29 March 2024

Friday, 18:44

MEXICAN SUPERSTAR

Obrador ends almost one hundred years of one-party rule in Mexico

Author:

15.07.2018

On June 1, after two unsuccessful attempts to become the president of Mexico (in 2006 and 2012), Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO as he is called in Mexico, defeated his rivals with a crushing victory. His National Regeneration Movement (the Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, MORENA) received a majority in the lower house of parliament and half the seats in the Senate, as well as most of the leading posts in those regions and cities where local elections were held.

The fact that throughout the entire election campaign (since September 2017) the most popular hashtag in social networks was #AMLOVE manifests wide popularity of López Obrador, even a collective euphoria in the country, which is unusual for Mexican politicians. The Milenio, an influential Mexican newspaper, which had never shown sympathies to any elected president of the country, came out the day after the vote with an attractive title “López Obrador ‘superstar’” and the following statement: ‘A special period of our history began - a period of peace, harmony, and hope.’

In fact, the word “began” is not entirely true. According to the Mexican Constitution, the inauguration of the president will take place in five months, only on December 1. The constitution is partially copied from the American one, where the period between the elections and the inauguration of the president was once even more than five months. Then in the United States, the ceremony was transferred from April 30 to March 4 (1801) finally decreed on January 20 (1981). In Mexico, for decades, power was in the hands of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and nobody was interested in reducing the transition period. However, during the reforms of 2014, it was decided to reduce the transition period to three months starting from 2024. So, López Obrador is the last Mexican president to wait for his inauguration for five months.

 

Safety concerns

Mexicans believe that the victory of AMLO ended almost a centennial period of the one-party rule of PRI born in the flames of revolution and the civil war of 1910-1920, when the 30-year-old dictatorship of Porfirio Díaz was overthrown and a bloody civil war erupted killing nearly 2 million lives out of 15-million population of Mexico.

From the progressive movement, once defending constitutional gains of the revolution, PRI has eventually evolved into an unwieldy, thoroughly corrupt, giant bureaucratic machine. It retained influence in the country even in 2000-2012, when the presidents of the country were the representatives of the oppositional National Action Party (PAN). In 2014, the incumbent president of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), either jokingly or seriously told reporters that corruption is part of Mexican DNA and cannot be eliminated. As if in support of his words, in the same year a scandalous corruption scandal erupted in which the wife of the president and his closest associates were involved.

No matter how serious the carried out economic reforms are in the country, including attracting foreign capital, encouraging private entrepreneurship and raising the public welfare, two problems, corruption and drug trafficking, have made Mexico one of the most unsafe countries for living. Last year, the Mexican city of Los Cabos took the first place in the list of 50 most dangerous cities in the world. This list includes 11 more Mexican cities.

For decades, authorities have been trying to combat crime in the country, but the crime rates are only growing. In 2006, the government declared a real war against the organized crime involving the army and heavy weapons. It continues to this day. The war has already killed more than 200 thousand people with 30 thousand people missing. The number of victims is growing every year. This year will not be an exception either. About 95% of all crimes and more than 98% of murders remain undisclosed.

In each presidential election, candidates give promises on economic growth and social benefits, but the problems of corruption and organized crime remain. The government does not know how to handle the problem, so they prefer to remain silent.

This time it was the newly elected president López Obrador, who promised to put an end to the two most serious problems of the country. As a result, he won the elections with an overwhelming advantage of more than 53% of votes.

This victory becomes more prominent and reassuring because the members of the Morena coalition will have to combat not only political opponents but also the criminals. Numerous criminal gangs, in the hope of retaining their influence throughout the election campaign, cracked down on “tough” candidates, most of whom were supporters of AMLO. At least 145 politicians were killed during this time, including candidates for mayors of cities, governors, and deputies of the parliament. The murders of politicians did not stop even on the election day.

 

Promises

Struggling for power, López Obrador gave the people, perhaps, the most significant promise in the whole modern history of Mexico - to develop a program for almost the fourth historical transformation of the country, preceded by a decade-long war for independence from Spain (1810), the regaining of independence from the claims of France in 1867, and the revolution of 1910.

As a matter of fact, AMLO does not seem to have a clear agenda yet, but this does not prevent its supporters from believing that he is able to radically change the situation in the country.

For example, he promises to completely eradicate corruption, and not by any set of measures, but only by personal example, halving his salary and that of the government officials by refusing to reside in the presidential palace transferring it to the Arts Centre, selling presidential planes and helicopters, and also motor vehicles, etc. Corruption will be eradicated “because the president will not be corrupt”, López Obrador repeats all the time. “We cannot have a rich government and poor people. We are going to lower the salaries of those who are on top so that we can raise the salaries of those below.” However, sceptics doubt that officials who cut their salaries will stop taking bribes.

“I do not want to walk around surrounded by bodyguards. I want you, my people, to take care of me,” AMLO said once during a meeting with his supporters. “The act of absolute irresponsibility”, that’s how Jose Crespo of the Centre for Political Studies called AMLO’s statement. “This is just a demagogy to say that he is like everyone else and does not have any privileges, while he is not just an ordinary citizen but the head of state on whom depends the stability in the country and the rule of law.”

AMLO intends to reduce crime rates by 50% not by force but through dialogue, which he intends to involve even the Pope. For the sake of this dialogue, he is even ready to issue an amnesty for criminals who did not participate in terrorist acts, giving them a chance to start a new life. According to López Obrador, his predecessors chose the wrong strategy for combating crime, relying only on force methods. He believes that it is necessary to eradicate “the very reason that leads to insecurity and violence,” because “the most effective and humane way to combat these disasters is to combat inequality and poverty.”

His promises to provide farmers of central states with free fertilizers, cheap fuel, and to establish minimum price guarantees for producers of agricultural products was welcomed by population with a great enthusiasm. These actions, he believes, will help revive the economy of rural areas, open new jobs and stop emigration to the United States.

 

Is there a plan?

Many are sceptical of his plans to increase pension benefits for the elderly and disabled, scholarships for students, as well as the revival of health and education systems, as he expects to implement all these measures through savings from the victory over corruption and cutting government spending.

There are no other sources, in fact. López Obrador admits this fact too. Although the federal budget for 2019 will be adopted already during his term as president (December 15), and under the control of the parliament mainly controlled by the supporters of the National Regeneration Movement, it’s unlikely that it will be possible to change anything to fulfil election promises.

The Nieto administration has already assumed obligations on expenditures and incomes in 2019, plus the federal deficit increased dramatically in the first half of this year due to a broad and wasteful program on combatting poverty, which the ruling PRI initiated to win elections. Since López Obrador promised to reduce the budget deficit, it will be difficult for him to find money to finance his social programs. If he decides to increase budget expenditures, the national currency (peso) may react negatively, and this will entail uncontrolled inflation in the country.

International investors, who have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in Mexico in recent decades, are wary of the warnings of the president-elect. After all, from time to time, he declares that he wants to nationalize the vital branches of national economy, then he wishes to cancel unfavourable contracts or to adjust prices in order to prevent the impoverishment. Executives of international companies such as AT&T, Ford, GE, Boeing, and Delta, who invested heavily in Mexico, are now confused not knowing what awaits them next year.

Yet against all sceptical statements about the future presidency of López Obrador, there is one very reasonable argument - his successful experience in running Mexico City for five years, (2000-2005).

His innovative social and cultural programs, successful investments in the reconstruction of urban transport infrastructure and other projects have won him wide popularity in the country. Critics condemned his projects, calling them populist, but at the same time implemented them in other parts of the country.

In 2004, they tried to accuse López Obrador of a fabricated corruption case hoping that he could be eliminated as a rival in the upcoming 2006 presidential elections. But more than a million residents of Mexico City took to the streets to support their mayor. And they did it. All charges against Obrador were dropped.

Alas, beautiful ideas are not enough to eradicate corruption and defeat the mafia. The country needs strong state institutions, independent courts, and a vigilant media. The Morena Coalition, which, in fact, is a mixture of members of the Communist Party and the conservative evangelical party Social Encounter, leaders of trade unions, former members of RPI and PAN, and other disparate politicians, will first of all have to develop a clear action plan during the remaining months to be able to materialise the loud promises of their leader. The crowd's love is unstable, and the ‘superstar’ López Obrador can easily become a traitor of the nation, if his loud statements are just propaganda tricks.



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