29 March 2024

Friday, 16:22

"REVOLUTION HAS A BEGINNING, BUT NO END!"

Ongoing revanchist protests can cost Armenia a lot of blood

Author:

15.05.2022

Perhaps the elder generation of our readers still remember the Soviet hit song by Vano Muradeli: "Revolution has a beginning, but no end!" Only later this line has become a catch phrase first in the Soviet and then in post-Soviet urban folklore.

Apparently, this line most accurately describes the current situation in Armenia. For many days the opponents of the current Prime Minister have been rallying there trying to ‘beat the enemy with his own weapon’, or using against Nikol Pashinyan his own method of revolutionary usurpation of power. Street rallies, marches, tents on the square, and an attempt to organise a walking march from Gyumri to Yerevan bring back memories from the recent past. The only things missing are kebab and drums. Protesters are led by Robert Kocharyan and Artur Vanetsyan with their political ally being Serzh Sargsyan. Most importantly, the rallies are still held under the slogans of revenge.

 

Anatomy of revenge

The development of events in Armenia can equally be described as paradoxical and predictable. On the one hand, the slogans of revenge, the return of lands lost during the war and revenge for humiliation should impress the public opinion. After all, the hatred towards neighbours and longing for ‘lost lands’ have been cultivated in Armenia for decades and generations. In fact, experts have predicted the rise of revanchist sentiments in Armenia after the defeat in the 44-day war and signing of the November 10, 2020 trilateral statement. The loss of territories that the Armenian population had considered its own was a priori a strong shock. Just before the war, most Armenian nationals believed that Armenia had the strongest army in the region.

Experts believe that Yerevan has launched, albeit hardly intentionally, military PR during the 44-day war based on the idea of revenge too. During these days the Armenian propaganda was constantly talking about the success of the Armenian army, the defeat of Azerbaijanis, etc. The end of this story is well known - the surrender instrument that Pashinyan had to sign under the risk of total defeat.

In the year and a half since the war, there have been at least three attempts at revenge in Armenia. In March 2021, the then Chief of Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces, General Onik Gasparyan, demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan responded by dismissing Gasparyan himself. However, the latter refused to resign. Many experts stocked some popcorn in anticipation of a real military rebellion and the first real military coup in the post-Soviet republics. But Gasparyan's mutiny ended with his resignation. In June 2021, Pashinyan was pushed into early elections. However, contrary to all predictions, not only did he retain power, but his Civic Agreement bloc defeated the opponents with a convincing victory.

It seems that Robert Kocharyan, Artur Vanetsian, Serzh Sargsyan, Dashnak leader Ishkhan Saghatelyan, etc. should not even try to attack Pashinyan under these conditions. But...

 

Peace on Azerbaijan's terms

First and foremost, revanchists in Yerevan believed that the terms on which Armenia would have to make peace with Azerbaijan were becoming clear to the Armenian society now. At the end of the war, some in Yerevan, Gyumri and Vanadzor still entertained hopes that the world community would simply prevent Azerbaijan from cementing its military success on paper. They believed that Yerevan's foreign friends and partners would line up to help Armenia rebuild its army and that Armenian diplomacy would easily jam through (or beg) a return to the Kazan Document, the Madrid principles, etc.

But these anticipations proved to be illusory. The OSCE Minsk Group has been ‘buried’ officially, while its former co-chairs are now referred to as ‘special envoys’ for the region. Nor is the Minsk Group mentioned in the final declarations of trilateral meetings, even as a sign of courtesy. Most importantly, Azerbaijan has already announced its five principles on which it will sign a peace treaty. None of them include any of those voiced in Armenia at the so-called Karabakh rallies of different generations.

 

What about our foreign friends?

There is also a factor of external order.

Contrary to the expectations of many, Russia did not intervene during Pashinian's ‘barbecue revolution’ and did not help Serzh Sargsyan to stay in power. Even now Russia’s reaction to the events in Armenia can be well described as even-tempered.

There is unofficial speculation that the Kremlin may be behind the current protests, as Moscow is quite fed up with Pashinyan's political wiggling. There were some reports in the Armenian media that the Dashnak leader Ishkhan Saghatelyan has recently visited Moscow to negotiate over Nikol Pashinyan's resignation. These rumours are not reliable though. But Moscow has indeed been unhappy that Nikol Pashinyan was negotiating with Azerbaijan in Brussels. His opponents, who are now rallying in the streets of Yerevan, position themselves as pro-Russian. Also, they are supported by the Russian news agency Sputnik through its branch in Yerevan.

But even now the revanchists fail to take enough demonstrators to the streets. As ironically noted by Jeyhun Bayramov, the Azerbaijani foreign minister, the number of protesters does not even reach five or six thousand people. In other words, the plane of revenge failed. Guess why.

 

Armenia without Garabagh and the Garabagh clan

As noted above, the slogans of revenge should have worked out in theory. But in practice, however, Armenia is categorically against the return of the so-called Garabagh clan to power in Armenia, even if they use Garabagh as a bait.

This is not something people like talking about out loud in Yerevan, but, in fact, regionalist sentiments are quite strong in the Armenian society. Armenians from Garabagh are regarded in Armenia as ‘half-blood’ Armenians and offensively nicknamed as 'renegades', 'son of a Turk', etc. Moreover, Armenia remembers well the years of rule of the criminal Garabagh clan, which they overthrew thanks to the help of Pashinian's ‘revolution’. Yerevan still remembers what Robert Kocharyan, Serzh Sargsyan and their ilk have done in Armenia.

The saddest thing for the revanchists is to realise that Armenians no longer want to fight for Garabagh. There are many reasons why, primarily including Azerbaijan's victory in the 44-day war. It’s not only about this victory, but also how and under what circumstances Azerbaijan won the war. On the eve of the war no one believed in the possibility of the liberation of Garabagh by military means. Now, when Azerbaijan has finally solved this problem, Armenian society has eye-witnessed what war was in reality, not in video clips and propaganda, it quite reasonably asks itself what the cost of yet another revenge will be this time. When Azerbaijan already controls Shusha and Hadrut, deploys its military infrastructure on strategic heights and has already demonstrated its army in action. In short, the real war was not at all an experience that Yerevan would like to repeat.

Nor is there any real chance of gaining international support. Especially amid the geopolitical shifts in Ukraine.

There is also an economic aspect of the issue. In thirty years, Armenia has realized the social and economic cost that the country had to pay - and still does - for claiming Azerbaijani lands. So far Armenia has used only the geo-economic stick. Now it sees perspective advantages thanks to a ‘carrot policy’ through unblocking communications, suspension of the blockade, etc. Now it turns out that many Armenian citizens are ready to give up their territorial claims to neighbours to get this carrot instead. Recently, there was the Armenian has published an appeal by dozens of public figures who believed that the ‘war campaigns’ could no longer succeed in Armenia and that Pashinyan should sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, renouncing his land claims.

But will this stop the revanchists?

 

"Import of Terror"

A professional terrorist Ambik Sassounian has been detained at one of the opposition rallies. According to circles close to Nikol Pashinian, the Dashnaks are trying to bring their supporters to Armenia from other countries, primarily Lebanon. Officially, to participate in protest rallies. Unofficially, there is an inflow of fighters and terrorists to Armenia. But this time not to fight against Azerbaijan, but for a civil war. We well know that political assassinations, conspiracy and rebellion are the traditional methods of the former president Robert Kocharian and his supporters.

The current small-scale rallies can well cost Armenia a lot of blood, even without Azerbaijanis in an attempt to prevent revenge.



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