A PYRRHIC VICTORY

No doubt, the early parliamentary elections in Great Britain on June 8 will live in history as a vivid example of an incompetent self-reliance and ignorance of the voter attitudes. Prime Minister Theresa May, who was intending to consolidate her party's position, put it into a difficult situation. The Conservatives remained the largest party in the lower house of the Parliament, but lost an absolute majority of seats with 317 seats only, while they needed at least 325 seats to secure a relative majority. Now, May will have to negotiate with the opposition virtually any decision in advance.

May immediately ruled out the possibility of her resignation and agreed to support the conservative centre-right Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of the Northern Ireland, which has 10 seats in the new parliament. In 2015, DUP announced itself as a force that would determine the formation of coalitions. But in this case, it's not even a coalition - DUP will join the Tories in voting on the most vital issues such as the budget approval. It seems the bargain was real serious. The DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has announced from the very beginning that she expected additional powers for the Northern Irish authorities, and that the “hard” Brexit was not in anyone's interests. May has made that trouble herself.

Political scientists used to say that May’s readiness for early elections showed Prime Minister’s confidence in her own potential and the power of the Tories as a whole. In fact, May’s arguments sounded pretty good. First, the Brexit has indeed divided the parliament, just as the whole country. A year ago, the supporters of the withdrawal from the EU scored slightly more than half of the votes (51.9%) in the referendum. Therefore, according to May's plan, the elections would have to ensure the unity of the British and strengthen her cabinet in order to “secure the very best deal possible from the negotiations.” It was planned that if the Tories fail to increase the number of seats in the parliament, they could at least enjoy the tenure of power for another two years, namely until 2020. This event has now been shifted to 2022 though. May was planning to strengthen her own positions by holding legitimate public elections, as she was repeatedly reproached for having received her post as a result results of internal power struggle and David Cameron’s resignation after the Brexit. She also wished to “get a mandate”, namely an unconditional support of the British. She also wished to get rid of the need to follow the pre-election promises of the Conservatives of the Cameron Era.

All political powers, except the Scottish nationalists, supported the early elections. Liberal Democrats, who had only eight seats in the past, eventually wished to improve their situation, although they did not do it well. The main rivals of the Conservatives, the Labourites, would not have gotten worse, but they could win a lot. And they indeed did – 30 seats in the parliament, which is their best result since 2001. Only the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) Nicola Sturgeon called the decision on early elections a “huge political mistake”. She said that May was going to use her victory to withdraw from the EU on harsh terms without taking into account the wishes of the Scots, who, for the most part, do not want to leave. But SNP unexpectedly lost 21 seats in the new parliament.

According to many British political scientists, it was in fact… the Islamic State (IS), which helped to thwart the Conservatives’ plans. IS claimed responsibility for a series of terrorist attacks in Great Britain: on March 22 on the Westminster Bridge, on May 22 in Manchester and on June 3 on the London Bridge, which left dozens of people killed and more than a hundred wounded. Indeed, these terrorist attacks substantially changed the pre-election tone of all parties and shifted the emphasis from the Brexit to security. This can be seen clearly in the statements of May, who, after the Manchester attack, was reserved and did not talk about new measures to counter extremism. After the events of June 3, however, she said there was a need to tackle “safe spaces in the real world”, be it the Internet or some Muslim communities, where the sympathizers of terrorism can “breed”, adding “enough is enough”. May also did not rule out a possibility of tougher punishment for terrorism and extending the powers of the police and special services as part of the national antiterrorist strategy. However, the Prime Minister received tons of criticism from human rights institutions such as the Open Rights Group, and from those who remember May’s tenure as the Home Secretary, when she had seriously cut off the budget of the Home Office, which has ultimately affected the security system as a whole. Of course, these statements failed to add extra points to Prime Minister’s campaign on the eve of the election.

However, it was not only this swift shift from the EU leave to security that played a role. Shortly before the election, the Conservatives announced their plans to increase the cost of social services and caretaking for the elderly citizens, namely adding of the ‘Dementia Tax’ so called by the media. The bill was eventually withdrawn but it was another blot on May’s reputation. It was too obvious that the Conservatives tried to play on internal disputes of the Labour Party. Many of them do not like their current leader Jeremy Corbin, who is recognised as a radical and revolutionary calling for the abandonment of the nuclear program and active support of the poor. But when it became clear that Corbin was gaining popularity, the Conservative press, including The Times and The Daily Mail, launched an unpleasant campaign against Corbin, even depicting him in waste bin. As it turned out, many young British think differently than the influential British media. Most of the educated young people voted for the left, with a record turnout at polling stations in the last 20 years. At the same time, not only the Labour Party improved their positions, but also did Plaid Cymru and Sinn Féin. But the extreme right UKIP actually lost the popular support. The political reality in the Foggy Albion swung sharply to the right, and for the first time since the 1970s, the two mainstream parties, the Conservatives and Labourites, regained dominance in British politics.

Well, but what about the Brexit, which was in fact the detonator of these events? The negotiations will begin as planned, on June 19. But it seems the voters actually refuse to mandate May for negotiations with the EU from tough positions, the idea that she has so often declared. London now has to be more compliant during the talks. On the other hand, after losing some of its seats in the parliament, the Scottish SNP is now trying to recover from the shock and even withdrew its plans for a new independence referendum. The same situation is with the UKIP, the most Eurofobic party without any seats. So, the configuration of powers has become even more challenging. This outcome of events, obviously, increases tensions in Brussels, which is confused now as to who is the actual party of negotiations from the British side. After all, there are many issues to discuss: immigration, trade, unhindered access to the EU goods and services market.

No doubt, the 2017 election will remain in the history of the British political system for a long time. First, it is quite possible that this is not the final “early” election of the current cycle. Everything will depend on May's tenacity and survival potential, on whether she will make such mistakes again. She is clearly not the new Margaret Thatcher but rather a good party functionary, and effective official yet too distant from the real voters. According to BBC, May held a “soft reshuffle” in her cabinet and only provoked a skeptical attitude toward herself. She is already called a political ‘dead woman walking’ and a ‘lame duck’. Some diplomats believe that she will not last long on the Downing Street. But the really bad news both for May and the whole country is the following: given the last year's outcome on Brexit, as well as the results of the Scottish referendum and the recent elections, the British nation is divided in half on many issues and neither cabinet is able to find a trade-off under the existing terms easily.