THE KOREAN CHALLENGES

Ongoing events in North Korea have sharply aggravated the overall situation in the Asia-Pacific region. Apart from confrontation between Pyongyang and its geopolitical enemies, including primarily the US, the situation also depends on a number of other factors where China's growing power is of the utmost significance.

Kim Jong-un's missiles and Trump's «new approach»

The last decade of March was remarkable for two pieces of news that confirmed North Korea's reluctance to follow the UN Security Council's bans on the development of its nuclear and missile programs. Pyongyang announced the testing of a powerful missile engine. For South Korea and its key supporter in the region, the United States, this announcement was an evidence of the DPRK's readiness to carry out new nuclear tests. And the next day, the North Korean regime led by Kim Jong-un shocked its enemies with yet another launch of a ballistic missile. North Korea had already launched several ballistic missiles previously, which reached the exclusive economic zone of Japan on March 6. Although the South Korean media claim that the last launch was unsuccessful, Kim Jong-un called this demarche as «a new birth of the North Korean missile industry». Pyongyang, however, insists that all launches of ballistic missiles were successful.

The UN Security Council condemned the actions of the DPRK, and urged the leadership of the country to refrain from further steps contrary to relevant resolutions. By the way, since 2006, the UN Security Council has issued as many as six resolutions, and the last two issued last year have significantly tightened the current sanctions against the ruling regime in Pyongyang, including restrictions on trade, fossil exports, purchase of weapons and the banking sector.

However, none of the above measures forced the North Koreans to abandon the nuclear and missile development. This should be regarded as an explicit challenge addressed to the United States, Japan and South Korea, as North Korea motivates its need to implement strategic military programs due to threats coming from these countries. For Pyongyang, these actions are taken to «counter the policy of nuclear threats and blackmailing by the United States.» It is quite obvious that the stance and role of North Korea in regional and global situation is defined by its relations with the United States as the leading power of the West and the world. It is therefore interesting to review the «North Korean policy» of the new American administration led by Donald Trump and assess the changes it will bring to the practice of pressing on Pyongyang used during Obama's presidency, if any.

Shortly after the elections, Donald Trump described the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, as «very bad guy», although he had previously expressed his desire to negotiate with him and solve North Korea's nuclear problem “through discussions”. In addition, Washington made a few statements about the possibility of preventive strikes against North Korea and the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea and Japan, which hints about a tough approach of the new American administration to solving problems with Pyongyang. This hard line was made clear during the first Asian tour of the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to Japan, South Korea and China on March 15-19.

In Seoul, at a joint briefing with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, Tillerson acknowledged the development of a «package of measures» in relation to Pyongyang as a result of «the failure of diplomatic efforts and the need for a new approach,» and confirmed that he was visiting the region «to exchange views on a new approach”. Tillerson made similar statements in Tokyo at a joint press conference with the Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida. The head of the US State Department stated that “the political and diplomatic efforts of the past 20 years to bring North Korea to the point of denuclearization have failed” and “a different approach is required in the face of ever-escalating threat” from North Korea.

Indeed, the diplomatic efforts of both Washington and the UN Security Council to contain Pyongyang's nuclear program have failed. A group of six international mediators (the USA, Russia, China, Great Britain, France, and Germany) involved in the settlement of the North Korean problem was practically disbanded. So, what exactly can the new US approach offer and how likely are Washington’s threats of using force against North Korea?

It is obvious that for the Americans, one of the components of this “new approach” is going to be the final and complete isolation of North Korea from the world financial system. Another American preventive mechanism is the actual replacement of multilateral global format of pressing on Pyongyang with a trilateral one made of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. It's no surprise that Mr. Tillerson agreed with his Japanese colleague Kishida to increase pressure on North Korea by adding that strengthening the Japanese-American cooperation plays a big role in containing Pyongyang.

As for South Korea, the US sees the country as the main outpost of military-political pressure on North Korea. In early March, the US started the deployment of anti-missile defense system, THAAD, in South Korea. This was followed by the joint US-South Korean military exercises in the south of the Korean peninsula.

However, the most noteworthy element of Washington’s “new approach” is an attempt to make China and Russia engage more actively in the North Korean issue. Moscow and Beijing firmly oppose any possible preventive strikes against North Korea's nuclear facilities, and are also critical of the deployment of the US missile defense system in the south of the Korean peninsula. In particular, a joint statement by foreign ministries of Russia and China contains a categorical objection to the advancement of the THAAD anti-missile system by the US and South Korea. Russia and China make it clear that they view Washington's actions as a threat to their interests in the Asia-Pacific region.