IS TRUMP AGAINST CLIMATE?

Donald Trump explained his decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Accord with concerns about the future of his country and people. The president believes that if the country remained part of the agreement, the U.S. economy would lose about 2.7 million jobs by 2025, followed by a reduction in wages, closure of plants and significant economic downturn. "I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris," the president said.

It is not the first time Trump calls the scientific conclusions about climate change "false". Once he even suggested that the Chinese, who wanted to slow down the growth of American industry, invented the concept of global warming.

During his election campaign, Trump promised to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord. He was hesitating for the first four months after the elections, which is explained by a tough struggle among his closest advisers. Supporters of the withdrawal were the chief strategist of the White House Stephen Bannon, and the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency Scott Pruitt. Their main opponents were the Director of the National Economic Council Gary Cohn, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and daughter of the President Ivanka Trump.

And yet Trump remained true to his promises. Neither the demonstrations of protest across the country nor the business circles, his own daughter and even the Pope Francis, who presented him his latest encyclical about the need to protect nature, could persuade President Trump.

The struggle with the legacy of the Obama administration began immediately after the inauguration. The first thing that was canceled was the decree of the former U.S. president, which defined the climate change as a threat to the U.S. security. The new administration has canceled over a dozen measures aimed at reducing harmful emissions into the atmosphere, lifted a moratorium on the development of new coal deposits, significantly cut the funding of the Environmental Protection Agency (31%) and the state support to climate research.

The departments and agencies have been instructed to identify the reasons hindering the development of extracting industry in the U.S. and to take measures to eliminate them.

" My administration is putting an end to the war on coal," said President Trump.

What is the Paris Climate Accord?

In November 2016, the agreement dealing with climate changes and supported by 195 countries came into force.

Scientific studies show that if the world's carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise, this will lead to increased average temperatures, dramatically higher seas (up to 80 cm), floods, drought, epidemics, food crisis, etc.

The main objective of the agreement is an attempt to prevent the increase of the average temperature within 1.5-2 degrees Celsius in relation to pre-industrial era (second half of the 19^th century) until the end of the century. Each country has independently developed a plan of actions to reduce harmful atmospheric emissions. For the U.S. the pledge involves 26 to 28 percent reductions by 2025 compared with 2005.

But there were some tricks as well. Since the agreement did not set stringent conditions, each signatory country took a baseline year when it had the largest volume of industrial emissions. Thus, for the U.S. this was 2005, for Russia - 1990, for Japan – 2013, etc. China was smart enough to commit to improving its emissions per unit of GDP, which makes an overall reduction by as much as 60%!

Every five years, the norms defined in the document will be tightened. Theoretically, by 2050-2100, the total volume of CO₂ emissions should reach the levels when trees, soil and the ocean can reprocess it naturally.

The industrialized countries also decided to allocate $100 billion to developing countries by 2020 to solve their environmental problems. The Obama administration has pledged $3 billion for these purposes, of which $1 billion was immediately transferred to the Green Climate Fund. The second largest contribution was made by Japan - $1.5 billion. Germany allocated about $1 billion.

Despite the largest contribution of the U.S., it is only the eleventh in terms of the ratio per capita. The leading country is Sweden, which has pledged to provide $581 million. This is about $60 per person, which is six times the U.S. ratio.

As a member-state of the Paris Climate Accord, Azerbaijan has also assumed a number of obligations. By 2030, it is planned to increase the share of thermal, solar and wind energy to 30%. In fact, all thermal power plants in the country are gas-powered stations.

According to the Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Huseyngulu Bagirov, Azerbaijan is trying to reduce harmful atmospheric emissions by about 4-5 million tons annually as its contribution to joint efforts on retaining temperature increase within 2 degrees.

A four-year delay

Declaring the withdrawal from the Paris agreement, Trump promised to start negotiations on re-accession "on fairer terms".

However, not everything is as simple as it seems to the U.S. president. According to Christiana Figueres, the former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), "This is a multilateral agreement, and no one country can unilaterally change the conditions."

In addition, according to the rules of the Agreement, nations wishing to exit must first submit a document specifying their intent to withdraw. However, this is permitted only after three years have passed since the agreement entered into force. This means that the U.S. can submit its written notice Nov. 4, 2019, at the earliest. The official withdrawal will take effect exactly one year later at the earliest, in November 2020, which falls on the next presidential election in the United States.

So, neither may the U.S. withdraw from the Agreement during the first term of President Trump nor it can ignore the rules of the document.

Plans will slightly "get weakened"

The active development of shale gas fields and the rapid development of alternative energy sources are pushing the coal industry out of the market.

The main reason why the coalmines continue to be closed is that they are less competitive. In fact, this has much less to do with regulatory decisions. The alternative energy sector currently employs more people than the traditional coal or oil industries. More than 60% of all the new power facilities in the country are wind or solar powered plants.

Each city and state in the U.S. has its own development strategy and budget. They become increasingly less dependent on federal authorities. The popular demand for renewable energy sources is growing, and the local administrations cannot ignore this fact. The leading producer of alternative energy in the U.S. is California, which is trying to become the first U.S. state without industrial and transportation emissions of carbon dioxide.

According to the experts, Washington's decision will not have a big impact on the overall situation in the domestic coal industry. It will just slightly change the set performance indicators - from the promised level of 26-28 per cent down to minus 20 and 22 per cent.

The U.S. contributes more than 16% of the global volume of atmospheric emissions. The leader is China with 28%. However, the per capita CO₂ emissions in the U.S. remain significantly higher than in China, India or the European Union.

In addition, on a temporary basis, the United States has burned coal, oil and natural gas incomparably more than any other country in the world. That is why many in the country and abroad consider it a moral duty for U.S. to be part of the Paris Agreement. The withdrawal will not bring any benefits except for economic and reputational losses.

In economic terms, this is the probability of creating customs barriers for goods from the US, let alone that people around the world in protest can and refuse to acquire much that is produced in this country. Well, transnational companies still need to follow increasingly stringent emission laws that are adopted by other countries, regardless of the location of their headquarters.

The damage to the political image may be even more serious. Those wishing to take the leading positions of the United States in world politics will not have to search long. The European Union, China and India have already announced their global ambitions.

No way for ignorance

Almost 70% of Americans in each of the 50 states support the Paris Climate Accord. Only 13% of American nationals are against it. These are the results of a poll conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change.

Since November 2016, a wave of protest marches across the country against Trump's intentions to hamper the worldwide trend towards protecting the environment has not ceased.

Even the companies processing raw materials support the Agreement. ExxonMobil, Chevron, General Electric, Coca-Cola, Google, Intel, a chain of Hilton Hotels, Nike, Mars and many other business giants are outraged by Trump's actions. The coalition of 217 large investors that collectively oversee $15tn in assets have stated in their letter: "Being long-term investors, we believe that mitigation of climate change is essential for the safeguarding of our investments." Entrepreneurs consider Trump's allegations about the negative impact of environmental measures on employment false.

Interestingly, even the American coal companies argue that the Paris Agreement can be the best forum for protecting their global interests. In an open letter to Trump, Colin Marshall, CEO of Cloud Peak Energy, wrote: "As a coal producer, we do not want to ignore the two-thirds of Americans who believe climate change is happening and that carbon dioxide emissions play a role."

Immediately after the announcement of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, three states - New York, California and Washington – announced the establishment of the United States Climate Alliance, a coalition aiming to implement the country's commitments to reduce carbon emissions. The fact that the first two states make up the fourth largest economy in the world manifests the seriousness of their intentions.

The coordinator of the alliance is Michael Bloomberg, the former Mayor of New York, and now the Special Envoy of the UN Secretary General on Climate Change.

So far, the coalition has 13 states, 190 cities, more than 80 universities and 100 companies. Their number is growing every day. Among the coalition members is the city of Pittsburgh, which Trump feels concerned about. Pittsburgh’s mayor Bill Peduto responded to Trump: "As the Mayor of Pittsburgh, I can assure you that we will follow the guidelines of the Paris Agreement for our people, our economy, and future."