AFTER MAIDAN

Ukrainians have marked the beginning of two Maidans - the 10th anniversary of the Orange Revolution and last year's Euromaidan. By a decree of Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko, 21 November is now declared Day of Dignity and Freedom. In 2013, the confrontation began on Independence Square [known as Maidan] to protest against the refusal of the then Ukrainian government to sign an Association Agreement with the EU at the EU's Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius. After some time, the protesters began to demand the resignation of the president and radical changes in the country, street protests resulted in clashes with the police, and the whole world was watching with bated breath the shooting in the centre of Kiev and other Ukrainian cities. At that time, more than a hundred people were killed who are now referred to as the Heavenly Hundred. The current Ukrainian authorities call those events tragic but are confident that the price paid is comparable to the gains of the country, and so there is something to rejoice.

"Ukraine is a territory of dignity and freedom. These values have been forged not by one, but by two revolutions - our Maidan in 2004, which was a festival of freedom, and the Revolution of 2013, which was a revolution of dignity. It was an extremely tough test for Ukraine, when Ukrainians demonstrated their Europeanness, dignity, their desire for freedom," Poroshenko said.

Commemorative events, concerts and flash mobs were held in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, and a Warsaw-Kiev motor rally dedicated to European integration came to the finish in Ukraine's capital. Many events of the autumn-winter of 2013-14 are still waiting for assessment or even reassessment, but it is clear that the history of Ukraine has already been divided into "before and after the Maidan". After all, along with the European course and confirmation of their desire for freedom, the people of the country have received a lot of problems - the actual loss of part of the territory, an armed confrontation in the south-east of the country and an economic crisis. Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Ukraine Dmytro Shymkiv said the country's recovery plan for 2015-17 will be prepared by 15 December of this year. The implementation of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union should be the basis for all the changes in the country. As it is, Ukraine has to survive difficult times.

Thus, head of the National Bank of Ukraine Valeriya Hontareva admitted that the state has almost no gold left, only a "small number of bars, but these are literally up to one per cent (of the total gold and foreign exchange reserves)", worth merely 123.58m dollars. It is noteworthy that, according to the NBU's official statistics, the gold reserves should be eight times more, worth about 988.66m dollars. At the end of February of this year, the volume of gold reserves stood at 1,809m dollars. It is not quite clear what has happened to tonnes of gold, especially given the fact that the world prices for gold have been falling rapidly since March of this year, and selling it was not profitable at all.

Hontareva also said that the Ukrainian hryvnia has depreciated by 100 per cent since the beginning of this year. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) believes that a higher level of inflation should be expected as at the year end - from 19 per cent, which was forecast previously, to 25 per cent, which will be the highest inflation rate since 2000. Even in the crisis year of 2008, its level did not exceed 22.3 per cent. In addition, the NBU expects a reduction in Ukraine's economy by 7.5 per cent in 2014 and by 4.3 per cent in 2015. In the first half of 2014, the external debt increased by 65 per cent. According to the financial statement for the first nine months of 2014, the outflow of capital from Ukraine amounted to 359m dollars. It is not surprising that no-one is in a hurry to invest in Ukraine in the present situation.

Now Kiev actually lives on international aid from the World Bank and the IMF. The two-year programme of lending to Ukraine's economy by the IMF involves the allocation of 17bn dollars, of which Ukraine has already received 4.6bn. As for the WB assistance, Kiev has already received 2.5bn dollars of the total financial aid of 3.5bn agreed for 2014. In fact, most of the money received from the IMF goes to repay old loans.

Ukraine is also strongly assisted with expert advice. World Bank Country Director for Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine Qimiao Fan is of the opinion that Ukraine primarily needs reform of the oil and gas sector and achieving energy independence of the country. Indeed, it would not only alleviate pressure on the budget of Ukraine, which is paying a high price for Russian gas, but it would also greatly enhance trust in the country. On 21 November, US Vice President Joseph Biden and US Assistant Secretary Victoria Nuland arrived in Kiev. They congratulated the Ukrainians on the successful democratic election and urged them to form a government as soon as possible.

Negotiations on the formation of a coalition in Ukraine have really dragged on, though it was said that this process would not take much time. The reason is the discussion of candidates for senior positions. The ruling coalition is composed of five parties: Petro Poroshenko's Bloc, People's Front, the Samopomich [Self-Help] association, Oleh Lyashko's Radical Party and the Batkivshchyna [Fatherland] association. In the 421-seat parliament, Petro Poroshenko's Bloc won 132 seats, Arseniy Yatsenyuk's People's Front got 82 seats, Samopomich got 33 seats, Opposition Bloc got 29 seats, Oleh Lyashko's Radical Party got 22 seats, Batkivshchyna got 19 seats and Svoboda [Freedom] got 6 seats. Each of Strong Ukraine, Zastup [Spade], Volya [Liberty], and the Right Sector party will be represented in parliament by one MP elected in single-seat constituencies. In addition, 94 candidates who ran as independents won a seat in single-seat constituencies.

The essence of political standoff can be reduced to the following: in order to be effective, Arseniy Yatsenyuk needs "his own people" in the positions in the ministries of Internal Affairs, Finance and Justice. Also, the People's Front insisted that Oleksandr Turchynov should remain the chairman of the Supreme Council [Ukraine's parliament]. Meanwhile, Poroshenko may, according to the Constitution, appoint the ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defence. Let us recall that Ukraine once again lives under the constitution of 2004 which gives more power to the prime minister elected by parliament than to the president. Moreover, in addition to differences in nominations, there is a tension regarding approaches to reform. Thus, Poroshenko's Bloc supports the lifting of the moratorium on the sale of land, while the negotiating partners have a different opinion. The issue of the term of completion of the privatization of state property is open to debate, too. It is clear that in such a situation, both the parliament and the government of Ukraine are likely to work under conditions of confrontation between the prime minister and the president. "Offended" nationalists from Svoboda and the Right Sector, which have not received the expected number of parliamentary seats, can also have a say in the matter.

The struggle for power in Kiev hampers the nearing of the solution or at least stabilization of the situation in the south-east of the country associated with the breakaway Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics (LPR and DPR). By the way, the draft coalition agreement provides for the restoration of Kiev's authority over the entire territory of these regions.

Since September, the OSCE has been working on the final agreement of the lines of separation, following which a withdrawal of heavy weapons should commence. However, no-one can rule out the possibility of the war being resumed at any moment. On 16 November, Poroshenko said that Kiev is ready for an "all-out war". In turn, Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Arsen Avakov, writing on his Facebook page, promised National Guard troops additional weapons ranging from sniper rifles to "something else that need not be announced". It is expected that aid will be coming from abroad, too. Advisor to the US President Tony Blinken believes that the supply of arms to Ukraine may help stabilize the situation in the country. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry believes that the US arms supplies to Ukraine will be a violation of the Geneva accords. Incidentally, Yatsenyuk has suggested that Russia should take part in "serious negotiations" on Donbass held on a neutral territory, but Moscow declined, telling the Kiev authorities not to "invent the wheel" since there is the Minsk deal already. Meanwhile, Yatsenuk's proposal may be caused by the wish of the United States to join in the negotiation process.

Thus, the new government in Ukraine, which has finally been formed a year after the start of the Maidan, in addition to the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country and its economy, is going to be preoccupied with the transformation of the judiciary and law enforcement bodies, the national security and defence systems, to conduct anti-corruption reforms, abolish non-aligned status of Ukraine and take the ultimate course for Europe.

A survey conducted by the Rating sociological group showed how Ukrainians view the Kiev authorities and what they expect of them in the future. Thus, about half the population of the country is satisfied with President Poroshenko (49 per cent of Ukrainians trust the president and 42 per cent disapprove of his activities) and Premier Yatsenyuk (52 per cent vs. 40 per cent). Chairman of the Supreme Council Oleksandr Turchynov is less successful, as only 32 per cent of the citizens like his work (55 per cent do not like it). Slightly more than half of the respondents (51 per cent) are in favour of joining NATO, while 25 per cent are against it. Almost half of the respondents (48 per cent) support the initiative to cancel non-aligned status of Ukraine at the legislative level, while about a third of them (28 per cent) are against it. Ukraine's accession to the European Union (EU) is supported by a large number of respondents (64 per cent). About 36 per cent of the respondents believe it is necessary to cancel the truce and carry out the ATO until Ukraine has fully restored its authority throughout the Donbass, 21 per cent support the provision of broad economic and humanitarian powers to the region, 17 per cent are in favour of granting autonomy or federal status to these regions while keeping them part of Ukraine, and 9 per cent are for the separation of these territories from Ukraine. 

In arguing about the price Ukraine had paid for the consolidation of its national identity, US Ambassador to Ukraine Jeffrey Payette said that now "Ukrainians should answer the question of whether it was worth the trouble". One can only hope that the citizens of Ukraine will never need to use force for "consolidation", either in Independence Square or in Donbass. Euromaidan has evidently achieved its goal, as a new and ambitious government has been formed in Kiev and the country has set itself to carrying out reforms with active support of the West. Therefore, it can be said that after the Maidan, everything is only about to begin in Ukraine.