PAGERS ATTACK

The mass detonation of pagers primarily used by members of the pro-Iranian group Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria has sparked numerous speculations regarding Israel's involvement, though Israel has never claimed responsibility for the incident. This event is significant because, aside from reviving the now-obscure term "pager," humanity has once again been reminded of the dangers posed by technological advancements when employed for military purposes. Essentially, this marks the beginning of a new chapter in the history of proxy wars. It is also possible that other conflicting parties may adopt this method, which has proven to be very effective.

Proxy Panic

Iranian-backed proxies throughout the Middle East have commenced large-scale checks of electronic devices and are securing their communications in response to the devastating attack. This incident resulted in the mass detonation of pagers and radios utilized by Hezbollah, Iran's primary ally in the region.

In Iraq and the West Bank, senior militants associated with Iran have begun testing equipment and implementing new regulations concerning the use of personal electronic devices. Analysts indicate that other groups' communication systems are relatively more secure; however, they too are likely to enhance their protection as they evaluate the repercussions of the bombings. Many already avoid using mobile phones, while others have entirely abandoned portable radios, suspecting that they may have been compromised by Israel.

Israeli intelligence officials have been reticent about operations in neighbouring countries and have refrained from commenting on whether Israel was responsible for the attacks on devices in Lebanon and Syria. However, US officials, speaking to the Washington Post on condition of anonymity, acknowledged that Israel was behind the operation and claimed that it subsequently briefed Washington through intelligence channels.

This attack was unprecedented in both scale and impact, transforming ordinary devices into weapons of war. It began on September 17 when thousands of pagers distributed by Hezbollah detonated simultaneously across Lebanon and neighbouring Syria, inducing fear and panic in crowded streets and supermarkets. Within hours, all major hospitals in Lebanon were overwhelmed with casualties.

The assault continued over the following days, with more devices being detonated, including two-way radios. Lebanon's Ministry of Health reported that 40 people were killed and approximately 3,000 injured within just two days.

In a speech on September 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged that the attack inflicted an "unprecedented blow" to the group, which had started distributing pagers to its supporters this past spring. "Hezbollah is also worried that the intelligence upon which Israel targeted the group's fighters was gathered from hacked mobile phones. Back in July, it instructed its military to cease all mobile phone usage."

The group has always praised itself for its security measures, particularly its ability to counter Israel's "technological sophistication" through simpler means.

To Weaken Hezbollah

Israel's capacity to intervene throughout the production process, delivery to end users, and to fill technical devices with explosives on such a grand scale has astonished militants who have previously witnessed such actions. The ability of Israeli intelligence to infiltrate the low-tech communication networks of pro-Iranian groups has raised serious concerns across their extensive network, from Syria to Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories. Like Hezbollah, some of these groups have intensified attacks on US and Israeli targets in protest of Israel's military actions in Gaza.

In Yemen, partially controlled by Iranian-backed Houthis, these militants feel relatively secure due to their distance from Israel. The Houthis oversee the country's telecommunications institutions from the capital Sana'a. They lack a significant history of conflict with Israel; hence it is unlikely that Israeli intelligence would prioritize a major covert operation there.

However, the attacks in Lebanon represented a pivotal moment in the confrontation with Israel, prompting even the Houthis to reconsider their supplier networks and the technology associated with their telecommunications equipment—casting doubt on their confidence in security.

Hezbollah has consistently been one of Tel Aviv's primary targets. However, it is now more vulnerable due to its close proximity to Israel. The neighbouring Lebanese territory offers an ideal environment for intelligence gathering and operations against Israel. Weak state structures, political division, and economic collapse grant the group considerable freedom of action within the country.

Consequently, Lebanon has become the main target of Israel's recent attacks. The IDF's objective—made explicit by Israeli leadership—was to severely weaken Hezbollah, which was accomplished by detonating pagers and incapacitating its most active members.

The Israeli army has taken a proactive approach by striking Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon, thereby altering the balance of power along the northern border. "I promised that we would change the balance of security and power in the north—that's exactly what we are doing. We are destroying thousands of rockets and missiles aimed at Israeli cities and citizens," stated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a video message posted on X.

The new barrage came after Tel Aviv warned Lebanese residents via automated phone calls, text messages, and even Lebanese radios hacked by its military to steer clear of buildings utilized by Hezbollah.

Simultaneously, Israeli authorities alerted their own population about a potential escalation in regional tensions. The warning directed at Israelis likely corresponded to expected retaliation from Hezbollah or other so-called Iranian proxy groups operating in the region.

Waiting For A New War

The Israel Defense Forces have been intensifying strikes against suspected Hezbollah targets across Lebanon for weeks, pledging to eliminate the threat they pose to ensure the safe return home of tens of thousands of residents from towns and villages along Israel's northern border who were evacuated due to cross-border fire.

Meanwhile, the American president stated that the US was attempting to de-escalate tensions in Lebanon. "I have been briefed on the latest developments in Israel and Lebanon. My team is maintaining constant contact with their counterparts as we work to de-escalate so that people can safely return home," Biden remarked during discussions with UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the White House.

A new escalation in the region is clearly not advantageous for Washington as it approaches the presidential election—especially against the backdrop of statements made by his main opponent Donald Trump, claiming that under his leadership no large-scale war would occur in the region.

At the same time, the Pentagon announced that it is dispatching additional troops to the Middle East. Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder did not disclose how many additional forces would be deployed or specify their assigned tasks. It is important to note that around 40,000 US troops are already stationed in the region.

Israel is ramping up offensive operations against Hezbollah with cautious support from the US. The Biden administration has expressed concerns for months regarding mutual attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, which continue alongside the war in Gaza and are escalating towards full-scale conflict. The primary fear pertains to a broader conflict in the Middle East potentially forcing US troops into open intervention alongside Israel—whose actions are already condemned by Washington's NATO allies.

European Commission spokesperson Peter Stano referred to the attacks as "indiscriminate," while EU diplomatic chief Josep Borrell deemed them extremely concerning, jeopardizing Lebanon's security and stability. He called on behalf of the European Union for all concerned parties to prevent a full-scale war, which would have dire consequences for the entire region and beyond.

The likelihood of war was echoed by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah who, while acknowledging that the bombings constituted a "serious blow" to his group, accused Israel of violating all red lines with its attacks and effectively "declaring war."

In this context, hundreds of Lebanese have begun fleeing their homes towards neighbouring Syria, potentially leading to another humanitarian crisis in the region.

Is Bargaining Appropriate?

This situation coincided with Israel's chief of general staff announcing that preparations had commenced for a "pre-emptive offensive operation" in Lebanon—an indication that a third war may be imminent there.

It appears that Israel intends not only to eliminate Hamas in Gaza but also Hezbollah in Lebanon. At the same time, Israeli officials openly state that similar to Gaza, their conflict with Hezbollah could be prolonged with an objective aimed at completely dismantling its infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Iran—whose president indicated during a UN General Assembly session in New York that his country is prepared for dialogue with the West—has been slow to provide support for its primary proxy power in the Middle East.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei asserted that the deaths of commanders from Hezbollah during recent Israeli strikes would not substantially weaken the group. This implies a potential signal to Washington; officials there seem disinterested in an open war between Israel and Lebanon. They have even cautioned Israeli allies against targeting state institutions within Lebanon—at least until it becomes clear what Tehran is seeking and what compromises it might be willing to entertain."