"TESTING" THE WORLD

The launching of a rocket with the Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite by North Korea has further escalated the situation on the Korean Peninsula. While it was announced that the satellite had been launched for peaceful purposes, there are fears that North Korea is thus testing a ballistic missile of its own manufacture. The fact of launching was confirmed by the defence departments of China, Russia, the United States, South Korea and Japan, although conflicting reports about its circumstances are still coming in. Thus, the South Korean military believe that the satellite was not put into orbit and fell hundreds of kilometres away from the launching pad, never achieving the objectives of the space programme. However, the Pentagon, through its Press Secretary Peter Cook, confirmed that North Korea has really brought a "satellite or some space device" into orbit.

This is the second time North Korea has launched its carrier rocket with a satellite. The first rocket was launched four years ago, and North Korea has thus become the tenth space power with its own booster, ahead of its neighbour, South Korea.

Two days before the launch, US President Barack Obama and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed over the phone North Korea's plans to test a ballistic missile. "The leaders have made it clear that they will not agree to recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. They agreed that North Korea's planned ballistic missile test would contravene multiple UN Security Council resolutions and represent another provocative and destabilizing action," the White House stated in a press release.

Diplomatic talks have intensified after the launch. Thus, President Obama discussed the repercussions of the launch with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Park Geun-hye and promised them protection against possible threats.

Amidst tough criticism expressed by the United States, South Korea and Japan, which suspect North Korea of testing a ballistic missile disguised as putting a satellite into orbit, the United Nations convened an emergency meeting of its Security Council, which strongly condemned the "irresponsible provocation" by North Korea. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on the country's leadership to abide by its international obligations, as launching of this type of missiles is prohibited by the relevant UN Security Council resolution.

Speaking about possible sanctions, US Secretary of State John Kerry made a noteworthy remark: "With all due respect, more significant and impactful sanctions were put in place against Iran, which did not have a nuclear weapon, than against North Korea, which does".

China, which apparently does not wish to be perceived as a "permanent patron" of its neighbour to the south, supported the statement of the Security Council, too, but made it in a peculiar manner. According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying, "North Korea should have the right to the peaceful use of outer space. However, its right is currently limited by the UN Security Council resolution". "The Chinese side hopes that relevant parties could react with calm and caution, refrain from taking actions that may further escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and jointly uphold regional peace and stability," the Chinese diplomat said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry also made a relevant statement: "We have to state that Pyongyang does not heed the calls of the international community, once again demonstrating the defiant disregard for international law".

A no less significant event that had taken place a little earlier added fuel to the fire.

A nuclear bomb is the best "protection"

Just one month before the launch of the carrier rocket, an underground nuclear test was conducted at North Korea's Punggye-ri test site, which caused an earthquake that registered 5.1 on the Richter scale. According to North Korean media, a "reduced-size hydrogen bomb" was successfully tested "with the aim of protecting from the forces rallied around the United States that are hostile to the Democratic People's Republic of Korea". The readiness for such a test was suggested by North Korea's current leader Kim Jong-un in December last year. However, information about the testing of a hydrogen bomb is not supported by the findings of independent experts who consider the force of the explosion to be insufficient for such a nuclear charge - less than one-tenth of the TNT equivalent of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The previous test became public in February 2013, following which the North Korean government also mentioned the development of a smaller nuclear device. Alas, given public inaccessibility of such information in the country, combined with the secrecy of all activities related to the specifics of North Korea's nuclear programme, it is extremely difficult to make concrete assumptions about the nature of what is happening. Moreover, in 2003, North Korea suspended its membership of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, which is contrary to the norms of international law. In the light of the conclusion of a multilateral agreement on Iran's nuclear programme in July, the latest test at Punggye-ri looks highly provocative.

Judging by the excitement over this issue in the Western media, the major powers are seriously concerned about what is happening on the Korean Peninsula. Compared to a similar test two years ago, this time the public is presented with information about a mass destruction weapon with a more powerful charge produced in such a short time - two years. Meanwhile, a nuclear weapon of a "reduced size" may well fit into the warhead of a ballistic missile which, according to CNN, allows North Korea to threaten Australia, most of Western Europe and the US West Coast.

According to US military experts, the number of North Korean nuclear warheads ranges from 10 to 100, but at the moment the country does not possess technology for delivering such weapons. Following the restart of the country's largest Yongbyon reactor in September 2015, North Korea has resumed production of plutonium, suspended in 2008 as part of the agreement on disarmament in exchange for food aid. In his recent report to the Senate Armed Services Committee, US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper suggested that Pyongyang intends to expand work on the development of long-range ballistic missiles, thereby posing an immediate threat to the United States. Thus, analysts conclude that the nuclear ambitions of North Korea continue to swell, despite the numerous rounds of international negotiations, coupled with the tightening of the sanctions regime.

In this regard, the positions of Russia and China appear to be more restrained, as they consider statements about hydrogen bomb testing ill-founded and openly oppose the imposition of unilateral sanctions against North Korea. Speaking at a press conference held in Seoul on 2 February, Russian Ambassador to the Republic of Korea Aleksandr Timonin expressed doubts about the effectiveness of economic sanctions, stressing that the economic blockade will not contribute to the solution of the nuclear issue. This view is consistent with the findings of experts who are confident that North Korea is not yet ready to make a sufficiently powerful nuclear charge to be fitted into a long-range ballistic missile.

When the rich wage war…

Standing out against the background of these developments are statements by South-Korean officials. Thus for instance, MP Lee Cheol-woo of the ruling Saenuri Party has made a statement about Seoul having serious suspicions that Pyongyang allegedly received basic missile components from Russia. The same point of view has been voiced by Lee Byung-ho, director of the country's intelligence service. He blamed Russia for supplies of missile technologies to North Korea, which is a gross violation of relevant UN resolutions. Moscow responded through the lips of Dmitry Rogozin, deputy prime minister in charge of developing space technologies: "We closely follow how non-proliferation of missile technologies is observed and the commission run by me has never issued any permits of this sort for North Korea," Rogozin said. For his part, Mikhail Ulyanov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control, even demanded apologies from official Seoul. "If the South Korean side has some grounds to suspect us of illegitimate supplies running counter to resolutions of the UN Security Council, such evidence must be presented. If there are none, I would advise thinking about officially disavowing these insinuations and apologizing, preferably in public," Ulyanov said.

However, Russia and China have their own complaints about South Korea and reasons for concerns apart from the large-scale US-South-Korean manoeuvres aimed at preventing further provocations by Pyongyang. In particular, on 7 February, the day when the North-Korean carrier rocket was launched, the Defence Ministry of the Republic of Korea confirmed that the governments of South Korea and the USA were negotiating the deployment of a US anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defence system, the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System), in the south of the Korean Peninsula. It is designed to intercept short- and medium-range missiles and provide security against North Korea's threat. In this regard, Russian experts believe, the launch of the North Korean missile is not a reason but rather an excuse for the offstage talks between the two countries. According to Aleksandr Zhebin, director of the Centre for Korean Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studied of the Russian Academy of Sciences, there is no real threat coming from North Korea so far, but the USA has got the opportunity to deploy its ABM defence system, thus trying to get the unwanted North-Korean regime deposed by the Russians and the Chinese.

Moscow's official point of view has been voiced by Ambassador A.Timonin who urged "all sides concerned to show restraint and especially to refrain from steps in the military sphere that might destabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula". Russia's approach to the nuclear problem, in particular its non-approval of unilateral economic sanctions against North Korea, are also unambiguously supported by the PRC. This is quite understandable, given that China's share in the foreign trade turnover of North Korea accounts for about 70 per cent. However, what really matters here is not so much the economic benefits of the two countries' cooperation as the great difference between the basic interests of China and the USA. Beijing is sure that the "North-Korea threat" is nothing other to the USA, much like South Korea and Japan, than an opportunity to build up its military arsenal and modernize its military technical resources in the Asian-Pacific region. 

Quite probably, such abrupt moves on both sides of the conflict may only further escalate the arms race in the East-Asian countries located in immediate proximity to Russia an China, thereby weakening all attempts to consolidate the precarious peace in the region. In response to this, North Korea, with its characteristic enthusiasm, may take similar countermeasures under the colour of "protecting own borders".