AVOIDABLE CONFLICT

Recently, discussions among leaders of various countries and within diplomatic and academic circles have frequently included the possibility of nuclear war. This trend is not coincidental and is indeed quite concerning.

Moscow Revises Nuclear Doctrine

As the likelihood of Ukraine utilizing long-range weapons supplied by NATO nations to strike deep into Russian territory increases, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a significant announcement on September 25. He declared that Moscow would modify its nuclear doctrine, notably broadening the circumstances under which nuclear weapons could be employed. The document in question is titled "Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence." Its existence was first disclosed four years ago, two years prior to the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, when its current version was adopted.

In essence, the leadership of Russia views the primary tenets of this relatively recent document as becoming outdated due to the rapidly evolving military and political landscape surrounding the country, necessitating substantial revisions. In the updated version, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, particularly with the involvement or support of a nuclear power, is proposed to be regarded as a joint attack on the Russian Federation. Moreover, according to Putin, the utilization of nuclear weapons will be considered upon receiving "reliable information about a massive launch of aerospace attack means crossing our state border," including "strategic and tactical aircraft, cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft."

The Russian Federation's strategic nuclear forces, or the "nuclear triad," are recognised as the largest globally. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia leads in terms of nuclear arsenal size, possessing 4,500 nuclear warheads as of January 2023—800 more than the United States. Collectively, these two nations account for approximately 90 percent of all nuclear weapons worldwide, raising serious concerns regarding the implications of Moscow's decision.

The fear that Russia might activate its nuclear arsenal, even in a limited capacity, significantly restrains Washington and its allies from publicly allowing Kyiv to utilize their weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. At least no public decision has been made. However, it cannot be ruled out that such a decision has been tacitly reached.

Rejecting Nuclear Escalation

One of the first statements from new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte addressed this very issue. Supporting Ukraine's right to self-defense, Rutte stated that each NATO member should individually decide whether to permit Ukraine to target deep within Russian territory. By doing so, he distanced NATO from collective responsibility for this action.

However, the response from countries aligned with Russia, particularly those in BRICS, may provide some reassurance to Western nations on this matter. Learning of Moscow's intentions to amend its nuclear deterrence doctrine, these nations cautioned against the use or threat of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Countries including China and Brazil, as well as Bolivia, Türkiye, South Africa, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Zambia, Algeria, and Zimbabwe signed a document urging a renunciation of threats to employ weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear, chemical, and biological arms. The statement also emphasized that "civilian infrastructure, including nuclear power plants and other energy facilities, should not be targets of military operations."

For those who have been following developments closely, such a reaction from a coalition of countries representing the Global South is not surprising. In particular, China has consistently made public statements opposing the use of nuclear weapons for military and political objectives, regardless of their complexity.

In June of last year, The Financial Times reported that during Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to Moscow in March 2023, he personally warned Putin against using nuclear weapons in the Ukrainian conflict. According to sources cited by the newspaper, provisions regarding the unacceptability of nuclear weapon use were included in a joint statement from both leaders at Beijing's suggestion. There is even speculation that Xi could have threatened consequences for bilateral relations should Moscow refuse to comply.

China Opts For Stability...

It is crucial to recognize that any nuclear conflict could severely disrupt security in China itself. Such an event could inflict irreparable damage on the communication systems established under the Belt and Road Initiative, which Beijing has meticulously developed to strengthen ties with Central and South Asian countries while enhancing trade relations with the EU. Against the backdrop of intensifying competition with the United States, China's connections with Europe are growing increasingly significant. In a nuclear war scenario, Europe could become a central battleground.

Currently, China does not appear prepared for a global nuclear confrontation. While competition with the West is an undeniable aspect of Chinese foreign policy doctrine, it does not foresee Beijing engaging in direct nuclear conflict with the United States or participating in a worldwide nuclear war. For one, Chinese capabilities significantly lag behind those of Russia and the United States in terms of total nuclear warheads. Additionally, any global conflict could undermine China's aspirations to become the world's leading economy by negatively impacting its major economic partners' ability to engage in effective trade with Beijing.

Overall, China's nuclear strategy is characterized as one of "assured destruction." This strategy posits that China must endure an initial nuclear strike from an aggressor before retaliating in a manner that prevents the enemy from continuing hostilities. Accomplishing this goal with China's current nuclear arsenal poses considerable challenges.

Meanwhile, even Beijing cannot overlook certain realities. Specifically, there is an observable increase in nuclear capabilities among weapon-bearing nations and preparations by leading nuclear powers in anticipation of global nuclear warfare. Consequently, China—whether it wishes to or not—cannot remain indifferent to these ongoing developments and limit itself to mere declarative statements.

Thus, on September 25 this year, China tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) equipped with a training simulated warhead. According to a statement from the Chinese Defense Ministry, it landed in a "precisely defined sea area" in the Pacific Ocean.

For the first time in years, Chinese military tests took place in the Pacific Ocean instead of within its own airspace. Typically, ICBMs are launched over ranges within the Taklamakan Desert in Xinjiang province. The last significant ICBM test occurred in 1980 when a missile travelled 9,070 kilometres before landing in the Pacific Ocean. The revival of this 44-year-old practice may signal that Beijing should not be underestimated when assessing potential global nuclear conflict scenarios. Launching missiles into the ocean necessitates prior coordination with regional countries; thus, this signal may have been specifically directed at Pacific nations—primarily the United States and its allies.

...Yet Prepares for Conflict

Various sources indicate that China possesses numerous ICBMs capable of reaching distances up to 15,000 kilometres (the Earth's equatorial circumference is about 40,000 kilometres). This means that Chinese missiles can traverse the Pacific Ocean and target locations across vast distances.

Despite Beijing viewing nuclear weapons mainly as a deterrent against potential aggressors since 2020, former high-ranking Chinese diplomats and officials have hinted at possible shifts in this doctrine. Statements have suggested that increased military presence from the US and its allies in the Pacific might compel Beijing to reconsider its no-first-use principle regarding nuclear weapons and adjust it according to new realities.

Some analysts even speculate that adjustments to approaches concerning nuclear weapons could be influenced by the likelihood of their deployment if a military resolution occurs over Taiwan. They believe China is increasingly demonstrating readiness for large-scale military operations concerning Taiwan and in the South China Sea if situations in Ukraine and the Middle East deteriorate further. Concurrently, showcasing combat readiness should serve as a deterrent against actions by the US and Japan.

Nevertheless, in December 2022, the Chinese Ministry of Defence reaffirmed that its previous strategy remains unchanged: Beijing maintains its nuclear arsenal at a "minimal" level and does not engage in a nuclear arms race.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been more explicit in his statements. During a meeting with students at Belarusian State University of Informatics and Radioelectronics, he asserted that should Belarus be attacked, Minsk would be prepared to use nuclear weapons stationed under an agreement with Russia. Furthermore, according to Minsk's plans post-usage of such weapons by Belarus would necessitate Russia's involvement in a nuclear conflict.

Meanwhile, newly elected NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte advised against heeding Russia's nuclear threats and emphasized that allies currently see no immediate risks concerning nuclear weapon use.

We sincerely wish he were correct under these circumstances.