WORSE THAN THE WORLD WAR III

April 2018: never has the world faced a more serious risk of collision between Russia and a group of Western states led by the U.S. and Great Britain since the Caribbean crisis. No fatal mistake has been recorded as of writing this article, and we will not know the winners and losers in this conflict any time soon. However, the system of international relations is going through major changes, which are irreversible.

Trump’s difficult choice

We can clearly see three seemingly different but in fact closely linked opposition fronts against Russia: the accusations of interfering in the U.S. election campaign of 2016, supporting the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad and poisoning the former spy Sergei Skripal in the UK. The Western toolbox includes economic sanctions, expulsion of diplomats and military force, while Russia has so far used only a series of retaliatory diplomatic measures by constantly denying its involvement.

FBI and the Congress are still investigating the alleged Russian interference in the U.S. elections, as well as the collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. Incidentally, both the White House and the Kremlin deny these accusations. Even Facebook got a good hammering. During a congressional hearing on April 10, CEO of the company, Mark Zuckerberg, had to answer questions about the leakage of sensitive user data from the largest social network to third parties. It is assumed that this data could be used during the U.S. election campaign of 2016 and the Brexit referendum on the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union. Zuckerberg regretfully acknowledged the "slow response" of his company to Russian activities in the social network and said that his company was in "arms race" with Russia, which was quite an unexpected revelation.

Despite almost a year and a half passed since the inauguration of Donald Trump, this story is picking up traction obviously being a source of huge inconvenience for the American president. Ex-FBI chief Robert Mueller, a special counsel appointed to oversee the investigation, may safely be called the main enemy of the incumbent president. In his emotional statements, Mr. Trump invests about the same amount of force and time to criticise Mueller and the external threats to the United States (mainly Russia, Iran, and North Korea). But some observers believe that regardless of the relevancy of the Kremlin-Tramp conspiracy, the American president risks his own reputation by establishing relations with Moscow. For instance, according to The Spectator, Trump is trying to follow the same path as did his predecessor Bill Clinton during his ‘split screen presidency’ when CNN literally had missiles flying through the night sky towards Iraq in one half of the picture while Mr. Clinton denied allegations about his sex life in the other. Now, Trump is allegedly engaged in balancing "the war against the FBI and the war against Syria."

The Skripal Case

Meanwhile, the scandal around the poisoning of the former Russian spy and GRU officer Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yuliya in Salisbury, UK on March 4 has been gaining momentum rapidly. According to the British Prime Minister Theresa May: " Either this was a direct act by the Russian state against our country, or the Russian government lost control of this potentially catastrophically damaging nerve agent and allowed it to get into the hands of others." This is a very serious accusation indeed. As a result, the United States and a number of Western countries including Canada expelled scores of Russian diplomats. Washington also introduced a new sanctions package against the largest Russian companies, which applies to not only the American nationals and companies but also the third-country partners and investors. This measure proved to be very effective: the Russian oligarchs Oleg Deripaska, Viktor Vekselberg, Igor Rotenberg, and Kiril Shamalov have lost billions of dollars within a few days following the introduction of sanctions. The shares of Lukoil, Novatek, NLMK, Fosagro, Polyus Zolota, Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz, and Rusal dropped drastically at the London Stock Exchange followed by the fall of the Russian currency, rouble. As to the scope of Russian losses, according to the U.S. statistical data, the volume of direct Russian supplies to the U.S. reached $17 billion (4.7% of total Russian exports) including oil, metals, nuclear fuel, mineral fertilizers, and fish.

In turn, Moscow expelled the same number of foreign diplomats and closed the office of the British Council in Russia. However, Russia has practically no tools for retaliatory actions in economy. The U.S. is buying titanium, rocket engines, and fuel for its nuclear power plants from Russia but it seems the refusal to trade with America will hit Russia harder considering that Washington is preparing new sanctions for its neighbour. Therefore, the Kremlin seems to be adapting to the existing situation. As with accusations of interference in the U.S. elections, Moscow argues that the Skripal case is "a planned act of provocation to demonise and isolate Russia," and Mrs. May’s attempt to divert public attention from domestic problems related to the Brexit.

Escalation in Syria

Another key factor in the latest escalation of conflict in Syria was the use of chemical weapons. It all began with the reports of the Syrian-American Medical Society (SAMS) and a number of other local organisations about an alleged chemical attack at the beginning of April when an offensive to capture the city of Douma, the last settlement in Eastern Ghouta not controlled by the Syrian army, resulted in civilian victims. Washington blamed Moscow and Tehran, as they support Bashar al-Assad, and announced a possibility of "collective military response." Incidentally, the U.S. launched 59 Tomahawk missiles a year ago towards a Syrian airbase in response to a chemical attack in the Idlib province. British Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron supported Trump's position. The story soon had a wide media coverage reporting on the concentration of Western military around Syria.

Russia denies the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian army blaming the West of its attempt to justify the cause of possible air strikes. Given the earlier warning message by the head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, about shooting down American missiles and their carriers if they cause any threat to Russian military personnel within the target zones of the planned attack, it seems we are getting really close to the World War III.

Fake reality

Same as Kennedy and Khrushchev, neither Putin, nor Trump dare bring the existing situation to a state of a nuclear war. The Syrian showdown will remain an indirect conflict and only one of the episodes of confrontation between Russia and the West, which can nevertheless occur at any other point of the world at any moment. But this does not make our lives easier. On the other hand, it is difficult, if not impossible, to express the developing situation with a familiar definition of the Cold War because it seems much more complicated and serious than 56 years ago. Despite the seemingly classical configuration of forces, what is happening goes beyond all the established rules of international relations. The Cold War, with its clear definitions of "red lines", ideology, borders, protocols, and spheres of influence, seems almost a safe and cosy system, a reminiscence of the past. Now everything is blurry, interdependent, and constantly changing. Diplomacy, for instance, has become an expendable material and is losing its special mission of communication between states, which had long served as the only source of hope at critical moments.

The fact that the events are developing in a new information era, whose impact on individuals and states is far from being obvious (e.g., the recent Facebook data leak discussed above) adds another dimension to the whole story. For instance, the American president does not need to disturb his own press service or to call a press conference any more to address the nation, partners or enemies. Now he only needs his smartphone and just a couple of seconds to air his message. That’s how Donald Trump has made almost the whole world frantic with his controversial tweets about Syria, where he first warned Russia about American missiles, then called it to stop the arms race. Even the foreign ministries of different countries now communicate with each other and, most importantly, with their target audiences increasingly through social networks. Meanwhile, the media space is full of fake news, while each and every web-user pretends to be a military or political expert.

All this creates confusion and chaos further strengthening a sense of lost vision and reference points. Do you still remember when you’ve last heard the voice of ordinary Syrians? Not Bashar al-Assad, not Putin or Trump speaking for them but the real people of Syria? Do you know what they really want, how they see the situation, or whom they consider guilty? Even if this voice is heard somewhere, there is still a serious doubt as to whether it is reliable. If you ever think about this, the current state of affairs is no less intimidating than a nuclear war.