CONFLICT OR RECONCILIATION?

The October 7, 2023 attack on Israel by Hamas and the war that began right after the incident have significantly damaged the already sluggish process of rebuilding Turkish-Israeli relations, which continue to cool as the conflict in Gaza escalates.

On October 19, Israel withdrew its diplomats from Türkiye claiming security concerns. Although a couple of weeks later, the Israeli Prime Minister said that the ambassador in Ankara had been summoned for consultations. But the next step can well be the withdrawal of the ambassador, which will eventually break up the relations between the two countries.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan harshly criticised Israel for a series of bombing strikes on the Gaza Strip. Tel Aviv did not remain silent and responded to the statements of the Turkish president.

On November 4, the Turkish government decided to recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv. According to the Turkish foreign ministry, ambassador Sakir Ozkan Torunlar was recalled due to Israel's rejection of a ceasefire proposal in Gaza, as well as for consultations on the uninterrupted delivery of humanitarian aid to the strip. Thus, diplomatic relations between the two countries may once again reach a breaking point.

President Erdogan also sharply criticised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "He is no longer someone we can talk to. We have written him off," Erdogan said, emphasising the dramatic situation between the two countries. He also noted that the Turkish state bodies continue contacts with their Israeli and Palestinian counterparts. Many believe that Netanyahu and his right-wing Israeli government are the key actors in the current round of Turkish-Israeli tensions. But more on that later....

Ups and downs

Türkiye was one of the few Middle Eastern countries to maintain the closest ties with Israel. Wide range of relations between the two countries covered various areas, including trade, economy and military industry. However, the 2010 incident on the Mavi Marmama changed the situation dramatically. The attack by Israeli soldiers on volunteers carrying humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and the killing of ten of them brought relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv to a critical point. Both countries recalled their ambassadors, while Türkiye complained about Israel at the UN. Nothing changed even after 2013, when it was possible to reconcile the Israeli and Turkish prime ministers, Netanyahu and Erdogan, through the direct mediation of then US President Barack Obama, and after an apology issued by the Israeli government. It were the Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip that marred these relations, which began to gradually improve only a few years ago and after the Israeli president's visit to Türkiye in March 2022.

Nevertheless, economic and trade ties between the two countries have not only been preserved, but have grown fivefold. In 2022, the trade turnover between Türkiye and Israel increased to $8.91b compared to $1.41b in 2002. Remarkably, Türkiye has enjoyed an advantageous position in bilateral trade. Turkish exports in 2002 reached $861.4m, while Israel imported $544.5m-worth of Turkish commodities. The same indicators for the last year were $6.74b and $2.17b, respectively.

Moreover, Ankara is interested in the project of exporting gas produced by Israel from the Eastern Mediterranean to the European market via Türkiye. It is known that Tel Aviv and Ankara have already held talks on this topic. It seems that both countries are interested in the project.

So there is no certainty that the current situation can cause any serious damage to Turkish-Israeli relations. Past experience, as well as the current situation and the position of the Turkish authorities do not give grounds to think of a complete breakdown in bilateral relations. Thus, on November 5, on his way back from Kazakhstan to Ankara, the Turkish president told the journalists that the absence of his personal contacts with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu does not mean the lack of any contacts between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Such contacts are maintained through the Turkish foreign ministry and intelligence service, Erdogan said. In other words, there is no complete breakdown between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

According to a number of experts, Turkish authorities are trying to put pressure on Israel through international law to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. By the way, Ankara has already stated that the latter remained the priority of its foreign policy at the moment. On the other hand, the Turkish government is taking into account the possibility of Prime Minister Netanyahu's departure, thereby considering setting up ties with the new Israeli government that will be formed after or during the war. Therefore, we cannot confirm that the Turkish-Israeli dialogue is completely broken, as was the case with the Mavi Marmara incident thirteen years ago.

Angry Ankara

Remarkably, Ankara's stance on Israel is even tougher than that of the Arab states of the region. There are a number of reasons for this. First and foremost, the merciless bombing by Israel of the Gaza Strip in violation of international law and the rules of humanitarian behaviour, as well as the deaths of thousands of civilians, including children, have caused strong protest in Türkiye and throughout the world. The Turkish population reacted to the events in Gaza with mass marches, protests and boycotts. Particularly sensitive approach has been demonstrated by the religious-conservative and nationalist electorate of the Justice and Development Party. No doubt that the Turkish government could not ignore such a massive reaction. Türkiye's reaction to Israel's actions was gradual. Initially, Ankara condemned Israel's excessive use of force, calling for a ceasefire on both sides. But in the following days, the bombardment of the Gaza Strip intensified, causing an enormous increase in the protest mood against Israel around the world, including in Türkiye. Of course, Ankara could not ignore the voices coming from below. Yet the main reason that made Ankara angry about the Israeli government's actions was Tel Aviv's disregard for the Turkish position. While the indifference of Israeli authorities to the outrage of Qatar, a small state in the Persian Gulf, was understandable, but the disregard of Ankara's appeals. It was also the contemplative behaviour of the Arab countries that added fuel to the incident, prompting Ankara to take a firmer stance.

On the other hand, Ankara's image was at risk in the current military and political situation. During the latest escalation, Türkiye, which had been the leader of the entire Muslim world in the Middle East and especially in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for the past twenty years, was practically pushed off the stage. Doha and Riyadh enjoyed being at the forefront of the Middle Eastern diplomacy, while Tehran and the proxy structures it patronised were the vanguards of the military-political front instead of Türkiye. So Türkiye needed to regain its former glory, establishing itself as a full-fledged master of its own historical heritage and retaining its leadership in the Islamic world.

Perhaps if Tel Aviv had heeded Ankara's diplomatic appeals even formally, it would not have faced such a fierce pressure from the latter. Ignoring Türkiye and trying to sideline it in the region has further angered Ankara.

That is why in the days following the October 7 incient, Türkiye intensified diplomatic contacts with Iran, while the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was met at the Esenboga airport in Ankara by the head of a department of the Turkish foreign ministry and the deputy governor of Ankara.

Ankara has been demonstrating in every possible way that it should not be underestimated or sidelined in regional politics. At the same time, it seeks to achieve a ceasefire in the region using international pressure. The head of Turkish intelligence Ibrahim Kalin and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan are actively working for this purpose. As President Erdogan stated, Ankara's main goal is to first achieve a ceasefire and then begin negotiations for a radical solution to the conflict. But this will require strong international pressure on Tel Aviv.