REGAINING REGIONAL CONTROL

The offensive code-named as Operation Olive Branch began on January 20 at 17:00. Typically, such military campaigns are launched in the morning. In this case, however, the Turkish military preferred the evening hours for the offensive to demonstrate, first of all, its moral readiness and to have a psychological advantage over the terrorists immediately after the launch of the operation. These factors were extremely important for the Turkish military. This plan was carried out very successfully, and even easier than the previous operation, the Euphrates Shield. Firstly, in comparison with the Olive Branch, the enemy groups opposing the Turkish army during the Euphrates Shield were more numerous and diverse. Secondly, during the Operation Euphrates Shield, the ISIS and PYD (Democratic Union Party) / PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party) terrorists used civilians, especially children, against the Turkish military.

The terrorists have tried again to resort to this tactic at the beginning of the Olive Branch. However, in order to avoid a similar scenario, the Turkish military distributed brochures and leaflets among the Kurdish population of the region stating that PYD/PKK were terrorist organizations, while the purpose of the Turkish military was to establish peace and stability in the area. Also, thanks to its programs in Kurdish language, the Turkish state-owned TRT radio and television company had conducted explanatory work among the local population. As a result, any attempts of PYD/PKK terrorists to use civilians as a human shield were in vain.

It should be noted that the Turkish army has made a clear division between the civilians and terrorists. If one compares the operation in Afrin with similar offensives in Aleppo or Iraqi Mosul, there is a higher level of protection of the civilian population. Thus, as a result of the air strikes of the American coalition on Mosul and Russia on Aleppo, when the military had made no difference between the civilian population and terrorists, these cities turned into ruins with numerous casualties among the civilians. In Afrin, however, the Turkish military has managed to save the city and take it without heavy air strikes.

Currently, the Turkish army controls over 2500 square kilometres of the territory with 49 servicemen killed and about 300 wounded. Terrorists have lost about 4,000 people.

By the way, it is interesting that the video and photo coverage released by the media shows state-of-the-art weapons of PYD/PKK terrorists and professionally equipped underground warehouses for their storage. But how come that a terrorist organization affords well-fortified weaponry stores under the mountains? How could an ordinary terrorist organisation with scarce material base, financial and technical potential build high-tech fortified zones without the support from the outside? There is a very concrete and short answer to both these questions: of course, it could not!

Given the well-known fact of the constant supply of various weapons to the PKK / PYD terrorists from the U.S., it is likely that they also helped these organisations in the construction of storage facilities. Naturally, all these processes negatively affect the Turkish-American relations, contributing to the rapprochement of Turkey with Russia.

By giving the Turkish Air Force an access to the Syrian sky during the Afrin operation and indirectly supporting the actions of Ankara, Russia has actually raised the level of confidence in itself from Turkey. This cooperation in the Syrian airspace is especially relevant if one considers the unpleasant moment when Greece, Turkeys's ally in NATO, has tried to violate the Turkish airspace during military exercises. After this incident, Greece tried to prove its actions in the relevant NATO bodies and, interestingly, a number of NATO member-states actually defended the Greek position. Having this and the Turkish Syrian campaign, Ankara's rapprochement with Moscow is very important.

For Turkey, the Afrin operation is of great importance in terms of improving the security of its borders. Indeed, Turkey has the longest border with Syria - 911 km. Insufficient control of this borderline in the past has cost Turkey the terrorist attacks in the cities of Reyhanli and Kilis. In other words, thanks to the Operation Olive Branch, Turkey was able to ensure the security of its border regions.

Meanwhile, the operation Olive Branch was also a landmark event in terms of its moral and psychological significance for the Turkish military, which has been worse for wear after the attempted coup on July 15, 2016, when a large number of officers directly or indirectly involved in the terrorist organisation FETÖ were expelled from the armed forces. Nevertheless, the Turkish military demonstrated high performance during the recent military operations, which was extremely important.

In general, the success of the Operation Olive Branch has demonstrated a growing role of Turkey in the region. Back in 1996, Turkey paid $1 billion to Israeli companies for upgrading a fleet of its F-16 military aircraft. Nevertheless, Turkey periodically has had serious difficulties with the U.S. and Israel regarding the purchase of drones or the exchange of information. During the Operation Olive Branch, however, the Turkish military used its own drones, which have demonstrated quite an optimistic performance. Thanks to their pinpoint strikes, it was possible to take Afrin with low losses. This positive outcome of the operation will help Turkey in future when creating unmanned military aircraft F-35. By testing its technological advancement in Afrin, Turkey has attracted the attention of regional powers. Thus, the success of the Afrin operation helped Turkey once again manifest itself as the main actor of regional processes.

The main difficulty for Turkey, or even a challenge for it, is the coordination of the actions of different combat groups that make up the Free Syrian Army (FSA) backed by the Turkish army. Different assessments of processes and contradictions within FSA complicate control over this structure, which is especially evident in ideological moments. There are forces inside FSA that are close in their views and outlook to the Anatolian Muslims. However, very radical elements are also strong, which in the future can lead to rather negative consequences. If Turkey, like during the Operation Olive Branch, can resolve these differences and coordinate the activities of the FSA factions, this will significantly stabilize the regional situation. Conflicts inside FSA after the end of the operation Olive Branch play most of all in the hands of the Syrian regime.

The Afrin operation has also a positive impact on the situation inside Turkey as part of the fight against the PKK terrorists. The significance of this thesis can be explained as follows: once the leader of this terrorist organisation, Osman Ocalan, who replaced his elder brother, Abdullah Ocalan, currently serving a life sentence, led the terrorists to open armed confrontation with the Turkish military in Northern Iraq and suffered a heavy defeat. As a result, the PKK was unable to recover for a long time. In Afrin, terrorists made the same mistake and failed again. This means that the PKK will not be able to recover for a long time either. If Ankara establishes and develops good relations with the local population in the eastern and south-eastern regions of the country, their participation in terrorist organisations will be reduced to nothing. And if earlier, according to different estimates, about 5 thousand terrorists were hiding in the Turkish mountains, today they do not exceed even half of this number.

Operation Olive Branch was of vital importance for Turkey, strengthening the country's regional position. The successful completion of this anti-terrorist operation allows Ankara to regain regional control of the situation and to continue playing an instrumental role in establishing peace and stability in the region.