THE OPERATION SAAKASHVILI

Yet another unique event marked the political life of Ukraine in September. The main newsmaker was Mikhail Saakashvili, the former president of Georgia, advisor to the president of Ukraine, chairman of the Reform Council and governor of Odessa. It is possible though that Saakashvili is only playing his title role to disguise the larger events, which should begin in Ukraine shortly.

In fact, the goal of Saakashvili's first appearance in Ukraine remains a mystery. First, President Petr Poroshenko appointed him the head of one of the most important areas in the country, a multinational port city, and praised him as a true fighter against corruption. But Saakashvili failed to turn Odessa into a "reform laboratory of Ukraine". His Ukrainian career lasted less than a year and was interrupted by a series of scandals that cost him not only posts, but also his Ukrainian passport, and in fact turned Saakashvili into a stateless person. For some time, Saakashvili lived in the U.S., and then moved to Europe. Finally, he decided to return to Ukraine through Poland. If his first attempt to cross the border by train failed, then on September 10, Saakashvili, with the help of his supporters, members of the ultra-nationalist battalion Donbass, and former bodyguards from Georgia, literally broke through the Shegini checkpoint. The situation was almost unbelievable for many. What will be Saakashvili’s status and the reason of his return to Ukraine?

"I decided to travel all regions of Ukraine to talk to people. We will travel and collect demands... On October 17, we will gather in Kiev peacefully. Although I am an old revolutionary, but I have no desire to organize another revolution," explained Saakashvili. Later, he added that he intended to defend his Ukrainian citizenship in court, which, in his opinion, was simply stolen from him.

Majority of observers believe that Saakashvili's "second advent" in Ukraine is an event that promises changes and can in no way be spontaneous. Firstly, without a passport, without the help of external powers, it is simply impossible to get out of the U.S. to Poland. Incidentally, Kurt Volcker, Washington's special representative in Ukraine (Washington's man in the Normandy format, a CIA analyst, associate of John McCain, who is also a friend of Saakashvili, openly welcomed Saakashvili's arrival in Ukraine.

Secondly, the composition of Saakashvili’s company, which appeared in Lviv, speaks for itself. Especially, the former Prime Minister, leader of Fatherland Party, Yuliya Timoshenko. If she has plans against Poroshenko (and she definitely has them), then Saakashvili is the best candidate for for the role of instigator of the situation, to shape the discontent of Poroshenko's electorate at a later stage of events. Saakashvili is not suitable as Poroshenko's opponent, because his rating is extremely low (2-3%), and according to the current Constitution of Ukraine, he cannot run for president. It is necessary to live in Ukraine for the last ten years before the election day. But Timoshenko can become the head of state, and her rating in Ukraine is quite high (about 9%).

Poroshenko has no other choice currently but to endure Saakashvili's initiative, or to punish "the West’s pet." The first days after the Saakashvili’s breakthrough showed that Poroshenko was enduring him for now. After all, for some reason Saakashvili was not arrested for illegally crossing the border and resisting to law enforcement officers, but attorney general Yury Lutsenko even announced that the former Georgian leader could go where he wished. If the fighters of the Battalion Donbas, which is part of the Ukrainian National Guard, helped Saakashvili then to what extent it is controlled by the government? If the border guards could not detain the offender, how effective are they protecting the country and how should the presidential image look like after this? After all, according to different data, about ten law enforcement officers were injured in the brawl that accompanied the transfer of Saakashvili across the border.

The situation becomes even more uncomfortable for Poroshenko amidst the suspicions that an oligarch and the former head of the Dnepropetrovsk region supports both Timoshenko and Saakashvili. The rumor has it that Kolomoisky supports the battalion Donbass, which helped Saakashvili on the Polish-Ukrainian border. According to some media, shortly before the assault on the border, Saakashvili and Igor Kolomoisky allegedly met in Switzerland, for the sake of a common goal, forgetting long-standing enmity with each other. Former SBU head Valentin Nalivaychenko, Lviv Mayor Andrei Sadovy, and former Defense Minister Anatoly Gritsenko also joined the Saakashvili-Timoshenko alliance. While it is not clear which side supports the Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who hates Saakashvili but gets along with Timoshenko and also allegedly met with Kolomoisky. Sergei Leshchenko, MP and member of Bloc of Petro Poroshenko, also hinted a possible agreement between Avakov and Kolomoisky.

The moment chosen for the operation, codenamed Saakashvili, was also chosen ideally. There is still a lot of time before the presidential elections, but the possible candidates on the finish line can be predicted already. The bill on the reintegration of Donbass is hanging in air, as well as the requirement to comply with the requirements of the IMF (the creation of an independent anti-corruption court, free land market, pension reform, and new law on privatization). These drawbacks of the Poroshenko administration play against the incumbent president, obviously. Opposition parties once again started talking about the impeachment of the president. Incidentally, the law on education was adopted just ‘in time’, according to which beginning from 2018, the "languages ​​of national minorities" will be used only in classes of primary schools, while in secondary school and colleges the education will be provided exclusively in Ukrainian. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Greece, Moldova have already expressed their discontent. Romanian President Klaus Johannis has canceled his visit to Ukraine planned for October.

So, can we expect a new Maidan in Kiev? Judging by how Saakashvili suddenly slowed down the pace, certainly not in the near future. Any upcoming events will be limited to local political wars only. For example, it is rumored that the murder of Timur Makhauri in the center of Kiev on September 8 was a "black spot" for Saakashvili. Makhauri was closely associated with the former deputy minister of Internal Affairs of Georgia, Giorgi Lordkipanidze, who had close ties with Saakashvili and from 2015 to 2016 headed the Odessa regional police. Perhaps a simple coincidence, and perhaps not.

Either way, the aggravation of situation in the southeast of Ukraine is more likely. This can also play against Poroshenko, because the voters do not really want to have another fight. The president cannot get the supply of lethal weapons from the U.S promised as much as in 2014. This mainly includes anti-tank missiles such as Javelin, which experts believe should significantly reduce the Ukrainian losses in the event of military action. Washington seemed to promise Kiev again, but it did not go beyond promises. Meanwhile, the issue of peacekeepers is directly related to the supply of arms. Poroshenko is also seeking the UN support for the introduction of international peacekeeping contingents into the war zone in the east of Ukraine. Unexpectedly for all, Russian President Vladimir Putin also called for the deployment of peacekeepers, but only to protect the observers of the OSCE special monitoring mission. In other words, Russia insists that peacekeepers are on the line of demarcation and not on any other territories. Kiev also believes that the UN mission should have a broader mandate and be located throughout the Donbass region right up to the border with Russia. According to Ukrainian analysts, Putin called for peacekeepers to block possible arms supplies and, in fact, to freeze the existing situation.

The arrival of Saakashvili to Ukraine can also viewed from a different perspective. Nino Burjanadze, former chairman of the Georgian parliament, leader of the Democratic Movement - United Georgia, said in her interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta that Saakashvili" is working for a "serious CIA project" designed to disrupt the holding of the World Cup 2018 in Russia and to influence the presidential elections in Russia. According to Burjanadze, "the powers" behind Saakashvili need to "destabile" the situation in Ukraine, Moldova, and possibly in Georgia. Then Russia will have to take retaliatory actions. "Saakashvili is an excellent candidate for the implementation of this plan. Whatever happens in Ukraine affects Russia in any case," said Burjanadze.

Well, if we consider Ukraine as a traditional battlefield between Russia and the U.S., then the limits of military conversation is set, it just remains to play with what both parties have. The same weapons can raise the bets, but not change the situation. Same as the presence or absence of Saakashvili in Ukraine.