RESET-2022

The recent talks between the Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara are already called historic, as they are expected to open a new chapter in relations between the two countries. It was the first visit of an Israeli head of state to Turkey in fifteen years, with the issues of energy cooperation and regional security high on the agenda. These processes have become particularly relevant amid huge geopolitical upheaval associated with the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Is my enemy’s enemy my friend?

Relations between Israel and Turkey got worse back in 2008 when Israel launched Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip. Tensions culminated two years later when the Israeli navy seized the Turkish ship Mavi Marmara, which was part of the Freedom Flotilla attempting to break the blockade of Gaza. Over the years, however, the process of understanding between the two countries has been overshadowed not only by the Arab-Israeli conflict but also by Turkey's position on Libya, disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean and other issues. Things would occasionally go so bad that observers did not even rule out a possibility of armed conflict. Both countries have called back their ambassadors and harshly criticised each other.

The situation has pushed Israel toward Greece and Cyprus, including regular meetings between the leaders of these countries and holding joint military exercises. This has eventually provoked an even more negative reaction from Ankara. In 2019, Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Israel established the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum. In 2020, a proposal to join the alliance was received from the UAE, while France expressed its willingness to become a member of the newly established organisation. Israel, Greece and Cyprus even signed an agreement on the construction of the EastMed gas pipeline supposed to transport gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe. The $7b-pipeline is expected to be 1,900 kilometres long, with annual design capacity of 10 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas. However, later it became known that the United States actually refused to support the project, calling it costly and risky, including for environmental reasons. However, as many experts and politicians pointed out, the key point of dissatisfaction for the White House was not environmental concerns, but the pipeline’s increasing significance as a source of tension in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey as an energy hub

In any case, Herzog and Erdogan are now discussing the prospect of Israeli gas exports to Europe via Turkey. This initiative, albeit not something new, has most likely become relevant due to the conflict in Ukraine, which puts unprecedented pressure on energy markets. But note that Herzog's visit had been planned weeks before these events. Reportedly, former Israeli ambassador to the EU and former advisor to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs Subcommittee, Oded Eran, said that the Turkish route for supply of Israeli gas to the EU had long been seen as the best possible solution.

Also, Herzog visited Greece and Cyprus before traveling to Ankara, clearly with an intention of reassuring Israel’s longstanding partners and possibly obtaining their approval. Anyway, it is clear that a possible Israeli-Turkish agreement would be beneficial not only for Ankara's energy security, but for the security of the European Union as a whole. In a broader context, Erdogan is apparently taking another step towards turning the Republic of Turkey into a regional energy hub.

Ankara has recently begun to pursue a policy of rapprochement not only with Israel but also with other Middle Eastern actors, especially Egypt and the UAE. Israel is also making similar steps towards its neighbours. Thus, thanks to the Abraham Accords the Jewish state was able to establish a dialogue with the Gulf monarchies. This process was also largely supported by the Biden administration’s policies towards Turkey and Israel, as well as the entire Middle East after the 2020 presidential elections in the US. That said, one of the most important factors for Israel is the Biden administration’s intention to revive the nuclear deal with Iran. As expected, this move caused a great deal of concern among the Israelis provoking them to seek partners to deter Tehran. On the other hand, observers believe that Turkey hopes to improve its relations with the US by strengthening ties with Israel.

Another critical moment was the sudden withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan followed by Washington's desire to reduce its presence in the region. As a result, the regional states, which cannot leave the region even though they wanted to, need to combine their efforts to maintain order. This requires cooperation, especially in the fields of military and intelligence. It is obvious that Turkey and Israel are some of the strongest and most ambitious countries in the Middle East. It is clear that they cannot have interests that match completely, but they realise that it is much better to be able to agree than to compete. After all, relations between the two countries have a long history and are based not only on political, but also on cultural ties and strong mutual trade. For example, in 2020, trade turnover between Turkey and Israel reached a record $5.75 billion and Ankara was one of the ten largest trading partners of the Jewish state.

Looking for stability and partnership

“Relations between Israel and Turkey have certainly known ups and downs and not very easy moments in recent years. But we will try to restart our relations and build them in a measured and cautious manner. At a time when the international order is undermined, it is good and right to maintain stability and partnership in our region,” President Herzog said before leaving for Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the visit “a historic event that will be a turning point in relations between the two countries”. “Our common goal with Israel is to revive political dialogue between our countries based on common interests and respect for mutual feelings,” Erdogan said.

Many experts believe that it was the Second Garabagh War in 2020 that brought Turkey and Israel much closer, when both states provided military, technical and political support to Azerbaijan in its just struggle against the Armenian occupation. It is certainly to Baku's advantage that its closest partners, Turkey and Israel, become allies and support each other in the international arena. “Turkey is a fraternal country of Azerbaijan, and Israel is our strategic partner. We want our friends to be real friends with each other,” Hikmet Hajiyev, head of the Foreign Policy Department of the Administration of the Azerbaijani President, said. Israeli observers have consistently emphasised the role of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in establishing a productive dialogue between Turkey and Israel.

It is clear that this dialogue will continue. It is known that the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs will visit Israel and Palestine in April. The Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources is also expected to visit Israel. Ankara and Jerusalem are following a course of establishing a broad strategic partnership. If we look at this rapprochement as a perspective Israeli-Turkish-Azerbaijani cooperation triangle, we can see its scope and possibilities only expanding. The Israeli-Turkish reset will certainly have a positive impact on overall international security, since Israel and Turkey are the strongest regional players in all spheres.