"DREAM" OR "MOVEMENT"

The murder of two teenagers provoked a new wave of protests in Georgia. Initially the people protested against the passive investigation of the case by the Office of the Prosecutor General. But soon the protests took on a political dimension firstly because the protesters demand the resignation of the government and PM George Kvirikashvili, and secondly, the party of ex-President Mikhail Saakashvili, the United National Movement (UNM) takes an active part in the protests. Even the dismissal of the Prosecutor General or the establishment of a parliamentary commission to investigate the murder of teenagers and the extent of negligence of law enforcement agencies could not help to cool the passions.

What may be the outcome of the growing protest movement in Georgia? We can assume two possible scenarios: resignation of the power ministers or a change of power in the country. Either way, the supporters of Saakashvili, who lives outside the country due to criminal cases initiated against him in Georgia, may well become the winners of this race.

The resignation of power ministers, who are the key figures of the group controlled by Bidzina Ivanishvili, may not only significantly weaken the political stance of the unofficial leader of the country, but also give the disgraced president Saakashvili a chance to drop the criminal cases against him under the new heads of power ministries. If the wave of popular discontent "floods" the government of the Georgian Dream, the UNM will once again have an opportunity to return to the forefront of Georgian politics.

Experts are inclined to believe that the real purpose of protests in Georgia is the change of government with the possible return of Saakashvili's party to power. Who is interested in pursuing such a goal? A rather rhetorical question, isn’t it? Saakashvili's close ties with leading Western centres of power are so obvious that the implementation of a plan focused on the return of the most Euro-Atlantic political force to this South Caucasian country seems quite possible, especially when the US and the EU periodically expressed their discontent over the shadow administration of Ivanishvili and the wide-scale protests ongoing in Georgia.

Who is the boss?

According to Forbes, Bidzina Ivanishvili, a former co-owner of the Rossiyskiy Kredit bank, is the richest person in Georgia (six years ago his fortune was $6.4b). He led the Georgian Dream Coalition to victory in the 2012 parliamentary elections. Since then, the United National Movement led by the then President Mikhail Saakashvili has been pushed to the margins of Georgian political arena. Saakashvili is still living abroad while the Georgian Dream firmly holds the reins.

Founder of the Dream, Ivanishvili, served as Georgian prime minister in October 2012-November 2013. He then announced his resignation from politics "most likely forever". He explained his decision by accomplishing his mission, which was "to remove Mikhail Saakashvili from the political scene".

However, despite Georgi Margvelashvili’s election as the new president of Georgia in late 2013, Ivanishvili is still considered the shadow leader of the country both in Georgia and abroad; the actual head of state appointing officials, in particular prime ministers and ministers, who determines the key areas of domestic and foreign policy. Suddenly in late April 2018, Ivanishvili announced his intention to return to big politics. In fact, Prime Minister Georgi Kvirikashvili said that Ivanishvili accepted his offer to return to as a chairman of the party led by Kvirikashvili. A few days later, a congress of the ruling party took place in Tbilisi, where Ivanishvili was unanimously elected the chairman of the Georgian Dream.

It is clear that “Ivanishvili's return to big politics” is nonsense, as he did not leave it at all. Rather, we had better ask a reasonable question: what prompted the billionaire Ivanishvili, the actual leader of the Georgian Dream, to return to the formal leadership of the ruling party?

Most Georgian experts believe that the shadow leader is returning to the leadership of his own party because of the growing internal opposition between the various groups within the party. In other words, Ivanishvili's objective is to prevent the split of the Georgian Dream.

Obviously, this version sounds serious. Recently, a group of deputies from the Georgian Dream openly opposed the Speaker Irakli Kobakhidze accusing him of exerting pressure on party members to establish their own individual leadership within the ruling power. On the other hand, the deputies also urged the approval of Ivanishvili's sole leadership at the formal level. In fact, there are expectations within the party that with the return of Ivanishvili the "renewal" of the party will begin and it will be cleaned of unnecessary people in its governing bodies.

Meanwhile, the head of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Gia Nodia, believes that the return of Ivanishvili to politics means the recognition of his own fault concerning the ineffectiveness of "informal governance" model. After all, it was Ivanishvili, who attempted to retain control over the country through his "managers", which led to confrontation within the ruling party. Given that the conflict has seriously worsened these days, the billionaire had no other choice than to get involved in the process officially.

However, the opposition has a different opinion: Ivanishvili's return is caused not so much by the contradictions within the Georgian Dream, as by the growing social and economic crisis in Georgia. According to Ivanishvili's enemy, ex-President Mikhail Saakashvili, the founder of the Georgian Dream is returning to politics under the influence of the "velvet revolution" in Armenia. "Ivanishvili is intimidated by the overthrow of oligarchy in neighbouring Armenia and does not want the same scenario take place in Georgia," Saakashvili wrote on his Facebook page.

Yet it's still impossible to believe with absolute certainty in the existence of any connection between the change of power in Armenia and the latest political decisions of Ivanishvili. The socio-economic situation in Georgia however is deteriorating together with increasing unpopularity of the Georgian Dream. Georgian voters still remember that after coming to power in 2012, Ivanishvili promised to achieve a real economic breakthrough in three years, which will be so stunning that even the residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will hasten to return peacefully under the control of Tbilisi. However, Georgia did not witness economic prosperity even after six years, while Abkhazia and South Ossetia are still far from giving up their games of independence with all-round support from Russia.

Given these factors, Ivanishvili's decision to officially head the ruling party and confirm his actual leadership over not only the Georgian Dream but over the whole country is aimed at securing the power in his own hands. In addition, with the parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2018, Ivanishvili is certainly interested in using his "return" to ensure the new success of his political potential. Some Georgian experts believe that Ivanishvili may even decide to become the president of Georgia, which will make it possible to adopt such an institutional order that entirely meets the interests of the Dream and its leader.

Meanwhile, yet another factor could encourage Ivanishvili to openly declare his intention to take control over the ruling party. The West has repeatedly signalled its dissatisfaction with the shadow role of Ivanishvili in the power system of Georgia. Therefore, it is also possible that international pressure also affected the decision of the billionaire and ex-prime minister to return to the official leadership of the Georgian Dream.

Strategy cannot be changed

Because of Ivanishvili's "return", the interested external centres are trying to predict a set of corrective measures regarding Tbilisi’s political line on international arena. It is obvious that Georgia, although it expresses the intention to establish a more or less normal dialogue with Russia, will nevertheless continue to follow the Euro-Atlantic course. The meetings and statements made during the celebration of the 100^th anniversary of the Georgian Republic in May also displayed this intention.

In particular, one of the protégées of Ivanishvili, Prime Minister Georgi Kvirikashvili stated that Georgia was working daily to become a member of the European Union and NATO. The President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who attended the celebrations in Tbilisi, promised Georgia "all kinds of support" from the EU. This includes, in particular, additional financial assistance of €85m by the European Union. At the same time, Junker recalled that between 2014 and 2018 Georgia received €597 million from the EU.

Amidst the growing Georgian-Euro-Atlantic rapprochement and a rather obvious failure to settle Georgian-Russian relations, the desire of Armenian authorities to affirm Yerevan as Tbilisi's priority interest is worth attention. Armenia hopes that the course towards rapprochement with Georgia initiated by Ivanishvili during his premiership and continued by the subsequent heads of Georgian government Irakli Garibashvili and Georgi Kvirikashvili will not only be continued but also substantially strengthened.

However, the ongoing processes in the South Caucasus demonstrate a lack of real space for expanding Georgia's cooperation with Armenia. In principle, such a cooperation is impossible due to practically lifeless Armenian economy. Yet Georgia is objectively interested in further participation in major regional projects implemented by Azerbaijan.

At the end of May, the Southern Gas Corridor was officially opened. This pipeline system is designed to take natural gas from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey and the European Union. Along with many other projects in which Georgia participates jointly with Azerbaijan, SGC is promising as another factor to strengthen the strategic alliance between Baku and Tbilisi. This circumstance will undoubtedly be taken into account by any Georgian leadership, regardless of the personalities coming or returning to it.