THE MANCHURIAN CANDIDATE

In July, Pyongyang successfully tested intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) pushing the crisis on the Korean peninsula to a new dangerous phase: North Korea is now capable of posing a direct threat to the U.S territories. Apparently, this completely changes the current balance of power and makes an American preventive response and the subsequent conflict inevitable. But is this really the case? Is it really impossible to revive the negotiations?

If one checks the news for the last month, the situation is evolving towards a very dangerous scenario. On August 8, North Korean authorities published a propaganda video showing how a missile strike on the American island of Guam, which is the home for the U.S. Andersen Air Base and Apra-Harbor Naval Base, could look like. A few days later, President Trump said that Washington was ready to use both force and diplomatic and economic measures to eliminate the nuclear threat coming from North Korea. Kim Jong-un promised to hold off on firing missiles at Guam because he wanted to "watch a little more the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees." However, the National Intelligence Service of South Korea believes that the North Korean authorities are preparing for a new sixth nuclear test (the last test was held in September 2016). In addition, on August 26, a surprise came from North Korean province of Kangwon-do. The international experts diverged in their views as to what the North Koreans had released: ballistic missiles or large-scale rockets. Vladimir Khrustalev, an expert on the North Korean nuclear missile program, noted on his Facebook page that there were some unusual moments - the direction of firing, "long intervals between launches compared to the last firing of short-range missiles," and "too many test launches in a single day." According to South Korean estimates, North Korea has tested new heavy multiple rocket launcher, which was improved by as much as 50 km. This is a very disturbing event, since it is believed that in case of the conflict, the artillery will be the first to strike not only the military targets and infrastructure objects, but also the residential areas of South Korea. Hence, the President of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, has urgently demanded to develop a plan for reforming military structures that "must meet the requirements of modern warfare." Seoul considers these measures extremely necessary although it has one of the most numerous and well-equipped (the defense budget of South Korea exceeds the military expenses of Pyongyang more than 33-35 times) armies in the world with unmatched superiority both in the sky and sea. At the same time, no one knows for sure the military potential of North Korea. On the night of August 29, North Korea released another ballistic missile that flew over the territory of Japan, falling 1180 kilometers from Cape Erimo of Hokkaido Island.

The DPRK regime appears to be inadequate and capable of everything. Almost 75% of Americans consider Pyongyang to be one of the most serious threats, 77% are confident that Kim Jong-un can hit the American territory with his nuclear missiles. And he does everything possible to confirm this image. It is obvious that North Koreans have no reason to attack first. Despite all the obvious weirdness, North Korean authorities cannot have plans to seize the neighboring territory and do understand that they will lose in any war with the United States and its allies in the region. North Korea is really very well prepared for a defensive war, but not vice versa!

Therefore, perhaps the main component of the crisis around the North Korea is not the "capabilities" of the missiles, the number of troops and artillery. On the contrary, these are secondary issues that truly serve the geopolitical game in the region and even beyond. 

What is this game all about?

First, it is believed that President Trump has purposefully set the course to intensify tensions on the Korean peninsula. He is not interested in Pyongyang's curbing, but in pressing on Beijing. It may be a pure coincidence but the escalation of the Korean crisis started with the presidency of Mr. Trump. Unlike his predecessors focused on the Middle East, Trump has focused on Southeast Asia from his first days as the president. The American leader has made unfriendly statements on China (at least those concerning the trade) during his election campaign. The expressive and unpredictable president of the United States is making statements in the spirit of his North Korean counterpart. Here is how Trump replied to Kim Jong-un's statement that the Americans "must live constantly looking back and listening": "North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. Otherwise, they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen." Obviously, such an exchange of "courtesies" does not add optimism to the neighbors of North Korea. On the other hand, China can be convicted of using the situation around North Korea for its own interests. After all, it is not a secret that North Korea depends entirely on Beijing economically. In 2016, the foreign trade turnover of North Korea was $6 billion of which 91.5% accounted for China. If Beijing imposes a full embargo on the import of oil products or food products to North Korea, the situation in the latter will be completely catastrophic. This means that China can do anything with Kim Jong-un, but for some reason does not. The arguments that the crowds of starving North Koreans can rush into China has rational though weak reasons. In fact, North Korea is playing a role of buffer for Beijing protecting it from the U.S. and its allies notable for conducting regular sea exercises along the Chinese shoreline, or deploying the American missile defense system THAAD in South Korea. China also uses North Korea as a bargaining chip for achieving its goals. According to Italian Il Foglio, the Chinese are interested in expanding their business abroad, increasing risk-free investments and even gaining control of Fiat Chrysler. In return, Beijing could persuade Kim Jong-un to agree to re-start the negotiations. By the way, perhaps that is the reason explaining China’s recent tough rhetoric on Pyongyang, supporting the sanctions of the UN Security Council, which prohibits North Korean export of coal, iron, lead and seafood. The accounts of the Foreign Trade Bank of the DPRK are frozen, North Korean sea vessels violating UN resolutions are prohibited from entering the ports of all states. It is also prohibited to employ North Korean citizens, to deal with North Korean companies and to invest in operating joint projects.

Secondly, another neighbor of North Korea, Russia, also considers it as a buffer and bargaining chip. Recently, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia could be a mediator between the U.S. President Donald Trump and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un. Of course, Moscow does not have considerable economic pressure on Pyongyang like Beijing but both countries still plan to increase the trade turnover by ten times by 2020. In August, in the midst of the crisis, North Korea opened its first travel agency NKorean in Russia (the countries share a 18-kilometer borderline). Interestingly, after the launch of the missile towards Japan, Mr. Ryabkov said that "the value of sanctions pressure on North Korea has been exhausted. It is no longer possible to adopt resolutions in the UN Security Council indicating the impossibility of a military solution to the problem."

Thirdly, the attempts to understand the source of North Korean nuclear technologies shape a new geopolitical dimension (thousands of kilometers from the Korean peninsula). International experts believe that the rocket engines used in North Korea belong to a Soviet family of engines RD-250, which have ended up in North Korea through illegal channels leading to Ukraine. The media has identified that in 2011, the security services of Ukraine detained two North Koreans, Ryu Songchel and Li Tkhekil, who had photographed classified scientific dissertations relating to ICBMs. According to the report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) referred to by the New York Times, North Korean missiles were most likely created thanks to leaks from the Ukrainian missile company Yuzhmash and the company Yuzhnoye. After the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, both companies faced financial problems since the main buyer of their products was the Russian Federation. Ukrainian officials call these assumptions "provocation" arranged by Russian special services, yet the Ukrainian president Peter Poroshenko ordered an investigation. Interestingly, all these events have started to appear in media when the Americans decide whether to supply anti-tank missiles to Ukraine.

Hence, the conclusion is that the North Korean crisis can be pushed to the "boiling point" artificially. After all, the North Korean nuclear program is quite real and the majority of regional countries including the U.S. have more than impressive armies. It is clear, however, that a possible conflict is quite improbable, will require great sacrifices and, most importantly, can bury not only the North Korean regime but the Trump administration as well. It is most likely that the parties involved in the crisis will consider their goals somehow achieved (even after a certain military phase) and will return to negotiations, and the international community will switch to another victim of the global geopolitical confrontation. Sadly, the ordinary North Koreans, who suffer from the main blow of international sanctions (not Kim Jong Un) will pay the highest price for all these events. According to FAO, the UN organization dealing with agriculture and food, this year North Korea suffered a rare drought comparable to what happened back in 2011. It is expected to get one-third less crops than in 2016, and therefore hunger and epidemics are possible in the country.