leader of the marginal National Self-determination Association, better known for his paranoid whims to see Kremlin’s hand always and everywhere, joined it. But Mr. Ayrukian was "successfully" offended by internal conflict within the block and hurried to leave it, most likely for the good of the remaining.

It is also noteworthy to mention another member of this bloc, Samvel Babayan, who was very active in the preparation of party lists. Similar to Seyran Ohanian, Babayan is a war criminal guilty of murdering the innocent people of Nagorno-Karabakh. Even in Armenia, Babayan is considered as an extremely offensive and unpopular person because of his bloody past in Karabakh. Having resided in Russia for years, Babayan has suddenly appeared in Karabakh after the April 2016 skirmish but could not get on there. His membership in the bloc has been widely discussed in the Armenian media and the experts have managed to identify the true creator of the bloc, namely Robert Kocharian. After all, in Armenia it is no secret that Kocharian supports Babayan.

Whatever it was, the experts believe that the most motley and ambiguous bloc is unlikely to overcome the 7% barrier and get into the Armenian National Assembly.

The Exit’s Entry

The niche of opposition in the upcoming parliamentary elections will be represented by the pro-Western bloc Elk (Exit), a triumvirate of parties Civil Contract, Republic and Bright Armenia. According to Nikol Pashinian, member of the board of Civil Contract, Elk is an opportunity to pull Armenia out of a difficult situation, a series of setbacks. However, in reality Elk’s appeal is nothing more than a call to leave Russia’s clasp imposed by such integration projects as EAEC and CSTO. Besides Pashinian, other outstanding representatives of this block include the leader of the Republic Party Aram Sargsian, brother of the ex-Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian killed in 1999, and Sasun Mikaelian, another war criminal and activist of the Civil Contract.

The analysts believe that Elk has a chance to get into the parliament, albeit in small numbers. Firstly, the authorities are in need of a seemingly pro-Western radical opposition, as this will split the ranks of the opposition and lure votes. They may be allowed to criticize the authorities, sometimes very hard but nothing else. Secondly, the rumors say that Elk has an influential sponsor and patron - tycoon and president of the Sil Group", former MP Khachatur “Grzo” Sukiasian. Since money often plays an influential role in political struggle, then this kind of a "guardian" can only help Elk to get into parliament.

And finally, the classic opposition represented by the tandem ANC-NPA, a collaborative effort of the chairman of the Armenian National Congress (ANC) Levon Ter-Petrosian and the leader of the People's Party of Armenia Stepan Demirchian, who look like as perhaps the most pragmatic and appropriate representatives of the political race. However, there were incidents as well. Trying to negotiate with Gagik Tsarukian for quite a long time, Demirchian has joined ANC only at the very last minute. It is still not clear if the bloc enters the Armenian National Assembly. According to the Armenian media, Serzh Sargsian is not against it, as it is advantageous to keep ANC under the control.

All of the above shows that Armenia has a distorted concept of political pluralism. The statements of some politicians, their actions, and conspiracies coupled with the impending war of compromising materials, as well as the use of administrative resources demonstrate that all politicians are only interested in high-ranked positions in the electoral lists of parties likely to get into the parliament. The seeming political struggle is just a fight of shadows. Many experts believe that the Republican Party headed by Serzh Sargsian will not give up the power under any circumstances. Thus, the lofty promises of the Armenian authorities about the forthcoming ‘revitalisation’ will remain a forgery.