29 March 2024

Friday, 15:08

END OF GAME?

Large external powers make serious changes in the course of the Syrian war

Author:

01.08.2018

Syria, which has survived many years of war, is very close to reach peace, as never before. The military operation for the liberation of the south-western provinces of Dara’a and El Quneitra, which were one of the epicentres of this bloody conflict, is coming to end.

 

Between Israel and Iran

Syrian government troops liberated the most important strategic points in Dara’a, the cities of Busra al-Sham, Nawa, and Mahajah. As a result, control over the route leading from Damascus to Jordan's capital, Amman, was restored, and the checkpoints on the Jordanian border restarted operations allowing the return of refugees to their homeland. In addition, in the central zone of the Golan Heights, the Syrian army occupied the cities of Nabe’ al-Sahr, Majdoliyah and Mashirfah, after which militants were given a chance to retreat to the northern zone near the border with Israel.

It is remarkable that Israel, which controls the western zone of the Golan Heights, announced the evacuation of 827 people (members of the White Helmets organization and their family members) from the southern regions of Syria just at the same time. White Helmets became known after they disseminated reports on the use of chemical weapons by government forces against civilians in a number of Syrian cities. However, not everyone in the world believed in the reliability of such information; in particular, Russia accused the White Helmets of spreading fabricated messages. As for the current situation, Israel later made it clear that the withdrawal of the members of this organization from Syria was carried out at the request of the United States, Canada and several European countries. Some of the rescued helmets were transported to the territory of Jordan, while Canada and Germany agreed to receive some members of the organisation.

Apparently, an agreement to save the organization, which is one of the mouthpieces of forces hostile to Syrian President Bashar Assad, was reached at the meeting of the U.S. and Russian presidents on July 16 in Helsinki. Meanwhile, this is only a small change taking place in the arena of the Syrian war under the influence of the largest external powers.

In particular, Israel, which despite military operations on cleaning up the south-west of Syria in the immediate vicinity of its borders, demonstrates a reserved position on ongoing events. There is every reason to believe that the reason for such restraint is the non-participation of the Iranian forces in the anti-terrorist offensives in Daraa and El Quneitra, carried out by the Syrian army with the support of Russia.

Over the past years, Israel has systematically bombed Syrian objects, in particular military airfields somehow connected with Iran. For example, on July 22, Israeli military aircraft bombed a Syrian military facility in the suburb of Masiaf in the province of Ham. According to media reports, four Israeli aircraft fired rockets at the research centre, where, according to Israeli intelligence, Iranian experts are developing Syrian nuclear reactor.

It is remarkable that Moscow, which reacts sharply to any manifestations of external aggression against Syria, does not criticize the actions of Israel. Apparently, Moscow simply ignores Israeli missile strikes on Syrian-Iranian targets being confident that they do not threaten the interests of Russia and its military on the Syrian territory. Moscow remained silent again, thus making it clear that it is concerned about the fulfilment of the main task, the restoration of full control of the Syrian government over the entire territory of the state. Currently, it is about the control over the south-west territories, which adjoin the borders of Israel and Jordan.

Israel uses all possible means to convince the international community that it will not remain silent unless Iran’s military presence at its borders is eliminated. This position is more apparent and urgent now when Tehran’s closest ally, Damascus, is close to complete and finally restore full control over the province of Dara’a bordering with Israel. Moscow's tolerant attitude toward the military activity of Israel shows that Russia is not very interested in the continued presence of Iranian troops on the Syrian territory given the successful resolution of military tasks related to the support of Syrian government forces and territorial integrity of the country. In other words, Moscow understands that the change of existing Syrian regime is not the ultimate goal of Israel, since it does not pose a direct threat to it. Iran, for which the confrontation with Israel is one of the pillars of its foreign policy, is a different issue though.

Encouraged by the fact that during military operations in the provinces of Dara’a and Kuneitra, Russian leader Vladimir Putin showed Assad the possibility of solving his problems without direct assistance from Iran, Israel was even more eager to persuade Moscow to exert pressure on Iran and ensure its military withdrawal from Syria. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said this unambiguously during his recent and the third visit to Russia.

However, Moscow realises its limited influence on Tehran and inability to guarantee the total withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria and is trying to push through an initiative to free at least the southern part of the country from the Iranian military and political influence. In any case, the Russian Foreign Minister proposed an option which stipulates that Iranians cannot approach the Syrian-Israeli border for more than 60 miles. Moscow hopes that this term is of fundamental importance for Israel, which wants to obtain guarantees that Iranians will not attack Israeli territory from Syria. In order to discuss this initiative, Lavrov and the Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, made a visit to Israel.

According to the Netanyahu administration, during the talks with Lavrov and Gerasimov, the prime minister called existing ties between the Jewish state and Russia "extremely important". However, according to Israeli media, the parties differed in their views on Iran. In fact, Deputy Director of the Department of Information and Press of the Russian Foreign Ministry Artem Kozhin called the reports about Mr. Netanyahu’s rejection of the Russian offer to allow Iranian forces to stay in Syria at a distance of not less than 100 km from the ceasefire line in the Golan Heights as ‘untrue’. The lack of official information on this issue from the Israeli side gives reason to believe that it is at the stage of elaboration, which, meanwhile, has every chance of a successful end. Especially in the light of the logical approach of the Syrian war to the long-awaited completion.

 

Is it Idlib on agenda?

The main question is the future of events after the cleansing of Dara’a. Apparently, with the elimination of the last hotbeds of terrorists in this province, as well as the part of the Golan Heights controlled by Damascus, the epicentre of the conflict will shift to the north-west of Syria, Idlib. It is rumoured that about 40,000 militants have accumulated in this province, which represent quite a serious force led by the rebels of Jabhat al-Nusra, which seized Idlib as early as in 2015. Under the terms of reconciliation agreements, Idlib is the province that militants from various radical groups, who were refused to surrender to the Syrian government troops in Aleppo, Homs and East Ghouta, moved along humanitarian corridors. Now, militants defeated in Dara’a and Quneitra move to this area.

Last year, Idlib was included in the northern de-escalation zone, which Turkey is responsible for. Together with Russia and Iran, Turkey is the guarantor of ceasefire in Syria, as agreed in Astana. At the end of July, a regular conference of participants of the Astana talks was held in Sochi, the results of which will largely influence the further course of the intra-Syrian settlement.

Just before the Sochi conference, information was leaked about Ankara's intention to put forward a new initiative for a peaceful settlement of the situation in Idlib. According to this plan, illegal military groups concentrated in the north-west of Syria should be disbanded and the control over the Idlib province should be transferred to the Syrian National Army created by the Turkish military. To implement this plan, a civil administration will be established in Idlib.

At the same time, Iran does not hide its interest in acting as guarantor in the upcoming negotiations between the official Damascus and Kurdish armed groups. It is possible that Tehran is trying to secure the Kurds' refusal to support Washington in exchange for giving them some degree of autonomy. Iranian side hopes that Kurds will adopt this proposal because they are clearly dissatisfied with the fact that the US, under Turkish influence, agreed to withdraw the Kurdish People's Self-Defence Forces from the Manbij area, and allowed Kurdish forces to be displaced from the territory of Afrin as a result of the successful operation of the Turkish troops, Olive branch.

The results of the Sochi conference will show how the guarantors of the truce, Russia, Turkey and Iran, are able to agree on latest initiatives. Without this agreement, it is difficult to imagine progress in negotiations between the forces in Syria, even though they are seemingly tired of the endless war.



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