THE GAME OF THRONES

"I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing. Some of those they are harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their country for years!" wrote Donald Trump on his Twitter account during his recent Asian tour.

One can feel a mentoring tone in the words of the American president, but also the calm with which he speaks about large-scale repressions against the members of the royal family - unexpected for the whole world and the victims. This implies that Trump most likely was warned of future events that could radically change the political structure of the country founded by the first king and leader of the ruling dynasty, Abdul-Aziz Al-Saud.

Traditions of the royal family

After the death of the first king in 1954, only his forty-five (legal) sons could claim and inherit the throne. Only nine of his sons are alive, Salman Al-Saud being the reigning king in his eighties. The youngest of the brothers, Mukrin, is now 72 years old. However, the problem is not only in their age, but also in the fact that their father had many wives. This contributed to the creation of intra-family clans through mothers. There is a constant struggle for power between them. In total, the royal family has somewhere around twenty-five thousand people, including about seven thousand princes.

King Salman has poor health and everyone understands that he will not last long on the throne. The issue of succession will be the main intrigue of the Saudi house; an event that emerged just after Salman replaced his half-brother Abdullah (2005-2015) on the throne on January 23, 2015.

According to traditional rules, Crown Prince Mukrin, whose mother was Baraki, has rights to succeed the throne after King Salman. But Mukrin belongs to another clan. His stepbrother has been an heir for only three months. He stepped off involuntarily in favour of his half-brother Mohammed ibn Naif from the same clan. Therefore, he did not really mind. However, the very principle of succession was already changed; the family of many thousands members adopted new customs, and it was relatively easy for King Salman to further advance his own clan.

The next successor to Muhammad ibn Naif was the son of the king (one of his thirteen children), Mohammed ibn Salman (29). Despite his young age, he enjoys full support of his father and actually manages both the internal and foreign policies of Saudi Arabia as deputy prime minister, defense minister, head of the royal court and chairman of the Council for Economic Affairs and Development.

The young prince proclaimed truly revolutionary reforms in the country including the withdrawal from the principles of Wahhabism and economic reforms to make the country consistent with the terms of market economy with the priority development of the non-oil sector.

He promised to establish "moderate Islam that is open to all religions, traditions and people from all over the world." His most striking steps are the abolition of the morality police, which has enjoyed the uncontrolled right to detain and arrest people violating the Sharia law, as well as the active involvement of women in politics and the economy and granting them such rights as permission to drive a car, visiting cinemas, restaurants, sports, etc. together with men.

However, all these plans, as well as the current unlimited possibilities for their implementation, have one significant flaw - they depend on the well-being of the aged monarch. To eliminate the last obstacle, a real revolution happened in June 2017: Mohammed ibn Naif was politely proposed to transfer his rights to the throne to his brother, Mohammed ibn Salman. Apparently, he had nothing left to do but to agree.

Thus, Saudi Arabia adopted new rules of the game: the principles of the classical monarchy with the transfer of power from father to son. Probably, the end of tradition laid down by the founder of the country is in line with the interests of the state than the supposed transition of the throne from grandson to the grandson. After all, with hundreds of candidates for power, there was a risk to split the country into small principalities. Now, however, the huge royal family suddenly lost access to the throne, which dissatisfied many. The history of the family also remembers the cases when the ruler was overthrown violently. For instance, the second king Saud (1953-1964) was displaced after a coup, while King Faisal (1964-1975), who replaced him, was shot by his nephew.

Last fall, publications attributed to one of the princes appeared in social networks, where the author expressed his discontent with the new course of the country calling for the overthrow of the king. In August 2017, an attempt was made on the life of Mohammed ibn Salman. He did not suffer, but one of the princes was arrested.

Crown Prince also faces considerable resistance and sabotage on the part of his numerous relatives opposing many reforms, in particular, those trying to reduce the bureaucracy.

The Reformer

In spring 2016, the government adopted a program of socio-economic reforms "Vision of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: 2030" designed to end dependence on mineral resources and to build a diversified and knowledge-based economy. Developed by American consulting company McKinsey, which incidentally had done the same work for all countries of the Persian Gulf. The same company prepared a roadmap for economic development of Azerbaijan until 2025 and for subsequent years.

The main objective of reforms is to eliminate the dependence of the country on oil revenues by developing other industries such as automobile, steel, aluminum, pharmaceutical production, and tourism. McKinsey promises that with a successful development of events, Saudi Arabia's GDP can double from the current $800 billion to $1.6 trillion, which will advance Saudi Arabia from the 25^th  place to the top ten most competitive economies in the world.

It is therefore planned to increase the Investment Fund (which has declined from $730 to $487 billion in 2014-Aug 2017) to $2 trillion, mainly due to the sale of 5% of the oil giant Aramco, as well as the privatization of state assets. In this case, it will become the largest fund in the world, surpassing the largest Norwegian fund with assets worth $885 billion and Abu Dhabi ($800 billion).

The Hawk

Being a reformer in domestic policy, Muhammad ibn Salman is considered a hawk due to his aggressive and uncompromising foreign policies, although he has not achieved much success in this field yet. Until now, the exhausting military campaign initiated by him in neighboring Yemen in March 2015 has been unsuccessful. The country is ceasing the support of the anti-Asad forces in Syria. The economic blockade of Qatar also initiated by ibn Salman in June did not lead to any results.

All these actions are dictated by the persistent desire of the Crown Prince to continue confrontation with Iran. In summer, he announced that Tehran plans to invade Saudi territory. Just a few days ago, the Saudi government announced that Hezbollah supported by Iran and controlling Lebanon declared war on Riyadh.

Operation Cleanup

Perhaps, the rumors about imminent resignation of the existing King are justified, as soon after the appointment of Muhammad ibn Salman as direct heir, preparations for a conflict-free procedure for the transfer of power has begun.

The first large-scale arrests of opposition members took place in September, resulting in the arrest of well-known clergymen and theologians.

Mass arrests continued in November. It was announced that hundreds of people were arrested on charges of corruption and abuse of office, including members of the royal family, ministers and other high-ranking officials, businessmen, and military. Their bank accounts are frozen.

Despite the arrests, deaths have also encountered. One prince crashed in his helicopter near the border with Yemen, another was shot when his guards tried to resist during his detention.

Just a few hours before the first arrests, a royal decree was promulgated on the creation of the Supreme Committee to Combat Corruption to be led by the Crown Prince. The Committee has rights to investigate, arrest, prohibit travel, freeze accounts, track the assets of persons involved in corrupt schemes.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the authorities plan to confiscate up to $800 billion. Apparently, these actions should serve two objectives at once: to reduce financial potential of opponents, and to replenish the Investment Fund designed to finance economic and social reforms.

To limit himself and future rulers in making voluntary decisions, in 2006 King Abdullah created the so-called Fidelity Council, which includes the sons of the founder of the dynasty or their heirs. The King believed it was his duty to convince the members of the council, which actually includes all the family clans, before making any decisions. He often had to find compromises for the sake of preserving the unity of nation.

King Salman and his son violated this tradition. Mohammed ibn Salman aspires to individual power. Therefore, not only will he continue to clear his way to the throne, but also he will be intolerant to dissent and objections.

He follows the same path in foreign policy, trying hard to establish Saudi Arabia as a regional power. Therefore, we are expected to witness new trials and challenges in the Middle East.