NATO'S GROWING PESSIMISM

The NATO summit in Washington, which took place to mark the alliance's 70th anniversary, was preceded by a distinctly subdued atmosphere. Against the backdrop of the parties' unsuccessful performance in the European Parliament elections and the concomitant decline of political influence in their countries, the leaders of a number of NATO countries approached the summit with significantly weakened positions. A smaller number of states, however, have chosen to pursue independent courses of action with regard to the central issue on the summit's agenda: the choice of strategy to be adopted in relation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Furthermore, this forum occurred concurrently with a change in the leadership of the alliance itself. It was therefore unsurprising that no clear decisions were reached at the summit.

Surprising Gift

In advance of the summit, which took place on July 8, Russian troops launched a significant military operation against Kiev and a number of other Ukrainian cities. It would appear that the principal objective was to inflict damage on critical energy infrastructure. In Kiev, the missile strike resulted in the complete destruction or damage of three transformer substations in the Goloseevsky and Shevchenkivsky districts, in addition to significant damage to the power grids. Furthermore, there are indications that a military plant in Kiev may have been struck. Concurrently, Ukrainian media outlets have reported the destruction of social infrastructure and residential buildings. In particular, the Kiev hospital Okhmatdet was damaged as a result of the air raid, with two fatalities and at least 16 injuries reported. This institution is the largest children's medical centre in Ukraine.

The strike was purportedly timed to coincide with the Washington summit and was designed to demonstrate to NATO leaders that Moscow was maintaining a high level of pressure in the standoff by demanding the fulfilment of its conditions for halting the conflict, as previously announced by President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, a few days earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had become the most active international figure in seeking peace in Ukraine to date. He proceeded to Kiev, where he engaged in discussions with Ukrainian President Zelensky, openly acknowledging his intention to pursue a resolution to the conflict that would be "realistic in terms". Subsequently, he proceeded to Moscow, where he held discussions with the Russian President. On the eve of the alliance meeting, he undertook a visit to Beijing. In this context, he openly expressed support for the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine.

At the regular summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Astana, which commenced on July 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Putin. The agenda included matters pertaining to the prospective expansion of trade turnover, in addition to the possibility of a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.

It would be inaccurate to suggest that Hungary and Türkiye are acting in accordance with the overarching strategy of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO) with regard to Ukraine. The cessation of hostilities is not a priority for other members of the Alliance.

New Faces In the Old Alliance

In the days preceding the summit, parliamentary elections were held in the two countries leading the summit – Great Britain and France – resulting in a change of government in both. It would be inaccurate to suggest that the election results signified a radical shift in foreign policy; however, they undoubtedly precipitated a significant upheaval within the political systems of these countries. Such is the extent of the change that the fulfilment of election promises forces the new governments in both London and Paris to first of all address the challenges inherent in the current domestic political landscape and then consider how to provide assistance to Ukraine.

The inaugural foreign visits of the newly appointed British Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, to Germany and subsequently to Poland, where he pledged not to abandon Kiev without support, were of an introductory nature. It seems probable that the Conservative government in London will pursue a similar policy of forging military-political alliances with countries in the EU's eastern bloc. It is noteworthy that during his visit to Berlin, the British minister stated that his government intends to re-establish relations with the EU. The Ukrainian issue plays a relatively minor role in the new British foreign policy strategy towards the European Union.

It is also pertinent to note that the summit was not solely dedicated to the discussion of the issues pertaining to the Ukrainian conflict. In advance of the forum, the US permanent representative to NATO, Julianne Smith, revealed that the meeting would focus on the situation in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as other key issues. Concurrently, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is not engaged in discussions with its member countries regarding their potential accession to the coalition. Instead, it is pursuing a policy of "rapprochement" with these countries.

Concurrently, President Vladimir Putin held discussions with Indian President Narendra Modi in Moscow, during which they addressed the issue of enhancing bilateral cooperation and regional security. It is widely acknowledged that India occupies a prominent position as a partner of the United States and the countries comprising the "anti-China" bloc in South Asia and the Indian Ocean. Moreover, the close relations between Russia and India are subject to scrutiny not only from Western powers but also from China.

Modi's sustained engagement with Vladimir Putin, whom the prime minister referred to as "his friend", appears to be at odds with the long-term strategic objectives of NATO.

The United States and Ukraine were forthcoming about their apprehensions regarding the visit's outcome. The Ukrainian president censured Modi for publicly embracing Putin, despite being aware of the consequences of the extensive airstrike on Ukraine. This is despite the fact that, in Moscow, Modi openly censured his Russian counterpart. He asserted that armed conflict is not a viable solution. It is evident that the deployment of military force, whether in the form of bombs, missiles or rifles, is an inadequate means of achieving peace. "It is for this reason that we are prioritising dialogue, and it is evident that this approach is necessary." The Indian Prime Minister stated that the meeting involved an "open exchange of views" on the topic of Ukraine, conducted with mutual respect. As a consequence of the meeting, it has been revealed that, at the request of the Indian side, Russia will terminate contracts with Indian citizens who are engaged in military operations.

Biden-Trump Confrontation in Absentia

The NATO summit was a forum for an ongoing contest between Biden and Trump, as observed by the Guardian in its coverage of the event. The summit's primary focus was on Biden's capacity to prevail in the forthcoming election, rather than on the summit's stated objective of strengthening transatlantic relations. There was a concern among participants that Washington's support for the alliance might decline in the wake of Trump's arrival. Earlier, the former US president had stated on numerous occasions that he would not extend his support to those member states that allocated less than 2% of their gross domestic product to the defence budget.

It is noteworthy that NATO leaders have repeatedly underscored the fact that 23 out of the 32 member states have already fulfilled the commitment made a decade ago to allocate 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defence spending.

In the days preceding the meeting in Washington, Trump's allies advanced the argument that, should he be re-elected, the Republican would demand an increase in defence spending, while the US itself would shift its focus towards China. The United States' defence budget represents two-thirds of the total defence spending of all NATO members, amounting to $860 billion. It will therefore be challenging for European countries to assume the role of the United States and maintain the current level of financial support for Ukraine, which amounts to 40 billion euros annually.

On 8 July, Mike Johnson, the House speaker and Trump's principal ally, stated that the Republican Party upholds the value of the military alliance and is committed to supporting member countries in the prevention of conflict. He further asserted that the alliance must assume a more proactive role. He nevertheless asserted that "all parties should be prepared to continue to support Ukraine beyond 2025."

It is notable that Trump himself does not espouse this view and anticipates the cessation of hostilities within the first year of his potential tenure by proposing his own iteration of a peace plan to the parties involved.

Nevertheless, this issue was not addressed at the summit. However, President Biden's speech bore resemblance to a continuation of his unsuccessful televised debate with Trump. In his address, he attempted to convey a sense of optimism and unity, highlighting Ukraine's triumph. Nevertheless, the proposals put forth were largely vague and lacked concrete details.

Decisions and Frustrations

The decision to provide Ukraine with four Patriot systems (from the United States, Germany and Romania), components for these systems (from the Netherlands and other partners) and one SAMP/T system (from Italy) can be considered a tangible contribution to enhancing Ukraine's defence capabilities. Furthermore, Denmark has pledged to provide Ukraine with 19 F-16 fighter jets, while the Netherlands has committed to supplying 42.

Concurrently, it was asserted that Kiev cannot anticipate full NATO membership while the conflict persists, thereby precluding the possibility of a direct NATO confrontation with Russia.

Among the decisions taken was the agreement to establish a NATO Security Assistance and Training Unit (NSATU) for Ukraine, with the objective of coordinating the provision of military equipment and training by Allies and partners. The establishment of the NSATU will not result in NATO becoming a party to the conflict. The entity will facilitate the transformation of Ukraine's defence and security forces, thereby ensuring their continued integration into NATO. This is stated in paragraph 15 of the decision.

Furthermore, the formation of the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) will proceed, and a senior NATO representative in the country will be designated at the recommendation of the Alliance Secretary General.

The summit once again left the Ukrainian president with the impression that the Ukrainian side may not consider NATO membership until the war is over. Concurrently, the decision was taken to transfer more sophisticated weaponry to the Ukrainian army in the near future, which will enhance its operational effectiveness.

Anxious Thoughts on Further Developments

In a recent statement, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban asserted that the escalating involvement of NATO in the conflict in Ukraine is becoming increasingly perilous. He further observed that the North Atlantic Alliance is deviating from its original objectives and evolving into a more pronounced military alliance.

The Hungarian Prime Minister asserts that the growing militarisation of the alliance is evidenced by the fact that NATO is taking an increasingly active role in the Ukrainian conflict. Orban stated that this is a highly dangerous and irresponsible course of action, given the uncertainty surrounding the conflict's outcome and its potential implications.

In an interview, Zelensky was asked whether Ukraine would regain control of the territories within the 1991 borders or whether he saw some kind of negotiated solution. "When discussing territorial matters, it is imperative to consider the preservation of human life and the state itself as a primary objective." He then posited that Kiev is interested in losing to Russia. The head of state did not elucidate the means by which the Ukrainian side would address these two tasks.

In an interview with the German newspaper Bild, Orban stated that the next two to three months will be more challenging than the previous six, with an increased number of casualties.

Orban was in a clear minority at the summit in Washington. It is possible that some of those present shared the Hungarian Prime Minister's concerns and would have preferred to discuss the prospects for peace. However, given the prevailing mood, he refrained from doing so. In the contemporary public sphere, discourse surrounding the conflict often revolves around the prolongation of military operations and expressions of support for Ukraine. Nevertheless, this does not indicate that there is no consideration of a peaceful resolution. It appears that the majority of individuals are inclined to await the outcome of the November elections in the United States, thereby allowing any potential peace initiatives to be voiced by the candidate with the greatest likelihood of winning the election.