WASHINGTON REPORTS

US President Joseph Biden's tour to the Middle East hit the headlines being perhaps the most expected event of July. There were indeed quite a few highlights. After all, it was not just a visit of the global superpower’s leader to the most sensitive and tense geographical location on Eath, but also a significant event in terms of the region's future.

Probably, the occasion that actually determined the political fate of the region and the strategic role of the US in shaping it was Biden's statement during a press conference in Saudi Arabia, which was his third destination. "We will not leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran," Biden said, effectively confirming the scope of his visit going beyond regional politics. Over the past few years Washington has been genuinely concerned about the increasing presence in the Middle East of its traditional rival, and now the declared enemy, China. It is therefore reasonable to assume that another goal of the American leader’s visit to the region was to counter the global political expansion of Russia and China into this traditional US fiefdom. Did Biden achieve his goals?

Back to square one

In fact, the Americans are a little too late. It will soon be ten years since Russia has been active in the Middle East. China announced its presence in the region thanks to deploying its first overseas military base in Djibouti back in 2015. During the Arab Spring and the wars with terrorists in the region, Russia has sold large quantities of weapons and military equipment to the Middle Eastern countries and increased its military presence in Syria and North Africa. Meanwhile, China has conducted a series of joint military exercises and signed multi-billion-dollar energy contracts with those regional countries with which Beijing had previously cooperated actively in joint economic projects and to which it had provided loans.

The US is now trying to renew old ties and strengthen its position in the region. At the same time, among the main factors behind the American president's visit to the Middle East are the turmoil in the global energy market with the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war and rising oil and gas prices in the US and Europe.

As part of his visit, President Biden made three stops—in Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia. In Riyadh, he attended a regular meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), attended by the king and crown prince of the Saudi monarchy, other Saudi officials and the representatives of member states of the organisation, as well as the leaders of Iraq, Egypt and Jordan.

Messages from Israel

Riyadh welcomed President Biden at high level. Washington signed several agreements with the Saudi authorities in a number of areas, including the military. The United States and Israel also signed the Jerusalem Declaration on joint strategic cooperation.

In addition, Jerusalem welcomed agreements on simplifying US entry visas for Israeli citizens, as well as the agreement on Washington's financial and technical assistance for the development of Israeli laser-based air defence systems. In addition, Israeli officials were pleasantly surprised that Biden did not criticise their government, the construction of new Jewish settlements in the disputed territories, the death of Palestinian journalist Shireen Abu Akleh and the events that took place at her funeral ceremony. But despite the Israeli prime minister's insistence, the US President did not comment on the Iranian issue that long, limiting himself to generic statements. Biden just repeated that the US would not allow Iran to become a nuclear power and that the US and Israel had common lines of action to counter Iran's ballistic missile programme and Tehran's support for armed groups in the region.

Same as his predecessors, Biden also referred to the "two states for two peoples" principle for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

However, Biden's meeting with Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem and the statements he made there suggest that the Palestinian conflict is not an urgent issue on the US administration's agenda at the moment. Biden only pledged $100m in aid to the health care system of the autonomy and another $200m for the Palestinian refugees. He also expressed his willingness to support a transparent investigation into the circumstances of Abu Akleh’s death. Meanwhile, Mahmoud Abbas once again made statements supporting the creation of the Palestinian state.

All these factors indicate that the Palestinian issue is not a US priority. Instead, Biden's most important message from Israel was his statement in support of the Abraham Accords, a project previously developed by the Trump administration to reconcile Arab countries with Israel. Demonstrating his loyalty to the project, Biden made a direct flight from Israel to Saudi Arabia for the first time in Middle Eastern history. Undoubtedly, this event can be viewed as a clear indication of the significance of processes unfolding in the region and shaping its future.

Saudi Arabian goals

The US President's main destination was Saudi Arabia, where he met with the leaders of several Arab countries and even expressed his views on many of them. By and large, the main outcome of his meetings and the essence of his statements made in Riyadh was that in the short term the kingdom will play an instrumental role in the US regional policy that Washington is going to reshape in the region thanks to more closely cooperation with Riyadh.

This cooperation has two main directions. First, Washington recognises Saudi Arabia as the leading state in the Middle East, especially in the Persian Gulf, by giving it an appropriate mandate to implement the Abraham Accords. Secondly, the US needs Saudi Arabia to achieve stability in the global oil market. In other words, the US will try to stabilise the global energy market through Riyadh.

Therefore, Biden, who a few years ago had been harshly critical of the Saudi leadership calling it an isolated state, had to nevertheless shake hands with the Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman and then hold a three-hour meeting with him behind closed doors.

The US-Saudi agreement led to the signing of 18 documents—mainly in the areas of energy, investment, communications, space research, information sharing and health. Of course, energy remained the main topic of discussions. Most of the documents signed covered the energy sector because under the current circumstances Saudi Arabia is almost the only state capable of preventing ongoing price manipulation on the global market and neutralising ‘external interventions’.

On the other hand, the flight of US Air Force One directly from Tel Aviv to Jeddah was the beginning of a new era in the Arab world, which has also been contributed a lot by the Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman.

Another topic of US-Saudi discussions was Iraq. The American leader stated that the main objective of his administration with regard to Baghdad is to supply Iraq with electricity through Saudi Arabia at the expense of the Gulf states. It is believed that doing so should eliminate Iraq's energy dependence on Iran. Biden said this had been his goal back when he was vice-president and now he has ‘finally accomplished’ it. This means that the US is trying to separate Iraq from Iran thanks to the Arab countries, primarily Saudi Arabia. In other words, it is Riyadh that will implement the US policy in Iraq in the coming period, taking the competition with Iran to a fundamentally new stage.

Conclusion

President Biden’s first and so far last visit to the Middle East has defined the contours of the US foreign policy. Thus, it is already possible to make up a brief list of the results of the visit to the region. Washington will continue to provide financial and technical support to Israel and to protect it against any foreign interference. In return, Israel pledges not to attack Iran without the consent of the US. At the same time, the realisation of the Abraham Accords will continue, while the US will support the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia was marked by quite interesting statements. Washington expects the kingdom’s government to fulfil the US’s main mission in the Middle East, seeing it as the driving force behind the Abraham Accords. The process is likely to accelerate and the rapprochement between Riyadh and Jerusalem will continue. Saudi Arabia will also act with the US in the Persian Gulf and undertake joint projects to reduce the Iranian influence in Iraq.

Finally, Muhammed bin Salman has been given green light to become the new king of Saudi Arabia. According to many observers, Riyadh insisted on a meeting between Biden and bin Salman—an important point in terms of removing a major obstacle in Salman's path to the royal throne. And the three-hour conversation between the two leaders has demonstrated who is the real boss in Saudi Arabia. Most importantly, the US did not mind this move.

We therefore can assume that President Biden’s Middle Eastern tour leads to new developments in the region in the near future.