MEDITERRANEAN EXAM

The parties to the intra-Libyan conflict have held ceasefire negotiations in Moscow thanks to joint efforts of the presidents of Russia and Turkey, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Negotiations of the Russian and Turkish ministers of foreign affairs and defense with the representatives of conflicting parties of Libya lasted more than six hours. Participants discussed the possibility of signing a ceasefire agreement between the Libyan National Accord Government led by Fayez Al-Sarraj and the head of the Libyan National Army, Field-Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Although the parties could not come to an agreement, a fragile hope that the agreement would be signed still remained.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said progress has been made, as Al-Sarraj and a Libyan parliament representative in the east of the country have signed a settlement document, but Haftar took time until the morning of January 14.

Meanwhile, one of the most serious factors that sparked hope for a long-awaited peace and stability in this North African country, which has been in a state of chaos and civil war for nine years, was the decision of Turkey to send its troops to help the internationally recognised government of Libya.

Haftar vs al-Sarraj

Almost nine years have passed since the overthrow and murder of Muammar Gaddafi. Life in Libya is still abnormal. In a country covered by civil war, dual power reigns. The capital of Tripoli, as well as the surrounding areas are ruled by the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Fayez al-Sarraj. The east of the country is controlled by the parliament sitting in Tobruk and the Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. Since April 2019, Haftar, who has actually established the power in most of the country, has launched an offensive against Tripoli under the slogan of "cleansing the city of terrorists". However, his attempts have so far been in vain.

Recently, LNA achieved an important victory seizing Sirte, one of the key cities in Libya, which at one time was the stronghold of Gaddafi, and then the IS terrorist group. Haftar has knocked out GNA forces from Sirte, which, according to military experts, will open up to him broader strategic opportunities for a decisive attack on Tripoli.

Despite the UN support to the process of forming GNA and the Sarajah government to be the only legitimate authority in Libya, the attitude of interested external forces to GNA is ambiguous. Thus, the government of al-Saraj is supported, in particular, by Turkey, Qatar and Italy, while the Tobruk parliament and Field Marshal Haftar are supported by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, France, Russia and even the U.S., although the latter seems worried about the possibility of Russia using the conflict in Libya in its own interests. That is why the U.S. has recently taken a more neutral position and calls on Haftar to stop the attack on Tripoli.

Such an obvious discrepancy in the positions of influential world players toward the Libyan political forces is because many are pushed away by the Islamist character of the GNA, while the opposing force looks promising in terms of establishing stability in the country. Many consider Haftar an authoritarian military leader, a traditional political figure for many Arab countries, able to restore order in the state and keep it under control. But, on the other hand, all external players - both those who support GNA as an internationally recognised power in Libya, and those who sympathise with Field Marshal Haftar - are driven by their own geopolitical interests, based primarily on the strategic importance of Libya, which has huge reserves of oil and gas.

Erdogan goes to rescue GNA

Regarding the motives of Turkey, obviously, the ideological and political solidarity of President Recep Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) with the Islamic Liberal Democratic Party plays an instrumental role. This also explains why the Turkish leadership supports the moderate Islamist opposition in Syria and ceased relations with Egypt after the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood led by Mohammed Mursi and the assumption of power by General al-Sisi in Egypt. At the same time, there are specific interests of Ankara, which are focused on GNA.

First, Ankara has ambitions to consolidate its traditional influence in the Mediterranean Sea and in the north of Africa. Apparently, the government of al-Sarraj also supports Turkish ambitions. In this context, Turkey, as well as other interested powers, intend to receive privileges in the production and processing of Libyan hydrocarbons. It is therefore worth mentioning the recently signed agreement between Ankara and Tripoli on the delimitation of marine economic zones. In accordance with the document, Turkey considers its exclusive economic zone the space of the Eastern Mediterranean right up to the exclusive economic zone of Libya. Erdogan announced the readiness of Turkey and Libya to begin a joint exploration of oil and gas reserves in the Mediterranean Sea.

Meanwhile, the plans of Israel, Greece and Cyprus, which are against the interests of Turkey in the Mediterranean, also intensify the cooperation between Ankara and Tripoli in the energy sector. Soon after the conclusion of the Turkish-Libyan agreement, the above-mentioned three countries signed an agreement on the construction of the EastMed gas pipeline for the deliveries of natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe. Ankara immediately made it clear that any actions related to the construction of EastMed are possible only with the approval of the Turkish side.

As for the military cooperation of Turkey with the government of al-Sarraj, Ankara has long been providing assistance to the GNA in this area. However, Ankara and Tripoli have initiated a new phase of strategic interaction amid the attacks of the Haftar army on the Libyan capital. At the end of December 2019, GNA officially requested Turkey to provide military assistance to Libya "on land, on water and in the air." Erdogan immediately stated that Turkey would provide the Libyan government recognised by the international community with "all kinds of support." On January 2, the Turkish parliament approved the dispatch of Turkish troops to Libya. According to media reports, Turkish troops immediately entered the territory of Libya.

Even the negative reaction of the largest countries and international organizations did not stop Ankara. In particular, UN, U.S., EU and Egypt announced the unacceptability of Turkey’s military intervention in the Libyan conflict. Russian Foreign Ministry regarded the actions of Turkey as an attempt to "legalise its military support for the government in Tripoli in its confrontation with the Libyan national army of Haftar, including through an open violation of the UN arms embargo." However, it is worth mentioning specifically about the Russian-Turkish nuances of the Libyan policy.

Truce or war?

While Turkey openly expresses its support for GNA, Russia takes no less significant actions to support Field Marshal Haftar, albeit unofficially. In particular, the world media reports about the fighters of the Russian unofficial armed group Wagner inside LNA. Turkish President Erdogan also openly criticised Wagner's activities in Libya.

Obviously, Russia and Turkey are patronising different sides of the intra-Libyan confrontation. Unlike Ankara, Moscow hopes for the victory of Haftar in the civil war. Why? Because, first, Russia finds it inappropriate (and, possibly, impossible) to support the Islamist GNA. Secondly, the Haftar army controls large oil fields in Libya. In particular, the Ghadames field, which is actively developed by the Russian company Tatneft.

However, Turkey and Russia, the powers that aim to strengthen their influence in the Middle East, are not interested in any contradiction between them in Libya to protect their bilateral strategic cooperation. This was clearly demonstrated during the recent visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Istanbul to commission the Turkish Stream gas pipeline. Erdogan and Putin discussed a number of important international problems, including, of course, Libya. Strategic Step in the Equation of the Eastern Mediterranean: Turkey-Libya Agreement — a book revealing Ankara's position on regional issues that Erdogan presented to his Russian colleague was not the only remarkable events that took place in Istanbul during Putin's visit. The main thing is that the parties agreed to achieve a settlement of the Libyan crisis by joint efforts.

Erdogan and Putin called on the fighting forces in Libya to cease hostilities from 00:00 on January 12, 2020, "declare a sustainable ceasefire, backed by the necessary measures" to normalise the daily life of Tripoli and other cities, and immediately sit down at the negotiating table. As stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, "unified position on the Libyan settlement was agreed upon in accordance with the decisions of the UN Security Council," "the presidents of Russia and Turkey support an inclusive process to involve all the Libyan parties in it, including Libya's neighbours."

There is a hope that Moscow and Ankara will bring the Libyan crisis closer together. This hope is based on the successful cooperation between Russia and Turkey in dealing with the Syrian crisis, despite certain disagreements. Both countries could find common ground and contributed to the adoption of cardinal decisions to secure peace in Syria.

The GNA government led by al-Sarraj immediately approved the Russian-Turkish proposal for a ceasefire in Libya. In the initial statement, LNA welcomed the initiative of the president of a "friendly state", Vladimir Putin, to achieve stability in Libya, but stated its willingness to continue the fight against the "terrorist groups" that had captured Tripoli with the help of "some states and governments". Haftar’s position was quite understandable because of his military success in the last few weeks. However, his position not only put off the negotiating perspective, but also threatened to aggravate the situation in Libya, taking into account the military steps of Turkey. It was the last factor - the ongoing pressure from Ankara - that influenced the LNA decision to announce ceasefire on January 12.

According to Turkish media, the Haftar army's decision came shortly after the telephone conversations of Recep Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. There is no doubt that the change in Haftar's position was also facilitated by the withdrawal of the so-called "Wagner mercenaries" from the front line, an event that should be considered one of the key manifestations of Russian-Turkish interaction in Libya.

Finally, on January 13, all interested participants in the Libyan truce gathered in Moscow, which at that time was a big step forward.

Al-Sarraj's call on his compatriots voiced before the Moscow meeting "to turn the page of the past, abandon disagreements and close ranks in order to move towards stability and peace" is also a significant event

It is expected that the Moscow summit mediated by Moscow and Ankara will open the way to a long-term political settlement of the Libyan crisis. The failure of the ceasefire in no way meets the interests of either the Libyans or the guarantors of the agreement - Turkey and Russia. This is especially true for Turkey, which, with such a bold decision to send troops to Libya, almost turned the tide of events in Libya.

The situation remains tense in the east. Turkey, including its Mediterranean geopolitical aspirations, remains at the forefront of a large regional confrontation.