28 March 2024

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NOT GETTING ANY BETTER COME AT ONCE

How justified is the opening of borders and tourist infrastructure during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic?

Author:

15.07.2020

A recent report published by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicates that the global tourism sector will lose at least $1.2 trillion, or 1.5% of global GDP, after almost four months of stagnation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, the volume of losses can rise to $2.2 trillion, if tourism restrictions last for eight months. In the worst case, this indicator can hit $3.3 trillion.

UNCTAD believes that popular European and North American destinations such as France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the US will lose billions of dollars due to a sharp drop in international tourism, while in the developing countries, such as Jamaica and Thailand, the losses will the largest - at least 9-11% of GDP.

According to experts, along with significant impediment of the recovery in the tourist sector, ongoing travel restrictions in many countries and a decline in incomes, a loss of every million dollars in tourism sector will incur $2-3 million in losses for the entire economy. Without the help of the state, the tourism industry (businesses, hotels, airlines) may face bankruptcy.

Apparently, to minimise losses of the tourism sector and the economy as a whole, most EU member states have resumed the free movement of people within the EU and the Schengen area since June 15. Restrictions introduced back in March were lifted for all EU states except Sweden. Unfavourable epidemiological situation in Sweden does not meet the EU criteria for opening internal borders with this country.

After the opening of internal borders, the EU published a list of countries which the EU will open external borders since July 1. The list includes Algeria, Australia, Canada, Georgia, Japan, Montenegro, New Zealand, South Korea, Thailand, etc. China is one of the countries included in the list too, albeit subject to certain formalities. The list, which will be reviewed every two weeks, does not include the US, Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Azerbaijan yet.

And it is not about whether the EU decision is objective in terms of opening the borders with a particular country, but how expedient such a move was given the difficult epidemiological situation in the world and the real threat of the second wave of pandemic.

 

Disappointing statistics

The total number of SARS-CoV-2 cases around the world has exceeded 12 million people. Yet there is no evidence that the daily increase in cases decreases in the near future. The US, Brazil, Russia and India are still on the top of the most infected countries.

American epidemiologists urge the authorities to take measures to contain the virus. US chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci warned that if no deterrence mechanism is found, the epidemic will become catastrophic.

In turn, the UN Security Council adopted the first resolution since the pandemic, which called on all conflicting parties in the world to declare a ceasefire for at least three months to prevent the further spread of virus. World Health Organization (WHO) warned that the countries of the Middle East have exhausted all their capabilities in the fight against the pandemic. WHO believes that in conflict zones such as Syria and Yemen, doctors simply do not have the ability to control the spread of the disease.

Even in Europe, in particular in the UK, France and Germany, the authorities warn of the threat of a second wave of the pandemic. Available data indicate that local outbreaks become more likely, and the threat of the second wave is real, according to an article published in The BMJ. This can actually be considered a response to the relaxation of lockdown restrictions since July 4 in the UK, where museums, cinemas, restaurants, bars and hotels were opened to visitors.

The German Health Minister, Jens Spahn, made an almost identical statement, saying that a threat of the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pathogen was due to local outbreaks. Lifting off lockdown in the districts of Gütersloh and Warendorf in the west of the country due to the outbreak of coronavirus at the Tönnies slaughterhouse with more than 1,550 of approximately 7,000 employees infected.

France is also waiting for the second wave of the epidemic on the eve of the next academic year. French authorities recommend companies and institutions stock up on masks for at least ten weeks. In the first decade of July, Spanish regions of Galicia and Catalonia re-enabled restrictive measures due to a significant increase in new cases of infection.

Situation in Israel is not easy either. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced an emergency amid a sharp increase in new infections: “We are in the midst of a new wave of coronavirus. This is a very strong outbreak all over the world and in our country,” Netanyahu said after the daily rate of new cases in July first exceeded 1,000, causing the relevance of re-introduction of restrictions.

The list of countries where the situation with the spread of pandemic remains difficult still includes Brazil, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Australia, and Indonesia...

 

Situation in and around Azerbaijan

Situation in Azerbaijan and the neighbouring countries, with the exception of Georgia, is also difficult. After some lockdown relief in June, the daily number of cases in Azerbaijan exceeded 500. The quarantine was reintroduced, and banning the operation of hotels, restaurants, and shopping centres in the country. Restrictions on departures from and arrival to Azerbaijan by land and air, with the exception of cargo and charter flights, remain effective until August 1. All nationals arriving to the country on charters are tested for symptoms at the border. In case of suspicion, the passengers, regardless of nationality and purpose of travel, are locked down for two weeks at specialised medical facilities.

Authorities may reconsider the opening of international flights in Azerbaijan though, such as charter flights with other countries, including the pilot project Baku-Istanbul-Baku.

The recent video conference of the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, with the Secretary General of the World Tourism Organization (WTO) Zurab Pololikashvili is worth consideration. Mr. Pololikashvili said that the borders of almost 150 countries remain closed, and the tourism sector goes through an unprecedented crisis, having lost approximately $1.5 trillion until now. He advised investing in regional tourism, given that the local tourism industry will be in demand during the summer period.

President Aliyev said that Azerbaijan’s borders are open only for the reception of Azerbaijani nationals and for the departure of foreign nationals from Azerbaijan. “Of course, our priorities are the safety, health and life of people. Since the virus has been brought to Azerbaijan from outside, we believe that currently the closure of borders is the only right way. But we also hope that with the decline of the pandemic, and based on the recommendations of the WHO, we will open the borders. But it is hard to predict when this happens,” Mr. Aliyev said.

As for neighbouring countries, the most difficult situation is in Russia, which is the third country in the global list of SARS-CoV-2 cases along with India. Despite a possibility of resuming international flights from Russia in July, the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) prohibited the entry of foreign nationals to the country until July 31.

Iran – another neighbour of Azerbaijan – registered the highest mortality rate from COVID-19 in the region with about 12,000 deaths. As of the first decade of July, Iran is ranked the 11th country in terms of the number of infected people, while Turkey is ranked the 14th.

Despite the statistics, Turkish authorities claim that they have practically regained control over the tourism and medical sectors of the country. Thus, it is reported that in June, Turkey opened borders to most countries and continues to open flights systematically. Incoming nationals will not have to show test results upon arrival to Turkish airports, but in case of high temperature, they will have to pass a free test. Those who need to take a test to return home will be able to take the test for €15 at Turkish airports. The opening of borders does not mean that citizens of all countries, including Azerbaijan, can freely go on holiday to Turkey. Many countries still have strict lockdown regime with their borders closed.

As of the first half of July, the situation with the pandemic is not good in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan, which also tightened the lockdown measures. In Armenia, the situation remains difficult too, with hundreds of cases detected daily (700 and more) and the total number of cases exceeding 30,000. By the way, the population of the country is less than 3 million.

Although the situation in Georgia is much better than in other countries of the region, Tbilisi does not plan to open land borders with neighbouring states in the near future. At the same time, the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is conducting bilateral negotiations with the EU countries on the opening of direct flights.

 

Arguments

In some countries, which resume economic activities, new outbreaks of coronavirus have been recorded. “Although many countries have made some progress, the global pandemic is actually accelerating,” WHO Secretary General Tedros Gebreyesus said.

Mr. Gebreyesus believes that the difficult situation with the pandemic concerns the whole world, and will continue for a long time. “The critical question that all countries will face in the coming months is how to live with this virus,” Gebreyesus concluded.

 WHO Regional Director for Europe, Hans H. P. Kluge, warned back in June that the second wave of the pandemic could be more damaging if precautionary measures were not taken. “as more and more countries relax restrictions, there is a clear threat that COVID-19 infections may surge. If those surges are not properly managed, then a second wave could happen and could be extremely destructive,” Kluge said. And he is right. After all, the situation now is no better than at the beginning of the year. As before, there is no vaccine or a clear method of treatment for coronavirus. Therefore, Mr. Kluge considers it important to gradually and carefully remove restrictions and conduct ongoing monitoring of the situation.

PhD. Yazgul Abdiyeva, MD says many countries have a surge in the number of cases after the first phase of quarantine relief. Since the relief contributes to a new wave of infection, many countries are forced to tighten the quarantine measures again.

In her interview with Trend, Abdiyeva said that the extension of quarantine in Azerbaijan is the right step, which can help stop the infection. “However, a positive outcome of our common fight against coronavirus now depends not only on the authorities, including the Operational Headquarters under the Cabinet of Ministers, but also on the responsibility of our society as a whole and every citizen, in particular. The most relevant issue for all of us today is the high rate of cases. Unfortunately, despite repeated warnings, we can see that not all people wear masks in public transport, in closed rooms. They still continue to visit relatives and neighbours infected with the virus, participate in funerals and organise various meetings. If people do not follow the rules, they will not be able to achieve the desired result,” Abdiyeva said.

Chairman of Board of the Association of Hotels and Restaurants of Azerbaijan, Samir Dubendi, believes that because of the strict lockdown regime, Azerbaijan’s tourism industry is in a bad state: “Travel agencies, hotels, restaurants and other facilities cannot endure such a long lockdown. I think there are too many mistakes and rash decisions in the fight against the virus. For example, the authorities allowed opening large shopping centres but at same time, they banned domestic tourism and catering services. Why did we adopt a number of guidelines then?”

In his interview with R+, Mr. Dubendi supported the decision on lockdown on the Azerbaijani borders, but believes that “domestic tourism should have been allowed from the very beginning of the summer season”. “State Agency for Food Safety and State Agency for Tourism have developed guidelines that still remain on paper. On the other hand, in the short period of the opening of public catering, some facilities complied with instructions, while others grossly violated them. Some had less customers by setting up tables in line with the social distancing rules, while others accepted customers in groups without observing the rules set in the guidelines. As a result, law-abiding facilities suffered the re-introduction of lockdown as well. But there were no monitoring and other checks in place,” Dubendi said. He believes it is necessary to open domestic tourism, taking into account strict compliance with and control over the requirements of the developed guidelines. “People need to go out in nature more. This is about recreation in general, as well as the restoration of the psychological state of people,” Samir Dubendi said.

There are many supporters and critics of lifting restrictions and opening borders. The lesson that we learned from the experience of the past few months is that it may be dangerous to play with such a persistent and extremely tenacious virus as COVID-19. Expert recommendations should not be neglected and any steps should be taken carefully.



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