29 March 2024

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GEOPOLITICAL ANOMALY

Contradictions between the US and Europe open new prospects for Iran

Author:

01.10.2018

Apparently, the recent terrorist attack in the Iranian city of Ahwaz exacerbated the overall situation in the Middle East. The relations between Iran and the US seriously deteriorated after President Donald Trump announced in May Washington's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCAP) on Iran, renewing old and imposing new sanctions against the Islamic Republic. According to observers, however, JCAP was just an excuse to put pressure on Iran due to its presence in Syria. After all, the expansion of Tehran’s influence in the Middle East is against the White House's position, especially under the current administration. Nevertheless, Tehran declares its readiness to resist the sanctions and suspects that Western countries intend to shatter the situation in Iran from the inside.

 

Tragic parade explosion

On Saturday, September 22, during a military parade on the occasion of the Sacred Defence Week, which is a series of events to commemorate Iran's victory in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, a group of armed people on motorcycles opened fire on the military and civilians watching the show killing 28 people and injuring more than 60.

According to the Iranian Armed Forces, all terrorists were eliminated. Later, the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence reported the arrest of 22 suspects involved in the attack and confiscation of explosives, weapons and communications equipment. The Al-Ahwaziya separatist group claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack. However, according to some sources, the ISIS terrorists might also be involved in the incident.

If the ISIS is known internationally, then mostly experts know about the Al-Ahwaziya. It is not so easy to understand the Arabic names of various groups gathered under a common name Al-Ahwaziya. It is even more difficult to understand how they differ from each other. In essence, this is a network of organisations fighting for the "independence" of Khuzestan Province of Iran (and parts of several other provinces with Arab population) from "Persian militarists" and trying to transform the Persian Gulf into an "Arabian Lake". These groups have repeatedly attacked Iranian state institutions and officials before.

Located in the south-west of Iran and bordering with Iraq, Khuzestan Province with its administrative centre of Ahwaz is mainly inhabited by Arabs. It was also one of the causes of the 1980-1988 war between the two countries. Obviously, geopolitical rivals of Iran cannot help but use the so-called "problem of the Arab people of al-Ahwaz" as part of the traditional Arab-Iranian rivalry. Moreover, this province has rich oil reserves, a well-developed metallurgical industry and agriculture. And the same time, it's densely populated and very problematic (some consider Ahwaz the most polluted city in the world).

A new wave of separatist movement in Khuzestan began in 2005 with a series of terrorist attacks just before the presidential elections in Iran. Iranians considered the Sunni separatist groups supported by foreign special services responsible for the attacks. The Tehran regime considers Al-Ahwaz a terrorist organisation, which is allegedly funded by Saudi Arabia and supported by some European countries. According to various sources, some members of the group live and are politically active in the UK, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Almost a year ago, one of the founders of the movement, Ahmad Mola Nissi, was shot dead by Iranian agents in the Netherlands.

It is not surprising that the Iranian authorities were unanimous in their reaction to the recent attack. Immediately after the event, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif announced that his government considers the "regional sponsors of terrorism and their American instructors" guilty of the terrorist act in Ahwaz. "Based on reports, this cowardly act was done by people who the Americans come to help when they are trapped in Syria and Iraq, and are paid by Saudi Arabia and the UAE," said Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, called Israel and the US responsible. Official representative of IRGC, General Ramazan Sharif claimed that Al-Ahwaz was supplied directly from the Saudi Arabia. Also, the Iranian Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassadors of the Netherlands, Denmark, and the temporary charge d'affaires of the United Kingdom to deliver a note of protest based on facts of "sheltering the members of terrorist groups" that Iran demanded to detain and deport in a legal manner but did not receive the approval of European authorities. "It is unacceptable that the members of this terrorist group are not included in the EU's list of terrorists unless they commit crimes in Europe," the representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced.

As expected, Iranian side also promised tough retaliatory measures. Iranian Defence Minister Amir Khatami promised that the answer "will be tough and unexpected." A crushing answer was promised by the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. "The attack clearly demonstrated that the enemies of Iran do not pursue any goals except to destroy Iran and the Iranians, even if this requires killing women, children, old and young people, workers and soldiers only because they are Iranians," the official website of the Iranian president says. Mr. Khatami also underlined that after the attack in Ahwaz, it became relevant to develop the defence potential of the country to protect the Iranian people.

 

Mogherini to the rescue

In the current situation, the US demands to replace the JCAP with a new document, which is going to cover not only the nuclear but also the ballistic program of Iran, seem obviously unrealistic. After all, the regional interests of the US and its allies, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other, are in direct contradiction, which can be explicitly seen in and around Syria. Thus, speaking in the US before a group of scientists, former government officials and journalists, Rouhani harshly and clearly stated that Iran would remain in Syria "until terrorism is completely eradicated there" and until the Syrian government needed Iran. "The US believe they have the right to be present in the region. But they do not recognise the same right for Iran," President Rouhani said. John Bolton's response rather short: "We're not going to leave [Syria] as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders and that includes Iranian proxies and militias." In fact, these two statements are all you need to know about the current level and terms of the American-Iranian competition.

At the same time, Americans have the most powerful tool for manipulation, the economy, which unlike nuclear weapons can be used freely. According to President Trump's personal lawyer Rudolf Giuliani, who has recently took part at an event held by the Organisation of Iranian-American Communities, the American sanctions on Iran are leading to a revolution, which will overthrow the current Iranian regime.

"It could be in a few days, months, a couple of years. But it's going to happen," the former mayor of New York told at the event in his own capacity though he is a Trump ally.

Part of the US sanctions package became effective on August 7, covering particularly the automotive sector, sale and purchase of gold and other metals. This immediately caused a drop in the rial's exchange rate and difficulties in the national economy. Restrictions on the export of hydrocarbon products will become effective on November 5, but many companies have already left Iran since the sanctions include punitive measures against the third country companies cooperating with Iranian partners. Exports of Iranian oil to Europe, the country's most important source of revenue, fell by more than a third between May and August. Analysts expect further supply cuts. At the same time, the Trump administration said it was working on alternative sources of oil to replace the Iranian one.

Remarkably though, the European partners of the US in fact stood up for Iran. At the 73rd session of the UN General Assembly the remaining signatory states to the nucler deal with Tehran, i.e. Russia, China, France, Germany and the UK, declared their commitment to the agreements. The head of the EU Foreign Affairs and Security Policy F. Mogherini emphasised that Iran has completely fulfilled its obligations taken under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is "the core component of the global non-proliferation regime". Moreover, the EU is developing a mechanism for protecting European companies from American sanctions in order to preserve the nuclear deal with Iran. Nevertheless, it is not clear how effective the measures taken by Brussels can be in slowing down the leave of European companies from Iran. This will also depend on the position of Chinese, Indian, and Turkish companies. Incidentally, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has announced that Turkey will continue trade operations with the Islamic Republic. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also noted that it was necessary to respect the legal rights of other countries to have economic relations and trade with Iran.

We can see that something that has previously seemed unthinkable is happening. Remarkably, the course of events made the US Secretary of State to admit that the European decision was "one of the most counterproductive measures for regional and global peace and security that can be imagined after 70 years of joint opposition to common opponents of the US and EU like Russia under the so-called transatlantic relations". However, the European media fully supports the Brussels decision and univocally reminds the US about its withdrawal from the trade and climate agreements, as well as the constant criticism of its European partners in NATO of stinginess. Brussels makes it clear that it no longer intends to pull chestnuts for Washington out of the Middle Eastern fire without any gratitude in return. The EU is not interested in the rise of oil prices at all, which will happen if, for example, Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz? Neither does Europe need a direct military conflict between the US and Iran or Iran and Israel. This may cause a real catastrophe for the entire region leading to a huge inflow of refugees that will make the Syrian conflict the least serious of problems. In her interview with CNN, Mogherini has explicitly mentioned these issues: "In times of conflict and crisis is there a better way than diplomacy and dialogue? Is war the best alternative?"

In this situation, Iran clearly has a field for manoeuvre in its confrontation with the US. We will soon see how this affects the situation in the region in general and in Syria and in Iran, in particular.



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