THE BREXIT MYSTERY

Recently we witnessed yet another significant scientific event — the first ever image of a black hole. The famous British journalist Eliot Higgins (bellingcat.com) even joked that now we know exactly how black holes look like, but we still have no clue of what Brexit should look like.

Indeed, almost three years after the referendum held on June 23, 2016, which supported UK's withdrawal from the European Union, disputes about when, how and whether the British need to leave the EU do not cease.

The difficult negotiation process itself finally ended with a draft agreement on withdrawal signed on November 18, 2018 by the heads of the 27 EU countries and the British Prime Minister Theresa May. However, the document has not been ratified yet by the British House of Commons (the lower house of parliament). In fact, the House failed to ratify the agreement both before the normal deadline (March 29, 2019) and extra time (April 12, 2019).

Deadlock situation

Although the members of the parliament rejected the agreement repeatedly (three times so far), they are apparently reluctant to leave the European Union without it either. They have even managed to pass a bill in record time (before April 8) prohibiting the withdrawal from the Union without an agreement. Remarkably, the parliament even tried to exclude the government from deciding on Brexit and developed as many as eight alternatives to it — membership in the Customs Union, the Norway-2 option (close economic and political ties with the EU), abolishing Brexit, a new referendum, etc. The parliament has submitted the proposals to the vote twice but failed.

Britain is in a stalemate, considering that the conservative government is not able to generate new proposals, and a considerable number of conservatives are voting against the only option for the agreement with the EU. The government is not all right either. Both Brexit supporters and opponents leave it almost every month. Twenty-nine members of the cabinet have left it over the past six months.

Eventually, there are people calling for the resignation of Theresa May claiming that she is unable to fulfil her duties in duly manner. But she does not intend to leave voluntarily, insisting that she gave the word to the British people to fulfil its will to leave the EU. Initially Mrs. May was asked to leave in a good way. Then, in December 2018, they announced a vote of no confidence to the May government, but the actual impeachment did not take place. According to British laws, this can be done only once a year. Then there was a rumour that some people are forcing the prime minister to leave the government. Even possible successors were named, including all Eurosceptics: Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and so on.

In such a difficult situation, the Prime Minister accepted the proposal of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbin to jointly discuss possible compromises. However, Mrs. May made this important step a bit late — literally a week before April 12, and therefore a couple of meetings did not lead to any result. On the contrary, trying to reach an agreement with the Labourites, who are looking for ways to cooperate more closely with the EU after the withdrawal, Mrs. May alienated even more fellow party members. Hence, it became clear that there was no point in rushing to vote for the agreement for the fourth time. Theresa May had to bow before to the EU requesting it for yet another delay.

Europe is not in rush

Meanwhile, the European Union considered the ongoing events in London and decided to secure itself. On March 29, EU announced that preparations for the possible withdrawal of Britain without an agreement were successfully completed.

Yet centrist European leaders are inclined to believe that there is a risk that Brexit without an agreement will exacerbate the economic and political crisis in Europe and ultimately strengthen the left and right populist forces throughout the continent. Nationalist-populist governments are already in power in Italy, Hungary and Poland and are part of a coalition government in Austria. The far right also showed good results in elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands and achieved success in Spain. EU leaders understand the situation perfectly well, and therefore do not push London for a quick decision.

This mood was clearly demonstrated during an emergency EU summit on April 10, dedicated exclusively to Brexit. 17 of the 27 leaders of European countries participating at the summit were ready to assign a 9-12 months period for Britain to determine its position on Brexit. In fact, only one person was against, and, oddly enough, it was French President Emmanuel Macron. He insisted that Britain give an answer no later than June 30th. It was exactly the same date that Theresa May was happy with. Both leaders have put high hopes with the parliamentary elections in the EU scheduled for May 23, 2019. But the motives of each of them were different.

British Prime Minister promised her country that she would not allow participation in the elections, as this could mean either a complete refusal to leave the union, or a long delay. She plans to make the agreement ratified through the parliament until May 22, hence skipping the EU parliamentary elections. If May does not succeed, then at least she has time until the end of June. And then the elected British parliamentarians simply will not take their seats when the new parliament convenes for the first meeting on July 2.

The essence of the arguments of the French leader was that the UK should not be allowed to vote at all, since it can harm the union from the inside, blocking certain decisions that the European Parliament will make. "Nothing should discredit the European project," he said.

As a result, the summit came to a compromise, according to which London is given time until October 31, but with the possibility of its prolongation, as noted by the President of the European Council Donald Tusk. Within this period, if the British Parliament adopts the agreement, Britain will leave the EU on the first day of the following month. For example, if the parliament ratifies the agreement on any day, say, in August, it enters into force on the first of September.

There are other conditions as well. "This decision [on extending the period provided for in Article 50(3) until 31 October 2019] shall cease to apply on 31 May 2019 in the event that the United Kingdom has not held elections to the European Parliament in accordance with applicable Union law and has not ratified the Withdrawal Agreement by 22 May 2019," the statement adopted at the summit indicates.

In other words, if the British Parliament adopts the withdrawal agreement with the EU before May 22, the UK will not take part in parliamentary elections, and from June 1, the process of withdrawal from the Union begins. If the agreement is not adopted until May 22, but the country refuses to participate in elections, then on June 1 London will have to leave the Union, and the extension period (until October 31) is cancelled.

In addition, if the British still take part in the elections, Emmanuel Macron insisted on the following requirement: "The United Kingdom shall facilitate the achievement of the Union’s tasks and refrain from any measure which could jeopardize the attainment of the Union’s objectives, in particular when participating in decision-making processes."

By the way, almost all the summit participants noted that they expect to finalise the Brexit issue with Theresa May as the head of the British government, since she can be trusted - she will try to fulfil her promises to the European Union, which is not true of her possible successors like Boris Johnson or Michael Gove.

Battle for premiership

According to public opinion polls, the ruling Conservative Party is losing its supporters. On May 2, local elections will be held in which the Tories may be defeated. They will also lose the elections to the European Parliament, not to mention that the elections will be a real fiasco for Tories, who promised in 2016 to make Brexit come true.

May's positions are not strong either. Although after the failure of the impeachment in December she has the formal right to remain in power for another year, but many doubt that her stay at Downing Street lasts until the next congress of the Conservative Party scheduled for October 2019.

Extending the decision on Brexit until October will certainly support May in her fight against the rivals within the party, mainly Eurosceptics, who may not have enough of these six months to replace her and still have time to reset the Brexit strategy. May, on the contrary, has enough time to negotiate with the Labour Party or Parliament.

Much will depend on whether May can make the withdrawal agreement through the parliament until May 22. Otherwise, the expected defeat in the local elections plus the EU parliamentary elections could cost her the loss of confidence from the overwhelming number of party members.

According to BBC, there are those who believe that May is not going to give up power. "She is so detached from reality that she will try to stay until December, no matter what. And during this time, she will destroy the Conservative Party," Financial Times quoted a Tory member.

Brexit has demonstrated that "European admiration of Britain as a symbol of a well-run parliamentary democracy is in tatters, while May's Conservative Party as well as those in the Labour Party seem to act in their own interests, rather than the needs of the country," a Belgian member of the EU parliament Philip Lamberts admitted.

That is exactly how the situation looks like today. Both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbin has a chance to change it.