LOTS OF NOISE, LITTLE HELP

The confrontation between Russia and Turkey is becoming more acute. Military demarches on both sides do not rule out even an armed conflict. Among the factors that contribute to a further escalation of tensions between Moscow and Ankara is the denunciation of the 16 March 1921 Russian-Turkish treaty of friendship and brotherhood proposed by certain political circles of Russia.

The continuing escalation of the confrontation between Turkey and Russia is indicated by Ankara's accusation that the Russian Aerospace Forces (ASF) have violated Turkish airspace. This is another disappointing circumstance for the peaceful development of events - Turkey's armed forces are on full combat readiness, which provides for destruction fire by the military even without an order from the command. Thus, Moscow and Ankara, which in fact suspended the bilateral political dialogue after the incident with the downed Russian bomber Su-24, are close to a very dangerous point from which there is no return to old good-neighbourly relations.

The rupture of the Russian-Turkish dialogue is taking place largely under the influence of the Syrian war. The Syrian government troops, backed by the Russian ASF, are advancing in the direction of the border with Turkey, regaining control of the territory in the north. Ankara, accusing Moscow of mass deaths of innocent Syrians, insists that the main target of the Russian military campaign is not the so-called "Islamic State" (IS), but the forces of the Syrian opposition. Russia rejects such allegations and is trying to convince the world community that its information about cooperation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the notorious IS in the oil sector is reliable.

In the same conflict with Turkey, Russia continues to demand that Ankara apologize for the downed bomber, punish the perpetrators and compensate the damage inflicted on the Russian side. However, such a move by Turkey as the Russian military operation in Syria continues seems almost unreal. This means that the confrontation between the two former strategic partners is likely to continue. The question of denouncing the Moscow treaty of friendship and brotherhood signed almost 95 years ago by the government of the RSFSR and the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, raised in Russia, also leaves no doubt on this score. The authors of this initiative are members of the State Duma from the Communist faction, Valeriy Rashkin, and Sergey Obukhov, who submitted a corresponding proposal to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

The Treaty of Moscow and the 13 October 1921 Treaty of Kars determined the borders of Turkey with the Caucasian Soviet republics - Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Under the Treaty of Moscow, the indigenous Azerbaijani region of Naxcivan gained autonomous status within the Azerbaijan SSR. The Treaties of Moscow and Kars concluded with the participation of Soviet Russia between the government of Mustafa Kemal (later Ataturk - the founder of the Turkish Republic) and the Transcaucasian republics legalized international borders in the South Caucasus. Therefore, the possible denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow initiated by Russian deputies could trigger a violation of the regional order, which is already precarious and exposed to serious threats due to the ongoing territorial conflicts in the region.

It is no accident that Armenia, which has occupied one fifth of Azerbaijan's territory and is putting forward territorial claims to Turkey, is so closely watching the outcome of the initiative to denounce the Treaty of Moscow. Among the Armenian politicians and experts there are also those who, inspired by the example of the anti-Turkish deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, are calling for an immediate demand that Ankara give the eastern region of Turkey to Armenia. The denunciation of the Treaties of Moscow and Kars would be just in time for these hotheads, because it is these agreements that secured Turkish ownership of the Kars Province and Surmali County with Mount Agridag. We should also speak separately about Armenian claims to Naxcivan, which individual Yerevan strategists offer to seize with the assistance of Russia and under the guise of talk about the possible denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow. At the same time, individual Russian politicians indulge their questionable courage, for example, a State Duma deputy from the Just Russia faction, Oleg Pakholkov, who not only supported his colleagues - the initiators of the denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow, but also called for "Karabakh to be returned to Armenia". "The question of denouncing the treaty of friendship and brotherhood is a normal measure. And Armenia will support us on this issue," he added.

Meanwhile, it is obvious - and Russian politicians themselves are well aware of this - that Russia's withdrawal from the treaties with Turkey does not mean a de facto and de jure change of international borders in the Caucasus, not to mention the fact that Armenia will never get any eastern vilayets from Turkey or Karabakh and Naxcivan from Azerbaijan, which has historically owned these lands. And the initiators of the denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow are thinking about the interests and ambitions of Armenia least of all. The only thing that drives them is to launch another means of pressure on Ankara in a wildly unfolding Russian-Turkish confrontation.

"With our proposals for the denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow, we want to bring to the attention of the Turkish leadership and President Erdogan that they are making a big mistake, considering Russia a second class country," Valeriy Rashkin openly admits.

Even Oleg Pakholkov, who is sympathetic to Armenians, has no illusions about the true motives of the possible denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow. "Russia is not going to war with Turkey," he stressed. "In general, to be honest, it is a blow to Erdogan." Pakholkov is aware that it is impossible to change the borders if such denunciation really happens. "Of course, the denunciation of the Treaties of Moscow and Kars has no obvious political and legal consequences," Pakholkov says. "As far as I know, Georgia and Armenia have denounced these agreements. And so what, did they acquire new territories? All states will remain in the borders in which they exist today."

Finally, the Russian government seems to clearly understand that the negative impact of the conflict with Turkey on relations with Azerbaijan is unacceptable. "Russia will do nothing that could worsen relations between Moscow and Baku," the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mariya Zakharova, said. According to her, Russia is developing relations with Azerbaijan, and will focus only on what would improve Azerbaijani-Russian relations.

Valeriy Rashkin spoke in even more detail on that score: "The denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow cannot affect bilateral relations with Azerbaijan. Our relations are friendly, brotherly and neighbourly. The history of these ties is ancient. Now the political leadership of both countries is doing a lot to preserve these relations. Therefore, if such a step is taken, there can be no talk about harming Azerbaijan." He said that if the Treaty of Moscow is terminated, "all the demands of Azerbaijan will be fulfilled based on mutually beneficial conditions".

Even in Armenia a number of experts are aware that the denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow and the overall escalation of the conflict between Russia and Turkey will not bring any benefit to the Armenians. For example, the director of the Caucasus Institute and political scientist Aleksandr Iskandaryan believes: "The statements of Russian deputies about the denunciation of the Treaty of Moscow are a stage in the propaganda war between Turkey and Russia. I do not think this will have any consequences for Armenia."

The expert of the Armenian Centre for Political and International Studies, Ruben Mehrabyan, says: "Russian political circles seek to rein in Turkey in their own mutual relations. The proposal, which is now circulating in the State Duma of Russia, has clear motives, which have nothing to do with the interests of Armenia. The Russian side is trying to present such initiatives as concern for the Armenian side, but somehow before November 2015 no one raised the question of denunciation. From the standpoint of real politics, whether the treaty is denounced or not - it will not change anything."

Thus, the further aggravation of relations between Moscow and Ankara, which resulted in the initiative to denounce the bilateral treaty of friendship and brotherhood, only exacerbates tensions in the surrounding regions, including the South Caucasus, which has lost such an important factor of stability as Russian-Turkish neighbourliness. But it is Syria, which is being devastated by the major actors of global politics, that will continue to experience the negative consequences of the confrontation between Moscow and Ankara most of all.