THE CATALON DRAMA

The referendum on independence held in Catalonia on October 1 puts Spain on the brink of a constitutional crisis and provokes controversy in the West about the essence of liberal democracy. It also defiles the authority of Brussels and, most importantly, demonstrates the imperfection and double standards of the international law. It is a mistake to think that the ongoing events in Barcelona are limited to internal affairs of Spain. These events signal far-reaching consequences no matter how the crisis ends.

After the referendum, the head of the Catalonian government Carles Puigdemont further aggravated the situation saying that the Catalans certainly deserved independence and voted for it in a referendum. However, he immediately added that a legitimate withdrawal from Spain would take some time for negotiations, and therefore the divorce was postponed. After a few hours, Puigdemont, his deputy Oriol Junqueras, Parliament Speaker Carme Forcadell and 72 of 135 MPs signed a declaration of independence claiming that this was a purely symbolic act. As a result, the Spanish Council of Ministers demanded the Catalan authorities to explain whether it was a proclamation of independence.

Catalonia's requests for independence from Madrid have a long history dating back the tenth century. Although many things happened during a course of thousand years but, apparently, the consequences were not that terrible for the Catalans, as they were able to preserve their language, culture, customs, and identity. Back to our days, the region gained autonomy after the death of Franco in 1979, and in 2005, the Spanish parliament recognized the Catalans as a separate nation and granted tax concessions for the region. In 2010, Constitutional Court restricted the rights of the autonomy again and the Catalans were deprived of their right to be called a “people”. Most importantly, they could no longer retain most of the tax revenues. This is a matter of fundamental importance, as Catalonia is one of the richest regions of Spain with a population of 7.5 million people accounting for 26% of all exports and 19% of the Spanish GDP. A popular tourist destination in the world, Catalonia attracts 21% of all investments. It is considered the center of the chemical industry in Europe (Tarragona), and the port of Barcelona is among the twenty largest in the EU. Hence the welfare of Catalonia is one of the motives for demanding independence - the region believes that it gives more than it receives to the local budget.

Therefore, 90% of Catalans voted for independence on October 1 to ensure that all the wealth remains at home. The problem, however, is that the turnout was only 43%, which makes only 2.26 million of 5.31 million voters in the region. Incidentally, it was an expected outcome, as the alliance of parties (CUP, Omnium Cultural, ANC), which now stands for independence, was supported by almost half of the population during the local elections in 2015. About half of Barcelona's residents took part on a general strike the next day after the referendum. And about the same number of residents protested against the withdrawal from Spain on October 7.

Thus, not all the Catalans (rather, only half of them) are in favor of divorce. This is partly because the region's population is not only ethnic Catalans. In fact, it includes many residents from other regions of Spain, as well as migrants who clearly do not share nationalistic sentiments of indigenous people. But the simplest explanation lies in things quite rational. Economically, the withdrawal from Spain is a two-edged sword for Catalonia. For example, the flow of tourists can significantly decrease. The autonomy will automatically lose membership in the EU, and can regain it only with the consent of Spain. Yet not only Madrid will be against this. Catalonia will have to create and maintain customs, tax and border services, foreign ministry, army, central bank and many more institutions that any independent state has and Madrid is currently responsible of maintaining. Not to mention that about half of Catalan goods are consumed in the domestic market, Spain that is. Furthermore, the region has considerable debts (€77 billion), of which €52 billion is claimed by Spain. This is in addition to the national debt, which Madrid can rightly demand to divide. So, the independence of Catalonia can get into an issue of bargain about the public debt, which is almost 130% of GDP. But the worst thing is the loss of business. According to the European media, Madrid has managed to withdraw a number of Spanish banks and companies from Catalonia, therefore the local business elite no longer enthusiastically supports the idea of ​​secession. Incidentally, Madrid applies the same method in the Basque Country.

According to many observers, Madrid could treat the plebiscite initiated by the Catalan government more calmly. It would be enough to reject the results with a respective decision of the Constitutional Court, which in fact recognized the referendum as illegal, and to pressure the Catalan authorities economically. But Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had somehow lost his nerve, and decided to use force sending detachments of national police and civil guards to the polling stations, where they tried to confiscate ballot boxes and prevented the voters from entering the polls using batons, rubber bullets and tear gas. The whole world witnessed the footage as law enforcers pull women by hair and beat the local firefighters with clubs, trying to protect the gathered crowd. The Government of Catalonia stated more than 800 injured during the clashes. In social networks, many did not hide their shock comparing the current Spanish authorities with the Franco regime and wondering how this could happen in a country that is part of the European community. Majority of leading media organizations agreed “the actions of Spanish authorities are counterproductive and unjustifiably harsh”, and strengthen support for real demands for independence and weaken Rajoy's position.

Now, when both sides bear equal responsibility for the events of the recent past, one still is in anticipation of the next. Someone suggests organizing a legitimate referendum like in Scotland. However, this would be illegal according to the Spanish Constitution of 1978, which states that it is “based on the unbreakable unity of the Spanish Nation” and that sovereignty belongs to the “Spanish people”. Therefore, without reforming the Constitution, a referendum on withdrawal may not be conducted legally. Either way, Madrid refuses to negotiate with the Catalan authorities until they return to the “legal channel”, which means that they should give up their claims to independence. Otherwise, it turns out to be a question of equal sovereign subjects. In fact, Madrid can use the 155th article of the Constitution by suspending the duties of Catalan authorities and introducing direct governance. So, it turns out that Puigdemont has caught himself in the crossfire. On the one hand, he understands that he cannot handle the situation quickly, as nobody will support him in violation of the Spanish and European laws. On the other hand, the supporters of independence have also split in two groups - those who demand immediate independence, and those who are willing to wait.

EU is not going to act as an intermediary either. That is why the European Commission stated that the question of the independence of Catalonia is an internal affair of Spain. Meanwhile, much depends on Brussels, given the potential of separatist sentiments in Wallonia and Flanders, Valencia, Galicia, Sicily, Sardinia, Lombardy, Alsace, Bavaria, Corsica, Silesia and Moravia, the Aland Islands, as well as in other regions of Europe. Spain also has the Basque Country with the terrorist ETA. Rich northern regions of Italy, Veneto and Lombardy, are planning to hold a referendum on autonomy on October 22. Britain, which has separated from the EU but is still a part of the European community, has Scotland. The head of the Scottish Government, Nicola Sturgeon, has already expressed her desire to hold a second independence referendum “between autumn 2018 and spring 2019 once the terms of Brexit are clear, but there is still a chance to go our own way.” So, the question is: why is this happening in Europe, where people have long enjoyed the advantages and benefits of open borders and had guaranteed observance of human rights? What are they missing in common?

There are many such questions. The events seem so perplexing (like Puigdemont's behavior) that unwillingly give rise to various conspiracy theories, which at least sound logical. After all, could they really not foresee economic losses that Catalonia would face immediately after the divorce with Spain, which is a topic of hot discussions in all the media and blogs? Or did not Barcelona assume that it would get zero support amidst Madrid’s firm stance? It is no surprise that the absurdity of existing situation has immediately sparkled the old tales claiming that Brussels was indeed interested in the events in Catalonia, as they would contribute to the emergence of small states within the EU that would be impotent to claim own foreign policy and would depend on Brussels economically and bureaucratically. Some political scientists even believe in new reshaping of the world, when the events in Catalonia can be a test ball for creating chaos. After all, there are tens of other regions like Catalonia around the world, and if the inner powers are activated at the right time... According to another version, what we see in Catalonia is not so much pure separatism as a consequence of populist sentiments swinging in the world. Either way, both assumptions may be considered valid.

Without exaggeration, European and even the global values, the very basis of modern political system are at stake. But it certainly will not be an exaggeration to remind the international community that the struggle for inviolability of national borders in South Caucasus has long taken place before deaf and blind Europe. Ever since the international community has turned a blind eye to the beginning of Armenian Miatsum and the occupation of twenty percent of Azerbaijani lands by neighboring Armenia. Baku constantly hears about the need to preserve the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, but nobody is in a hurry to punish the Armenian separatists, who hide behind the notorious principle of self-determination. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has clearly stated that Baku stands for “a peaceful settlement of the current situation in compliance with laws and the Constitution of Spain.” The Republic of Azerbaijan respects territorial integrity and sovereignty within the internationally recognized borders of the Kingdom of Spain. This is the only way to resolve the Catalan crisis and similar crises around the world. Period.