29 March 2024

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A BUNDESTAG SURPRISE

Despite her fourth consecutive win in parliamentary elections, Angela Merkel has to look for new coalition partners

Author:

01.10.2017

"My time is almost over," said Angela Merkel during her final speech at the Bundestag just before the parliamentary elections on September 24, meaning the time allotted for her speech. But it turned out to be a symbolical statement, which made the audience laugh.

Obviously, Mrs. Chancellor was not going to finish her political career and was absolutely sure of her next, already fourth, victory.

And it happened. Her bloc represented by two parties, CDU and CSU, won the majority of votes (33%), which allows forming a majority coalition. But most likely, it will not include the former partners, the Social Democrats (SPD). Currently, CDU/CSU is holding intensive negotiations with the Free Democratic Party (FDP, 10.7%) and the Alliance 90/The Greens (8.9%).

Both parties are not new to big politics. In different years, they were in power as part of ruling coalitions. During 1949-2013, Free Democrats were part of the government, working with the SPD, then with the CDU, including Merkel. The Greens had an experience under the Schroeder government during 1998-2005.

 

Team Jamaica

The new coalition is nicknamed "Jamaica" for the similarity of their party colors with the flag of the island state in the Caribbean - black of CDU / CSU, yellow of FDP, and green of the Greens.

Together, none of these parties cooperated at the federal level. But there share a common regional experience, which was not always successful. In 2009, this union did not last long in the federal state of Saar, and in Schleswig-Holstein, it was formed less than six months ago, in May.

Merkel promises to form a new government until Christmas (December 25), but many doubt that she will be able to settle all the contradictions existing between the four parties of the potential coalition by that time.

Even multi-year partners in the bloc have disagreements. For example, on the issue of refugees. CSU insists on the introduction of an annual quota of admission of 200 thousand people, but Merkel sees this as a contradiction with the Constitution of Germany, which guarantees the right to asylum in the country.

CSU is also against the Greens and Free Democrats as far as the simplification of residence and employment permits to emigrants are concerned. In principle, this is one of the few positions where the Greens and FDP agree. Basically, they have different views on the development of the national economy, environment and foreign policy.

While the parties are ready to make compromises in domestic policy, they have serious disagreements on foreign policy issues, such as anti-Russian sanctions. The Greens are strong opponents of their liberalization, and even abolition. FDP, which mainly represents the interests of large and medium-sized businesses, insists on seeking opportunities to lift sanctions that impede business ties.

For many in Germany, the call of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to German citizens of Turkish origin not to vote for "enemies of Turkey" (CDU, SPD and the Alliance 90/ Greens) was a rude interference in internal affairs of the country. In particular, the Greens insist on harsh retaliatory actions. However, Merkel believes that the agreement between the EU and Turkey on measures to resolve the migration crisis should not be subject to the danger of dissolution.

The law does not limit the time for the formation of a new government, so if the parties do not agree before Christmas, they can continue discussions in the next year.

 

Principles of the Teflon Lady

Even if someone fails to unite so different political powers, but not the Teflon Lady, as her companions nicknamed Merkel for her cold mind and a desire to keep everything under control.

"She rearranges the pieces on a chessboard so that no one is dangerous for her," explains Merkel's biographer, journalist Jacqueline Boysen.

The SPD leader Martin Schulz blamed his rival in systematic appropriation of other people's ideas immediately after he lost the elections (20.5%).

We can understand him. Years of cooperation with CDU shows that the programs of both parties became very similar. In fact, their average voter is the same person with a higher education and a monthly income of about 3 thousand euros.

When Schultz was elected chairman of SPD in March 2017, public polls showed a sharp increase in public interest in the social democrats, who expected new ideas and active actions from the newcomer. Closer to the elections, the ratings of SPD began to fall and as a result, the party scored the worst result in its history. Apparently, Schultz failed to offer the voter something new, different from the ideas of his main competitor.

However, Boysen describes Merkel's behavior differently: "She makes decisions based on indicators, data and facts, easily forgetting the ideological attitudes of her party if the arguments speak in favor of any step."

In 2009, Merkel, a physicist by education, was convincing everyone that nuclear power plants were the future of the power industry and there was no need to abandon them. In 2011, after the infamous accident in Fukushima, the chancellor announced that Germany was abandoning nuclear power. The Greens, who vainly called for this for decades, lost part of their supporters in an instant.

In 2011, the Teflon Lady opposed the conservative part of her own party on the issue of universal military duty in order to attract young people who advocate the creation of a professional army.

In 2015, the majority of CDU members did not support Merkel when she, with the full approval of the leftist opposition, let hundreds of thousands of refugees into Germany. A year later, it became clear that the country could not "digest" such a large number of migrants, and there was growing concern in society because of the increasing number of crimes and terrorist acts. Merkel took measures, and the influx of migrants fell sharply (by 72% in the first six months of 20170), and it is not easy to obtain a refugee status in Germany now.

In the spring of this year, opinion polls showed that the majority of Germans want equal rights for the same-sex marriages. It did not take long (June) for the Bundestag to vote for these changes. The reason for such a hasty move were the forthcoming elections, and the potential partners in future coalition demanded a regulatory act for the same-sex marriages.

After the elections, Merkel forms a coalition with the parties, whose wishes she took into account just a couple of months before. But now she had a new challenges ahead. The CDU / CSU bloc lost 8% of the votes compared to 2013 mainly because part of the supporters moved to the young party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is the newcomer in Bundestag with a very good result (12.6%).

On the night of elections, the Teflon Lady at a meeting with party members sets a new task - to win the voters of Alternative for Germany!

 

The Nazis in the Bundestag?

AfD decided to repay and promised to arrange a "hunt for Mrs. Merkel". In particular, they propose the creation of a parliamentary commission to investigate the actions of the Chancellor in summer 2015, when she, according to AfD, opened the borders and let the uncontrolled influx of refugees without consulting the legislators.

AfD literally burst into a big politics on the wave of anti-immigrant sentiments and took the third place in the Bundestag in terms of the number of votes. However, this success is not enough to get into the government, since the other parties refused to cooperate with AfD in advance.

During four years of existence, AfD has managed to win a bad reputation. As German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said, for the first time after the Second World War, "real Nazis" will again be sitting in the Bundestag.

It all began in 2013 as a protest movement of Eurosceptic intellectuals who demanded to abandon the Euro or to change the European Monetary Union. The party also opposed multibillion-dollar injections into the Greek economy. However, the voters were not particularly interested in this topic, and that year AfD was unable to overcome the 50 percent entry barrier into the Bundestag.

In 2015, Merkel opened the borders for refugees, and citizens moved to AfD dissatisfied with the actions of the authorities. Radicals like Frauke Petry began to enjoy increasing influence in the party, pushing the founders of the party, including Professor Bernd Lucke, into the second roles. He eventually left AfD and formed a new political organization.

The new leaders of AfD, and largely Frauke Petry, who was nicknamed the Fuhrer in a Skirt, suggested shooting refugees trying to infiltrate Germany at the border in, relied on nationalistic and anti-Islamic rhetoric.

This has borne fruits. If the rating of the party did not rise above 3-4% in summer 2015, in spring 2016 it already gained 11-30% or more in some regional elections.

However, over time, the emigrant theme ceases to be relevant. To remind of themselves, AdG leaders began to make rather harsh statements - about the need to rethink the Nazi past, that the Holocaust memorial in Berlin is a "monument of shame in the heart of the capital".

Interestingly, Petry, who had done a lot to attract frank racists and right-wing nationalists to the party, has begun conflicting with them occasionally. After the parliamentary elections, she stated that she did not agree with the radicalization of AdG and left the party in order to engage in "real politics in the spirit of healthy conservatism."

Perhaps Petry will try to persuade some of her supporters in the Bundestag to form a separate faction. According to parliamentary rules, she needs to persuade 35 people, that is, five percent of the total number of deputies to achieve this goal.

So, it may well be that the record set by the current parliament in six factions (by the number of elected parties) is reached even with the current composition.

And it seems that the surprises are not over yet.



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