TOPSIDE SCAMMERS

On March 2, Armen Sarkissian was elected a new president of Armenia for the next seven-year term on a non-alternative basis. 90 of 105 members of the parliament supported his candidacy. Sarkissian's nomination was put forward by the ruling coalition of the Republican Party of Armenia and the Dashnaks with the blessing of the outgoing head of state. After his presidential term ending in early April, the incumbent president Serzh Sarkissian intends to take over the post of prime minister. After all, in accordance with the changes introduced in Armenian Constitution, prime minister will have a real power in the country including the control over law enforcement agencies.

A transition from presidential to parliamentary form of government was implemented as early as the end of 2015. At the referendum initiated by President Serzh Sarkissian and the ruling coalition, the relevant amendments to the Constitution were adopted, according to which the president, who previously had enormous powers and was elected by popular vote, is now appointed by the parliament. The head of state becomes a ceremonial figure, performing representative functions and formally is the guarantor of compliance with the Constitution.

British subject as Armenian President

Armen Sarkissian (65) is a physicist, who has received training as an intern and then taught at one of the British universities. He fits a role of Armenian president ideally. Later, after Armenia gained independence, he has exercised various diplomatic functions in London and Brussels. In mid-90s, Armen Sarkissian headed the Armenian government, but four months later left this position after quarreling with the then Defense Minister, influential Vazgen Sarkissian. It is believed that his namesake gave him a slap in the office. Although Armen Sarkissian allegedly left for London for medical treatment, he, along with the scientific and pedagogical activity, has also performed as a successful businessman. At the same time, A. Sarkissian acquired British citizenship, which he later refused after his appointment as the Armenian Ambassador to the UK. It should be noted that the opposition called this statement into question during one of the parliamentary discussions. After all, the required written confirmation of Sarkissian’s refusal of British citizenship was not presented to the parliament, as the procedure prescribed by law was not carried out appropriately.

Armen Sarkissian has long had strong ties with western economic and political elite, as well as influential representatives of the Armenian Diaspora. He is a regular participant of the Davos forum, a member of the Kennedy School of Management at Harvard University. His previous positions also include adviser to BP, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch and other companies. But to avoid a reputation of a "too pro-Western politician", Armen Sarkissian visited Moscow in early February as a presidential candidate. However, he is unlikely to dispel doubts that, like the predecessors in this post, will be oriented toward Russia. After all, in the UK, where he has spent many decades, it is difficult to penetrate through strong Russophobic sentiments for a person who does not hide his close relations with the British establishment either.

Serzh Sarkissian will resign from office on April 9, and on the same day, same as the Armenian government. Prime Minister and other members of the government will become temporarily acting. On April 10, according to the regulations, the name of the candidate must be disclosed, which is determined by agreement with the ruling parliamentary coalition. The election of the prime minister is scheduled for April 17.

Kocharian’s "Black Spot"

Obviously, the preceding intricate and multimove combination was played by the incumbent President Serzh Sarkissian to retain his power after stepping back from the presidency. After all, many people in Armenia, including the former president Robert Kocharian and other influential and wealthy people, could claim this top position and become dangerous for Serzh Sarkissian and his clan. To make the necessary changes in the Constitution, Sarkissian even publicly stated that, in case of their adoption, he would not qualify for higher positions. Since the parliament will make a final decision on the new government, Sarkissian invited the incumbent Prime Minister K. Karapetian from Moscow to ensure the victory of his party in the elections. First, Karapetian was a fresh image of a politician that could inspire voters with hopes for change. Secondly, Sarkissian demonstrated his readiness to continue the pro-Russian line of power in Armenia. Finally, he has Karapetian’s nomination actually blocked the ambitions of his most dangerous rival, past patron and partner Robert Kocharian, who enjoys special support and confidence from Moscow.

To completely block Kocharian’s possible interference in this power game, the majority of the ruling Republican Party unexpectedly supported the initiative of Nikola Pashinian, the leader of the opposition parliamentary faction Elk, urging for the interrogation of ex-President Robert Kocharian regarding his role in shooting the civilians protesting against the falsification of election results in March 2008. Chairman of the former interim parliamentary commission on the events of March 1, 2008, Samvel Nikoyan, publicly announced the need to summon Robert Kocharian for interrogation. This was a "black spot" sent to Kocharian's supporters remaining in the power, which also forced him to become fiercely defensive.

Defeats in a treacherous game

A recent statement that Armenia withdraws from the Zurich protocols on normalizing relations with Turkey and stops the process of their ratification did not go unnoticed amidst Serzh Sarkissian's chain of complex internal and external political manoeuvres. In fact, the statement did not have any special significance since the process was frozen anyway thanks to Yerevan’s refusal to take a constructive stance in the Karabakh settlement. Ankara had previously announced the impossibility to open the borders with Armenia without the beginning of the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. In fact, Sarkissian just stated that his insidious game supported by traditional western patrons and aimed at driving a wedge between Ankara and Baku failed. But he tried to score additional points in the eyes of the Dashnaks and among a certain part of the foreign Armenian diaspora, which manifests zoological turkophobia.

After all, with all his conceit, both Serzh Sarkissian and his self-satisfied Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian understand that Armenia does not mean much for Turkey. Ankara concluded these protocols with Armenia solely in order to remove artificial obstacles for Turkey's admission to the European Union. As is known, now the question of Turkey's membership in this organization by Brussels and the leading powers is frozen. Therefore, the need for forced normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations has disappeared. Armenia, with its insignificant economy and poor population, matters only for the Turkish regions adjacent to the border. For Armenia, however, the situation is exactly the opposite. The population of Turkey is more than 28, and the economy is 100 times. Yerevan will sooner or later have to bow to Ankara to discover the way to the capacious, 80 million Turkish market and get rail and highway communications for the transit of goods to the Middle East and South Europe. So, for propaganda purposes, Armenians can fumigate as much as they please, but they can not change the geographic, demographic and economic realities.

The overused intrigue

Politically, Armenia is completely prepared to see Serzh Sarkissian’s nomination as a prime minister on April 10 and his appointment thanks to the support of the parliamentary coalition of RPA and Dashnaks on April 17. But, apparently, Sarkissian still has some doubts, and he does not fully reveal his cards until the last minute. It seems that Serzh Sarkissian exercises the prolongation of his power without Moscow's approval, and therefore is afraid of explosive compromising material that can be unexpectedly dumped out to opposition, which will be difficult to counter. By nominating his pro-Western protégé Armen Sarkissian as a new president, signing an agreement with the European Union, numerous visits to Western countries, Serzh Sarkissian actually demonstrates to Moscow that if he is not supported, Armenia can move towards the West, like Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine.

Serzh Sarkissian is afraid that after the elections in Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, he will face a demand of Russia to moderate its territorial ambitions, to stop delaying the negotiations and to start a gradual withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. The strengthening of Armenia’s pro-Western foreign policy vector, demonstrative "friendship" with Georgia should, according to Serzh Sarkissian and his men, prompt the Kremlin not to force the scenario unpleasant to Armenians.

Also, it is still not clear who will conduct the negotiation process on the Karabakh settlement. Previously, it was the responsibility of foreign minister and president. Now the foreign policy and security are concentrated in the government, and specifically in the hands of the prime minister, who is the highest official of Armenia. However, with the consent of the government, the parliament can make any person, including the president, eligible to hold the Karabakh talks. Apparently, Armenian authorities will resort to this option only if they want to artificially delay the negotiations by introducing a new, inadequately informed person. But there is no time for such manoeuvres any more. By refusing to negotiate for concrete results and by evading the liberation of occupied Azerbaijani territories Armenia can only bring the war closer. I believe that the Armenians and the power behind them should reconsider the existing situation. Large-scale military exercises in Azerbaijan, which involve up to 25,000 troops, 250 tanks and other armoured vehicles, about 1,000 missile-artillery installations, and 50 units of army and front-line aviation, are an unequivocal reminder of this.