WHO IS FIRST?

Situation around Iran's nuclear program remains one of the key topics of the global political agenda. Although the new American administration does not hide its interest in restoring the international nuclear deal with Iran, there has been no real progress in this direction so far. General geopolitical situation in the Middle East does not contribute to the improvement of the dialogue between Tehran and Washington, and more broadly – with the entire West.

Who will be the first to step back?

The US President Joe Biden decided to extend the sanctions against Iran for another year. This primarily concerns the restrictions imposed on Iran because of its nuclear, ballistic missile and military programs. In particular, they ban the supply of alloys of aluminum, copper and some types of steel to Iran, as well as strategically important electronic products.

Iran does not remain silent in this sanctions war either. For example, last year Tehran accused some top officials of the previous US administration of supporting terrorism, including their involvement in the assassination of General Qasem Soleimani and nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

However, the damage caused by American sanctions is certainly much more tangible than the Iranian embargo. President Hasan Rouhani said that direct damage to Iran from US sanctions over the past three years has exceeded $200 billion. Nevertheless, Tehran does not demand compensation for damage as a condition for the US to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program.

Actually, the further course of events around the so-called Iranian issue depends on whether the JCPOA will be further implemented or eventually collapse. The first major factor that undermined the implementation of the deal approved by the six intermediaries (USA, Russia, China, UK, France, Germany) and Iran in July 2015 came from the then US President Donald Trump in May 2018. According to the deal, it was planned to lift off international economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran’s limiting its nuclear program. However, not only did Washington unilaterally withdraw from the deal, but the Trump administration also restored sanctions against Tehran, including on the export of Iranian oil. A year later, in response to unilateral actions of Americans, Iran announced the suspension of some of its obligations under the JCPOA related to uranium enrichment.

In other words, JCPOA faces a real threat of failure. Hopes to revive the deal came with Trump's defeat in the 2020 presidential election and the arrival of Joe Biden. The new American leader declared the restoration of previous agreements on the Iranian nuclear program one of the main priorities of his foreign policy. However, the first steps in this direction, or rather the existing international atmosphere, showed how difficult it will be to implement the task.

Now it becomes obvious that Washington is ready to rejoin the deal only if Tehran refrains from actions declared in response to the unilateral withdrawal of the previous US administration from the nuclear deal. The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the fate of further bilateral contacts will depend on Iran's reaction. Moreover, although Washington, in principle, expresses its consent to a diplomatic solution of the issue, it also makes it clear that its "patience has limits." Apparently, the development of events after Washington's declared readiness to join the new round of negotiations between the six states and Iran will be the very test of American patience. Negotiations were initiated by the European Union.

Obviously, Iran has its own reasons not to succumb to the American patience. Iranian authorities make it clear that they are not going to stop enriching uranium until the US does not correct its one-sided "mistake". On February 23, Iran restricted the inspection of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Restriction applies to IAEA's access to cameras at Iranian nuclear facilities: footage will be stored for another three months, after which it will be erased if the US does not return to the nuclear deal.

Back in January 2021, Iran's Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna Kazem Garib Abadi officially announced that Tehran had launched research work on the production of metallic uranium. IAEA soon confirmed the statement. UK, France and Germany expressed general concern over the production of metallic uranium by Iran in violation of the JCPOA. Because Iran, as stated in the joint statement of the European troika, has undertaken a commitment "not to produce, acquire, conduct research and development in uranium metallurgy" for 15 years.

However, Tehran insists that a return to the JCPOA and commitment to the terms of the deal is possible only if all parties, including the US, begin to fulfil their obligations. Therefore, Iran refused the invitation of the EU and the US to start direct negotiations on the nuclear program. Tehran believes that the US does not have the right to join in the negotiations until the sanctions against Tehran, imposed contrary to the terms of the JCPOA, are lifted.

During a telephone conversation with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, Iranian President Rouhani openly stated that "the nuclear deal is not subject to re-negotiation and the only way to save it is the lifting of US sanctions." As for Iran's refusal to fulfil its obligations under the deal, Tehran justifies its steps viewing them as "a consequence of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and Europe's failure to fulfil its promises." The latter means, first of all, the inability or unwillingness of European states to oppose Washington's anti-Iranian sanctions policy.

Therefore, the US can only express its disappointment with Tehran's refusal to conduct direct diplomatic contacts on nuclear issues. However, this does not mean that Washington is not going to take any measures to contain Iran. It is clear that the US will continue its strategy of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power. While Tehran assures the international community that its nuclear program is exclusively peaceful, for the US and its allies, the task of ensuring that Iran indeed never becomes the owner of nuclear weapons is more than just a target. It is also a factor that may contribute to geopolitical crushing of the main enemy of the West in the Middle East.

Emotions run high

The Iranian issue, which in fact is much broader than just the problem around Tehran's nuclear program, remains one of the most important components of the great Middle East geopolitics. Remarkably, even Iran’s refusal to get involved in negotiations with the US through the mediation of the EU took place after the US airstrikes against pro-Iranian military groups in Syria. Washington explained the offensive by the urgency to eliminate facilities, which were planning to attack American bases in Iraq.

Thus, Washington confirmed that not only Tehran's nuclear program, but also the activities of the pro-Iranian "resistance forces" in a number of regional countries, namely Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, are the cornerstone targets of the US in the fight against the ‘threats’ of the Islamic Republic on American interests. Air strikes on Iranian-backed forces in Syria have once again demonstrated the readiness of the US to resolve the Iranian issue by force, including the nuclear component in the future.

Benny Gantz, Defense Minister of Israel, the closest ally of the US in the region, announced "renewed plans to strike Iranian nuclear facilities”. In response, Tehran threatened Israel with attacks on Tel Aviv and Haifa in the event of strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. All this militant rhetoric testifies to the serious danger that threatens the region, given that the opponents of the Islamic Republic consider any means to solve the Iranian issue once and forever.

IAEA has also become a platform for the geopolitical struggle with Iran. At the session of the IAEA Board of Governors held in Vienna in early March, the adoption of a new resolution on Iran and its activities in the nuclear sphere was avoided. UK, France and Germany at the last moment decided to refrain from promoting another anti-Iranian document, which could have a negative impact on the prospect of resuming the negotiation process. In addition, we can obviously see the wait-and-see attitude of the European negotiators before the Biden administration starts doing something in this direction. Joint efforts of Russia and China to curb the offensive American approach to solve the Iranian problem is also in Iran's interests.

However, everything will depend primarily on the readiness of Washington or Tehran to take the first, compromise step in order to prevent such a turn of events that would jeopardize the interests of the regional and global peace.