29 March 2024

Friday, 06:35

IT’S HARD TO BE A BRITON

Early elections in Britain is more like a puzzle

Author:

01.05.2017

In May 2017, British lawmakers are going to convene for the last time in the meeting room of the House of Commons to wish each other a soonest reunion after early and unpredictable elections planned on Thursday, June 8, as required by the tradition established back in 1935.

The initiative of the leader of the Conservatives, Prime Minister Theresa May, was eagerly supported by the parliament: only 13 of 650 parliamentarians voted against. Thus, for the first time since 2011, Britain has applied the law that requires the prime minister to get approval of the two thirds of the parliament.

Previously, when the leader of the ruling party, namely the prime minister, found a suitable moment for strengthening his power, he would immediately dissolve the parliament and set the date for early elections. In fact, both the Conservatives and Labourites have enjoyed this right quite often since 1945, when the average period between the elections was a little over three and half years instead of the prescribed five years.

In 2011, David Cameron was forced to initiate a law limiting the powers of the prime minister in order to ensure a stable work of the government formed in a coalition with the liberal democrats.

 

May needs a popular mandate

It is interesting that Theresa May, who succeeded Cameron in all posts right after the last referendum, has been insisting on her firm opposition to early elections. She voiced the same thesis just a week before the announcement of the voting. Apparently, Mrs. May has been lulling her opponents into a false sense of reality, yet constantly keeping in mind a probable development of events. Although a legitimate political leader of the country, she has never felt comfortable without a mandate of popular confidence.

Even with a parliamentary approval of the negotiations with the EU in the worst-case Brexit scenario, she has been constantly confronting with the threats from the opposition parties trying to impede the adoption of unpopular decisions on the withdrawal from the European Union. Thus, she has chosen a right moment to strengthen her government.

It is obvious that the upcoming Brexit talks will be very difficult. They will require the Cabinet to make unpopular decisions and concessions, which will negatively affect the ratings of the government and the ruling party. According to numerous opinion polls, the Conservatives are at the peak of popularity being trusted by 42-44% of Britons versus 22-24% of the citizens supporting the Labourites. Mrs. May has even better ratings – 50% of respondents consider her as a worthy prime minister, and only 14% think the same about the Labourite leader Jeremy Corbyn.

However, all these surveys can distort reality. And it is not about the parallels with the recent elections in the US. The UK electoral system is designed so that it does not depend on the nationwide percentage of support for a particular party, but rather on a fairly simple majority of votes for a particular candidate in a particular constituency. For example, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) had 12.64% of the votes in 2015 but its representative won only in one electoral district. Thus, UKIP secured only one seat in the parliament.

That is why the Conservatives are actively discussing the conclusions made by the famous American expert Nathan Silver, who correctly predicted the results of the US presidential elections in each of the states last year. According to Silver, the results of sociological surveys in the UK are not credible and the upcoming elections are very risky for the Tories: as soon as they lose six seats in the parliament, they will have no chance to form a single-party government.

 

Corbyn the Traitor?

For many voters, Corbyn is not an impressive leader at all. Besides, the Labourites are too torn apart by internal conflicts. Having been the leader of his party after its defeat in the 2015 elections, Corbyn not only failed to strengthen it and attract new supporters but also provoked a split in the party. As a result, the ratings went down sharply.

In June, the voters, who have traditionally supported the Labourites but voted for the Brexit, may consider Theresa May more appropriate a person to cope with the difficult negotiations with the EU. At the same time, other "traditionally Labourite" districts opposing Brexit consider Corbyn to be a traitor for supporting the hard option of leaving the EU. They can cast their votes to the Party of Liberal Democrats (PLD), which is the most pro-European party in Britain.

Yet the Labourites hope to regain the favour of the electorate. "I welcome the Prime Minister's decision to give the British people the chance to vote for a government that will put the interests of the majority first. Labour will be offering the country an effective alternative to a government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and damaging cuts to our schools and National Health System," said Jeremy Corbyn explaining why his party supported early elections.

The success of the Labour Party will largely depend on the lessons learnt since the defeat of 2015. Two years ago, they were focused on further strengthening the positions in electoral districts, where they already had a solid advantage. Yet they did not actively confront where the competitors dominated. The same tactic will ensure that most of the existing mandates are retained. But at the same time, it means a deliberate refusal to fight for the establishment of a single-party government.

 

A chance for the Liberal Democrats

The forthcoming elections will be definitely influenced by the Brexit. Therefore, the Liberal Democratic Party has a chance of rehabilitation after a crushing defeat in 2015.

Two years ago, LDP lost 49 seats in the parliament, retaining only 8. This was the worst result since 1970. Most of the supporters turned their backs on the liberal democrats primarily because they were part of the Conservative coalition government unable to influence its course.

Now in many electoral districts, where they had serious support until 2015, especially in the south of the country where the population is pro-European, the Liberal Democrats hope to regain their mandates.

The main electorate of the party is youth, middle class and ethnic minorities, who voted last year to maintain the EU membership.

"This is a great opportunity to change the direction of this country: if you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance," said LDP leader Tim Farron commenting on his party’s platform before the elections.

 

No chance for the Union

Immediately after the announcement of the early elections, Theresa May accused the main opposition parties along with the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has 56 seats in the dissolved parliament, and the Green Party of England and Wales with 1 seat in the parliament of trying to create a bloc against the Conservatives.

"There will be a very clear choice in this election," the prime minister said. "It's a choice between strong and stable leadership with conservatives or a weak and unstable coalition of chaos led by Jeremy Corbyn."

Indeed, from the side of the Head of the SNP, the first Minister of Scotland, Nikola Sturgeon and the leaders of the Greens, such proposals were made. However, Corbyn and Farron did not support this idea.

"People think Corbyn is a nice man but incompetent," said one aide to Mr. Farron. "We have to show we are a more competent opposition than Labour."

Not only the Labour leader denied rumors of any coalitions but he flatly refused to participate in the election debates between the opposition leaders, which the television companies were ready to organize. Theresa May stated in advance that she would not participate in any debate. In response, Corbyn defined his position as follows: “We go to the elections not as an obviously oppositional party but aspiring for leadership in the parliament. Thus, the format proposed by the television companies is not acceptable.”

 

A view from Brussels

President of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani does not agree with Theresa May, who stated that after triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start the withdrawal from the EU, "there is no way back". He noted: "if Great Britain wants to stop Brexit after the elections, the procedure will be very simple." However, the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt called the election decision "another scam of Tory" and ironically remarked: "when the fog of surrealism that has engulfed UK ministers will clear and we can have a serious discussion about our future relationship, which I hope will be a close one".



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