WHO IS MISTER ZELENSKY?

The victory of Vladimir Zelensky in the Ukrainian presidential elections was not a surprise, but only few could imagine that he would defeat his rival with almost a three-fold margin (73.17% against 24.5% of the votes). Nor did anyone expect that Poroshenko admit his defeat so quickly. Now, when Poroshenko is gone, everyone is wondering what kind of a president Zelensky will be.

Result of errors

According to most experts, the defeat of Poroshenko, who held his election campaign under the slogan Faith. Tongue. Army, in fact, could be not so crushing. Perhaps the voters punished him this way for the low standard of living and making Ukraine the poorest country in Europe, for his ineffective methods to fight against corruption, inability to reach an agreement with Russia and stop the war in the east of the country. It turned out that Poroshenko's claimed achievements as a president — recognition of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church as an independent clerical body, abolition of Schengen visas for Ukrainian nationals, and the strengthening of the army — were insufficient measures for ordinary Ukrainian citizens. Some of his achievements, including the visas, in fact turned against the former president, as the majority of Ukrainians visit Europe not as tourists, but as cheap labour.

As a result, a complete newcomer came to power, a Russian-speaking Jewish-born, actor, producer and showman, 41-year-old Vladimir Zelensky, who was born in Krivoy Rog. He has took part in amateur performances since his school years, then became a member of the KVN team, followed by the creation of his own show, Vecherniy Kvartal, which quickly became the most popular show in Ukraine. Zelensky's Kvartal 95 Studio produced several films and TV series, including the super popular both in Ukraine and Russia Svaty and the sensational Servant of the People, where the main character, an ordinary school teacher Vasily Goloborodko, becomes a president. Therefore, Zelensky did not hold his election campaign in the traditional sense. Rather he continued acting in TV series and reality shows, where he showed his preparations for a possible presidency in Ukraine. For example, he simultaneously improved both his physical appearance and knowledge of the Ukrainian language.

Despite Zelensky’s efforts and a very impressive election result, most experts believe that the main reason for Zelensky’s success is, after all, public discontent with politics and Petro Poroshenko. Therefore, any candidate who won the second round of elections against the current president would win. During the debates with Poroshenko, Zelensky said: "I am a result of your mistakes, Petr Alekseevich". In fact, Zelensky's win was a vivid and convincing mixture of the virtual reality with the real world politics, sort of a digital-political flash mob, a digital Maidan, which produced a concrete result the first time in history and nationwide. Ukrainians who loved their screen hero and believed in him (voted for him) will now have to get to know him in real life. But the most important thing is that Zelensky will have to get to know himself.

Throughout the entire presidential campaign, Zelensky almost did not give any interviews, nor did he communicate with voters. In fact, he has said very little that can be considered specific. He promised to bring Ukraine closer to the EU and NATO, put an end to the war, fight corruption and oligarchs, and raise the living standards of the people. In other words, he promised to do everything that any candidate would have promised in his place, but which is very difficult to do and which Poroshenko did not succeed either. But there was no talk about a specific action plan.

Meanwhile, Zelensky and his team will have to deal with a very complicated legacy of his predecessor. First, Ukrainians still expect that he will address the economic situation when wages continue to fall, and prices for products and utilities to rise. At the same time, it will be necessary to deal with corruption and high taxes, as well as with the conflict in the east of the country. It is necessary to build a control system from scratch, to ensure the subordination of the army and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, where the new president will have to confront the scandalous figure of Arsen Avakov, who will probably be one of his main troublemakers.

Many of the bills that the new president is going to submit to the parliament are actually aimed at reformatting the authorities: expansion of the norms of direct democracy, lifting of parliamentary, judicial and presidential immunity, as well as the right to withdraw parliamentary immunity of deputies, and amending the impeachment procedure. Some of these measures suggest the amendment of the Constitution.

Above all, the Zelensky administration will also have to deal with parliamentary elections. He is unlikely to get everything done perfectly, which means that he will inevitably lose his support. If, according to numerous local and foreign experts, the votes for Zelensky are mostly votes against Poroshenko, then it will be very difficult to hold such voters as soon as their source of irritation disappears. At the same time, the power elites will most certainly continue internal fight with each other.

It's only the beginning

Apparently, the whole political image and the final configuration of power in Ukraine will become clear only after the parliamentary elections scheduled for October. As a result of elections to the Verkhovna Rada, a new ruling coalition and a new prime minister will appear.

After all, Zelensky needs to create a really strong political force on the basis of his party, the Servant of the People, without which he will not be considered seriously. And to concentrate substantial power in his own hands, this political force will have to establish power as a parliamentary majority.

Thus, Poroshenko has already announced the program of his party Petro Poroshenko’s Bloc for the upcoming parliamentary elections. In his recent address, Poroshenko admitted his defeat at the elections, but promised that he will never give up and remain in politics in order to "defend the achievements of his presidency": Ukraine’s integration into the EU and NATO, recognition of the independence of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, visa-free regime, as well as the reforms in education (protection of the Ukrainian language) and medicine. But Yulia Tymoshenko looks like the most promising force. The former premier took third place in the first round of the presidential elections. Incidentally, she demands the dissolution of the Ukrainian government even before autumn. "Is it worth enduring the existing government for half a year? I do not think that it was the reason why the people gave 75% of votes for the changes... Therefore, if this parliament has even a drop of conscience left, it is necessary to use our chance to form a new government," the leader of Batkivshchyna Party believes. So, having lost the presidential election, Tymoshenko is again at the start of the struggle for power in Ukraine. By the way, early elections are more than profitable for Zelensky, because his party is associated only with his victorious name, which has not yet been spoiled by any mistakes or failures. They say that the leader of the music band Okean Elzy, Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, may bring his own party on stage. He is also not connected with politics and is a popular figure in Ukraine.

Moscow's precautionary move

What about the relations between Kiev and Moscow? Immediately after the announcement of results of the elections, the presidents of the United States, France, Poland, the NATO Secretary General, the EU president, the British prime minister, and the German chancellor (she even invited Zelensky to pay a visit to Berlin) congratulated the newly elect president of Ukraine. However, the Kremlin was not in a hurry with a congratulatory message. A spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that congratulations were premature, because "one should be judged by specific deeds." Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev wrote on his Facebook account that he did not experience "any illusions" about the victory of Zelensky, and wished the new Ukrainian leadership sanity. On the next day, April 24, Vladimir Putin issued a decree on a simplified procedure for obtaining Russian citizenship for residents of certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine. Now the decision on issuing passports to the residents of these regions must be made within three months.

Although the Russian side justifies the measure solely by humanitarian intentions, it caused a squall of indignation in Kiev. In response, Zelensky’s headquarters stated that with this decision Russia "admitted its responsibility as an occupying state" and moved away from the main goal — ensuring cease-fire in the region. Ukraine also "relies on the support of the international community in protecting the interests and rights and freedoms of Ukrainian citizens in the temporarily occupied territories and increasing diplomatic and sanction pressure on the Russian Federation." EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini immediately stated that "Moscow’s decision to simplify the granting of Russian citizenship to Donbas residents is an encroachment on the sovereignty of Ukraine." The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine urged residents of the unrecognized DPR and LNR not to accept new passports. In turn, the current president Poroshenko said that the Kremlin’s decision was a step towards legitimising Russia's military presence. Most experts, both in Russia itself and in Ukraine, agree that, on the part of the decree on issuing passports, it looks like a warning demonstration of power. If we consider the existing difficult situation around gas contracts between Naftogaz and Gazprom, then everything looks like the second half of the year will not be easy for Ukrainian-Russian relations.

Given all internal and external circumstances, Ukraine is apparently facing another crucial moment of its history. If Zelensky manages to create a balance between the presidential power, the parliament and the security forces, if he succeeds in reaching an agreement with Russia and fulfilling at least part of his promises, we can say Ukraine will enter a new, finally more stable and peaceful stage of its development.