THE ARENA OF THE TOTAL WAR

Following the notorious chemical attack in Khan-Shaykhun and an American missile strike at the Shairat air base in the province of Homs, the situation in Syria has sharply aggravated and continues to develop in the most unfavorable way with almost an impossible chance of achieving peace. The country literally brews in a overheated boiler of war thanks to the efforts of the leading centres of strength of regional and global politics.

The American plan and the Turkish blow

The central front of the Syrian war remains the war of international coalitions led by the US and Russia against the so-called Islamic State (IS). The latter moved its Syrian capital from Raqqa to Deir al-Zor located 140 km southeast. The governmental forces of Syria, international forces and the detachments of the Syrian opposition supported by them struggle hard in these two cities, an epicenter of military operations nowadays. According to strategic estimates, the battles for Raqqa and Deir al-Zor will be crucial to final extrusion of the IS from the Syrian territory.

It is not surprising that the US President Donald Trump expanded the powers of the Pentagon both in Syria and Iraq, which is another arena of confrontation with the IS. Now, the US Secretary of Defense James Mattis is tasked to deploy “a greater number” of American troops in these countries.

Incidentally, at the end of February, Mr. Mattis presented to President Trump a military plan for the “defeat of the caliphate”, according to which the effectiveness of the anti-IS operations cannot be improved without establishing US military bases around a 50-60 km perimeter of major cities held by “jihadists” in Syria and Iraq. Mattis admitted that it would be impossible to win only by means of air strikes.

Apparently, the Pentagon is going to use the existing American bases of Rmeilan, Kobani and Tabka near the areas mainly populated by the Kurds as a foothold for strengthening American positions in the arena of military operations. This reconfirms that the Kurds are the main instrument of American policy in the Syrian war. In particular, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) carrying out the military operation The Wrath of Euphrates with the support of the American aviation against the IS since November 2016.

One of the consequences of the Kurdish-oriented policy of the US should be the creation of the Kurdish autonomy in the north of Syria, similar to the one that the Americans have created in Iraq. Back in March 2016, Washington encouraged the Syrian Kurds to create a federal region in the Northern Syria. President Trump, following the policy of the previous US administration, actually makes it clear that he will not allow the return of the Kurdish-populated areas to the east of the Euphrates under the jurisdiction of Damascus.

Of course, the Syrian leadership protests against any plans leading to the split of the country. The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in his interview with RIA Novosti bluntly stated that self-government of Kurds in the north of Syria is understandable under current conditions but in peacetime, there is no reason for this. He believes that the issue of autonomous ruling of Syrian regions can be resolved only according to the new constitution of the country. “Syria is a melting pot of different cultures, ethnic groups, religions, sects and so on. Therefore, no part of this social fabric can determine the future of Syria, a consensus is needed,” said Assad.

Obviously, the United States is not happy with Damascus’s desire to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria, as well as with Turkey's reluctance to admit the creation of yet another Kurdish autonomous entity. Hence, Washington's negative response to the latest attacks of the Turkish air force on the positions of Kurdish terrorist organizations, primarily the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), in northern Syria and Iraq. The US State Department spokesman Mark Toner said: “We are … deeply concerned that Turkey conducted airstrikes … in northern Syria as well as northern Iraq without proper coordination either with the United States or the broader global coalition to defeat ISIS”.

It is worth noting that almost a month ago the SDF command suggested the US to use the Tabka base and other military targets subordinate to the Americans in Syria as a substitute for the strategically significant Incirlik air base in Turkey. Immediately after the Turkish air strikes, the leaders of the Syrian Kurds appealed to the US-led international coalition to exert pressure on Ankara. In addition, “Detachments of the Syrian Kurdish militia” – yet another paramilitary structure of the Syrian Kurds - advocated the creation of a no-fly zone in the north of the country.

Thus, the forces of the Syrian Kurds and the US behind them in the arena of war with the IS also seek the elimination of the Syrian statehood and weakening of Turkey's regional positions. With the idea of ​​creating, in fact, directed against the interests of Damascus and Ankara at the same time as a no-fly zone in northern Syria, plans for the formation of buffer zones are also consonant with the implementation of which the US connected two other closest allies - Israel and Jordan.

Southern front in the horizon?

In February, President Trump discussed the idea of ​​creating a buffer zone in southern Syria at his meeting with Jordan's King Abdullah II. This task has become relevant for the pro-American coalition as a result of its very difficult advance to the city of Raqqa, which is still under the control of the IS. The Jordanian media note that a joint grouping of US, British and Jordanian military forces is waiting for an order to enter southern Syria predominantly controlled by jihadists. Thus, we can witness an activation of yet another front of the war with the IS, namely the offensive from Jordan to the south of Syria, to the eastern part of the Syrian desert and the city of Dar'a.

The US sources report that the US-British forces deployed in Jordan earlier have already “been conducting a long operation on the Syrian-Jordanian border.” There is no doubt that the attack on the IS through the southern and northern fronts will serve the realisation of a long-cherished idea of ​​the West to overthrow the government of Assad. This approach seems to have finally consolidated in the policy of President Trump. During his first days as president, the overthrowing of Assad was not his priority. However, after a chemical attack in the province of Idlib by Syrian government troops (according to the West), he spoke for immediate removal of the Syrian president from power.

Speaking about the possible invasion of the American-British-Jordanian forces to the south of Syria, one should also take into account Russia's position, which is not happy with such a prospect of events. The opening of the “southern front” is fraught with the strengthening of the pro-American coalition, which is close to changing the alignment of forces in its favour as a result of an American strike against the Syrian airbase. Counteracting the US's “Syrian policy”, which became noticeably more active during the Trump administration, Russia entered into negotiations with Damascus regarding the sale of its missile defense system. Moscow believes that this move can protect Syria from new attacks by US cruise missiles.

Meanwhile, Russian experts are also discussing the possibility of Russia's ground military assistance to Syria. In his interview with RIA Novosti, Syrian President Assad denied the need for Russian ground forces, praising the support of the Syrian army by the Russian Space Forces. However, Russian strategists suggest that Damascus will fail the war if Moscow does not start ground operations in Syria. Such a possibility is even more tiring. Especially given the above-mentioned prospect of opening the “southern front” by the Americans and their allies.

Iranian “bone” for Tel Aviv and Amman

Given a possible opening of the “southern front”, it is impossible to ignore the contributing factor of Iran. The Guard Corps of the Islamic Revolution (IRGC) is one of the key external participants in the total Syrian massacre. Lately, there has been a lot of talk about the intention of IRGC to have a stationary or a naval base in Syria. Iran could therefore become the third player with strategic support in Syria after Russia, which de jure has military bases of Khmeimim and Tartus, and the United States, which de facto established its bases in the so-called Syrian Kurdistan. Washington and its allies are not happy with the perspective of Iranian bases in Syria, especially near Syria's immediate neighbors, Israel and Jordan. Moreover, this basing will be accompanied by the strengthening of the military presence in Syria of Tehran's closest partner and the ardent enemy of Tel Aviv and Amman, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah.

Israel and Jordan explain the need to create a buffer zone in southern Syria in an attempt to prevent the military presence of Iran and Hezbollah near their borders. This was stated directly by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel's intelligence minister, Israel Katz, during his visit to Washington made it clear that Tel Aviv intended to reach an agreement with the US not to allow Iran to have “permanent military forces in Syria, in the air, on land, at sea.” Israel demands that this issue be identified in any possible international agreement on the settlement of the conflict in Syria. As for Jordan, in his interview with The Washington Post, King Abdullah II confirmed Amman's categorical reluctance to put up with the IRGC's presence at the Jordanian border.

However, while Jordan only expects the US consent to start a military operation in southern Syria, Israel seems to have received green light already. Israel has immediately proceeded to methodical strikes on the Syrian territory, motivating it with an intention to prevent the strengthening of military positions of Iran and Hezbollah.

Thus, at the end of February, the Israeli Air Force fired rockets at the Hezbollah camp on the Kalyamun mountain range, near the town of al-Katif, north of Damascus. In March, they again bombarded Kalyamun, destroying the positions of Hezbollah and at the same time batteries of the Syrian air defense. In the last decade of April, the Israeli air force attacked Syrian troops in the province of al-Quneitra, near the Golan Heights, making it clear that Tel Aviv would not allow Iran and the group to concentrate their forces on the Golan Heights, off Israel's northern border. In addition, the Hezbollah’s weaponry depot near the international airport in Damascus was attacked. Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman confirmed that Israel was concerned about Iran's activity in Syria, especially the use of Syrian territory as a trans-shipment base for the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Thus, Syria has turned into a field of continuous fighting, led not only by various Syrian forces but also by foreign states willing to satisfy their military and political ambitions. What will be the ultimate outcome of this military feast for the Syrian people, who have already lost hundreds of thousands of lives during this merciless war? It seems that nobody cares about the answer to this question, except for the Syrians. Unfortunately for Syria itself, the disunity of political forces is so high that they do not manage to unite their efforts, express a single will for the sake of saving their blood-torn homeland.