SEPARATISTS AGAINST SEPARATISTS

The situation in the Balkans has once again attracted the attention of the world's political quarters. This is especially true of Kosovo, the self-proclaimed republic whose separation from Serbia was mainly recognized by Western countries. In recent months, tension has been growing there affecting the interests of not only Serbs and Kosovars, but of the entire regional security.

A few days ago, there were clashes in Kosovo's capital Pristina between police and civilian activists protesting against establishing relations with Serbia. The disturbance resulted in several dozens of wounded and detention of more than 30 demonstrators by law enforcement agencies. It was reported that protesters set the Kosovan parliament building on fire and showered the government headquarters with Molotov cocktails.

The reason for the protests organized by the main opposition parties - the Movement for Self-Determination, the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, and the Initiative for Kosovo - was possible granting of more powers to the ethnic Serb minority. Such a possibility was provided for by the agreement, concluded between Belgrade and Pristina in August last year, on the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities (CSM) in Northern Kosovo. The document, brokered by the European Union and personally EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, provides that the CMS will de jure remain part of Kosovo and will de facto be managed and financed from Serbia. This decision immediately provoked a wave of protests in Kosovo, which intensified sharply in November last year. The opposition tries in every way to prevent the signing of the agreement, believing that the establishment of the Community will lead to confederalization of Kosovo on the model of Bosnia and Herzegovina, in which the Republika Srpska is functioning as a separate administrative entity. More than a dozen opposition activists are currently in custody, including Self-Determination leader Albin Kurti and Alliance for the Future of Kosovo parliamentary group head Donika Kadaj-Bujupi.

Meanwhile, Kosovo has virtually no control over the Serb-populated area of the territory of the former autonomous region, which previously was a part of Serbia. Today, this area inhabited by Serbs claims special status, which, in effect, creates a unique situation of a confrontation between two groups of separatists. The Serb-populated area of Kosovo is called Northern Kosovo, but there are no government authorities of the self-proclaimed state in this area and it is not accessible by law enforcement agencies controlled by Pristina. Kosovo authorities have repeatedly tried to take control of the border between Northern Kosovo and Serbia in recent years, but these efforts have not been successful because of both the resistance of the Serb population and pressure from the European Union, which is not interested in the resumption of the confrontation between Pristina and Belgrade.

In the meantime, the events unfolding in the region now may lead to a new round of confrontation. The unrest in Pristina was accompanied by demands for the resignation of Isa Mustafa's government, in the context of which the possibility of a political crisis in Kosovo cannot be ruled out. On the eve of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in the breakaway region to be held in spring, one may notice visible strengthening of the radical nationalist wing of the Democratic Party of Kosovo, led by Deputy Prime Minister Hashim Thaci, and the opposition Alliance for the Future of Kosovo, led by former field commander Ramush Haradinaj, who has become the leader of the protest movement among part of the Kosovo Albanians.

However, a much more serious factor influencing the current processes in Kosovo and relations between Pristina and Belgrade is the policy of the European Union. Brussels is seeking to finally gain a foothold in the Balkans, this time not only by relying on the Kosovars, but also by irreversibly involving Serbia in the Euro-Atlantic orbit of influence. It is with the aim of implementing the latter objective that the process of de facto sovereignization of Kosovo Serbs, which suits the interests of Belgrade, has been initiated. This is why protests staged by Kosovo Albanians are not viewed by European structures with the level of sympathy Pristina had hoped for. By the way, some experts believe that Isa Mustafa's government only pretends it is trying to implement the agreement with Belgrade on the creation of the CSM, while in fact it does not show sufficient efforts to ensure its ratification by the Kosovo Parliament.

Whatever the case, Pristina is likely to continue to be subjected to pressure from Brussels, in the opinion of which it has already fulfilled its main mission as the destroyer of the territorial integrity of Serbia - a country that was not always obedient to the will of the Western centres. Among the instruments of pressure is Brussels's favourite topic of democratic reforms. Fortunately, the EU signed an Association Agreement with Kosovo in October last year, which provides for the liberalization of the former Serbian autonomy in exchange for strengthening its political and economic cooperation with Brussels. Nevertheless many Kosovo politicians, including Hashim Thaci, who seemingly hoped that the EU, after recognizing Kosovo's independence, would be quick to bring Pristina into its fold, express disagreement with the policies of Brussels, accusing it, in particular, of unwillingness to simplify the visa regime.

Meanwhile, the developments in Kosovo should be considered in the pan-Balkan context, which is still being formed, though not as eventfully as in previous decades, along the line of confrontation between the West and Russia. For the latter, Serbia, even though it is eager to acquire EU membership, still remains the guarantor of at least some of Moscow's influence in the Balkans. Hence, Russia's categorical unwillingness to recognize Kosovo as an independent state and support for the actual sovereignization of the Serb-populated area of the breakaway region.

NATO's recent invitation for Montenegro to join the alliance should also be viewed in the context of the confrontation between Russia and the West. Moscow has called it an "openly confrontational step which is fraught with additional destabilizing consequences for the system of Euro-Atlantic security". It is obvious that a possible NATO invitation to Serbia will be met with even greater condemnation by Russia. Not surprisingly, certain circles in the West are very cautious in their assessment of the EU-brokered agreement on the establishment of the Community of Serb Municipalities within Kosovo, assuming that this formation can play a role in the implementation of Russia's plans to preserve its influence in south-eastern Europe.

In any case, the processes in Kosovo and around the establishment of the CSM, along with the continued confrontation between Russia and the West, as well as the problem of migration from the Muslim East that swept the Balkan countries are going to shape regional geopolitics in the foreseeable future.