UNPREDICTABLE RACE

The campaign for the US presidential election scheduled for November 5 is entering a decisive phase. Future developments will hinge on the intrigue surrounding the withdrawal of 81-year-old incumbent President Joseph Biden.

Biden's Swan Song

Biden's decision to exit the presidential race was prompted by increasing pressure from his Democratic rivals. The last straw for their patience was his poor performance in the debate against his arch-rival, the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, compounded by his recent battle with the coronavirus, which intensified discussions about the precarious health of the current occupant of the White House.

On July 21, Biden announced his withdrawal from the race for re-election as president and nominated Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. On July 25, he reaffirmed his decision in an address to the nation. "I have decided that the best way forward is to pass the baton to a new generation; it is the best way to unite our nation," Biden stated, adding that he honours the office of the presidency but loves his country even more.

Biden pledged to utilize the remaining six months of his presidency to advance the US economy, reduce costs for "hard-working families," safeguard citizens' rights, and combat extremism. In terms of foreign policy, his priorities will continue to include supporting Ukraine, countering Russia, strengthening NATO's unity and strength, and negotiating a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.

Central to Biden's speech was his reiteration of a call for Americans to support Vice President Harris, who is anticipated to become the Democratic presidential nominee. "Kamala is experienced. She's tough. She's capable. She has been an incredible partner and leader of our country for me," the sitting president explained his choice.

Clearly, Harris was the only viable option for the Democratic Party's presidential candidate given that Trump's victory in the upcoming elections appeared increasingly likely, if not inevitable. But can this choice significantly impact or even offset that probability? Insights into this can be gleaned from both developments within the opposing "Trumpist" camp and the rising expectations among Democrats inspired by Biden's withdrawal from the election campaign and Harris's nomination. Moreover, opinion poll results foreshadow a sharp conclusion to the presidential race.

Trump is offended, but full of energy

The current presidential race has witnessed a dramatic event in modern US history: an assassination attempt on one of the candidates for head of state. This occurred during Trump's speech at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, where he was shot in the ear but miraculously survived. The assailant, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was neutralised by law enforcement at the scene.

In the aftermath of the assassination attempt, Trump called for Americans to unite and to "remain steadfast and determined and not let evil win." He attended the Republican Party convention in Milwaukee wearing an ear patch, accompanied by 40-year-old Ohio Senator J. D. Vance, who has been announced as his vice-presidential candidate.

At the convention, Trump was officially nominated as the Republican Party's candidate for president of the United States. His speech echoed a similar call for unity and included promises to establish "a new era of security, prosperity, and freedom for citizens of every race, religion, colour, and creed," asserting that he was running for "president of all America, not half of America." During his address, the former president could not refrain from sharply criticizing the Democratic administration. Trump labelled Biden as "the worst president in history," claiming that "the damage he has done to this country is unthinkable, just unthinkable."

Regarding the policies Trump intends to pursue if re-elected as President of the United States, it can be said that addressing illegal immigration will remain a top priority. He views it as "an invasion of the country that kills hundreds of thousands of people each year," pledging to complete construction of a border wall between the United States and Mexico. Furthermore, he intends to launch a significant deportation operation, even larger than the one executed by President Dwight Eisenhower in 1954, when over a million Mexican immigrants were expelled from the US.

Among Trump's foreign policy priorities, ending the war in Ukraine holds particular significance. Following the assassination attempt, he spoke by phone with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, emphasizing the necessity of concluding the military conflict with Russia. Trump asserts his capability to facilitate an early ceasefire, arguing that Moscow and Kiev can "negotiate an agreement that will end the violence and pave the way for prosperity."

As for the upcoming presidential race, all of Trump's recent statements suggest that Vice President Harris will be the Democratic nominee. He speaks of her in disparaging terms, claiming it will be even easier to defeat Harris than Biden. However, observers have noted some confusion within the Republican camp following the Democrats' decision to replace Biden with Harris. The explanation lies in the fact that Trump's entire campaign strategy had previously focused on criticising Biden's "weaknesses," particularly emphasizing his health issues as an elderly candidate—despite Trump himself being only four years younger than Biden. Now, however, Trump has also become an elderly candidate. While no one can dispute his vigour and capability, the argument regarding "age" will no longer be effective. Especially since Harris is not only 18 years younger than Trump but also possesses several other significant advantages related to her race and gender.

What is Harris capable of?

It is noteworthy that Kamala Harris identifies herself as a "black woman." These components of her identity significantly contributed to her nomination for the second most important position in the US government during Biden's presidential campaign four years ago. Her ascent to vice president was perceived as a major accomplishment for both feminist and anti-racist movements.

A new phase in Harris's political trajectory appears imminent with her nearly certain endorsement as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate. Although an official announcement is expected in August, Harris has already secured backing from party leadership and influential figures such as former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

At her first campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin—the same location where Trump was officially nominated as the Republican presidential candidate—Harris pledged to restore unity within the Democratic Party while also delivering strong criticism of Trump. In her critique, she employed not only Biden's terminology branding Trump and Trumpists as threats to American democracy but also accusations reminiscent of her previous role before entering politics. Citing her experience as California's attorney general, Harris stated at a rally in Milwaukee that she "knows people like Trump." "I've taken on criminals of all stripes. Predators who abused women. Scammers who defrauded consumers. Fraudsters who broke the rules for their own gain," she asserted.

Such statements resonate significantly given the ongoing criminal cases against Trump, whose claims of injustice are firmly rejected by him. Can Harris's incisive approach during this campaign alter its overall trend in Trump's favour?

It is clear that if elected president, Harris's policies will largely mirror those pursued by Biden. Specifically, regarding foreign policy, White House stances on the Russian-Ukrainian war will remain unchanged; namely, that the United States will support Ukraine "for as long as it takes."

Ultimately, the choice facing Americans in November will be less about individual candidates and more about ideological orientation. The current American landscape presents two competing visions for domestic life within the United States and its role on the global stage. Thus, the escalating confrontation between conservative nationalism embodied by Trump and globalist neoliberalism represented by forces aligned with the Democratic Party is poised to reach its peak. The resolution of this conflict at this critical historical juncture will inevitably stem from the upcoming presidential election.

Judging by various opinion polls released after Biden's withdrawal from the race, Trump and Harris appear to have roughly equal chances. This alone can be viewed as a tactical success for Democrats since Trump's ratings were previously significantly higher than Biden's. However, will this translate into strategic success for Harris?

In any case, this autumn in the US, as is customary every four years, promises to be heated. Yet this time, the stakes are even higher. After all, the challenges facing the United States are increasingly systemic—including those on the international stage—which could ultimately culminate in its loss of global leadership.