MILITARY PURGE

Armenia has a new president. The parliament elected Vahagn Khachatryan to this post, albeit at the second attempt. The only candidate from the ruling Civic Agreement party was just two votes short of victory in the first round. But in the second round, Khachatryan was safely elected president. The opposition faction Hayastan led by Robert Kocharian and I Have Honour led by Arthur Vanetsian together with Serzh Sargsian's republicans did not take part in the voting. They also ignored the inauguration ceremony of the new head of state.

Theoretically, this would look like throwing punches when the fight is over. Nikol Pashinyan has thus managed to kick the last member of the so-called Garabakh Clan, Armen Sarkisian, out of power and replace him with his protege. The opposition, in fact, was unable to oppose Pashinyan’s manoeuvre.

But the point is that the Armenian presidential election is not the only vector of domestic politics limited to a test of strength between Pashinyan and his archrivals from the Garabakh Clan. This also includes squabbling over a new ombudsman, media clashes, and many other things, especially the purges in the army.

Purges in the Ministry of Defence

Spring. Stars falling from shoulders. This is how Komsomolskaya Pravda, not a tabloid as it is now but a serious newspaper with bold articles, commented on the series of resignations in the USSR Ministry of Defence soon before the collapse of the USSR. Now there is a similar starfall in the Armenian Ministry of Defence. On February 24, Artak Davtyan, Chief of General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces, was dismissed twice. Soon after being approved on his new position for the first time, he was dismissed, reappointed but later dismissed for the second time. Earlier dismissals included Araik Harutyunyan, Deputy Chief of the General Staff and Director of the Main Intelligence Directorate, and Romik Margaryan, head of the ministry’s department for rear operations, and others. In fact, five high-ranking officials of the Armenian Ministry of Defence lost their jobs in a single day.

There are enough versions of the incident. The names of Davtyan and his deputies, who are prosecuted for unserviceable missiles that some claim have been purchased by high-ranking ministry officials, are not forgotten in Armenia. Another sensational incident in the Armenian army was the spying of Armenian officers for the enemy, that is Azerbaijan... And they were recruited through social networks. Thus, a purge in the army might seem indeed necessary and expected amid these troubles, including the defeat in the war.

What's behind the scenes?

According to some experts, the number of investigations and cases against officers and individuals somehow involved in the army has grown exponentially in Armenia since its surrender in the 44-day war. For example, the prosecution of the former Armenian Minister of Defence, David Tonoyan, has been going on for several months now. He and several others, including local arms baron Davit Galstyan, also known as Patron Davo, are accused of embezzlement of funds meant for the procurement and upgrading of weapons. There are rumours that Davo had managed to set up a good business by purchasing weapons from Russia at domestic rates on behalf of an CSTO member state, Armenia. He would then resell them to third countries at market prices. However, the arms contracts usually do not provide for re-export.

There are also regular trials of officers who are accused of not fulfilling their duties in due manner, deserting their subordinates, leaving positions on their own, hence causing units under their command suffer heavy losses, including the loss of positions, etc.

Let's leave aside stock phrases such as ‘Armenian fighting spirit’, ‘warrior people’, ‘lions with hearts of steel ready to defend their churches and crosses’, and so on. As professional military experts pointed out during the 44-day war, it is difficult to keep moral courage under missile attacks from the Bayraktars, when 18-year-old soldiers see concrete fortification walls crumbling in front of their eyes. Behind this wave of trials of officers there is clearly an attempt to cover up the real causes of Armenia's defeat with references to ‘unprofessionalism’ of individual officers, i.e. without analysis of top miscalculations. This may well be part of yet another PR campaign and preparation of public opinion for another attack on the men in uniform.

Certainly, Armenian political analysts can argue about reforms in the Armenian army. But it would be better to replace the term ‘reforms’ with ‘reconstruction’. As a result of the war, Armenia lost most of its armoured vehicles and a whole pool of officers, let alone the loss of reputation. In such a situation, imprisoning the remaining officers seems illogical, to say the least. But apparently Pashinyan relies on external security guarantees from Russia and the CSTO countries to solve his domestic political problems.

Pashinyan against the remnants of his army

Perhaps the current wave of dismissals in the Armenian defence ministry is another round of Nikol Pashinyan's struggle with the Garabakh Clan, which still retains serious influence over the army. Pashinyan has tried several times to do some housekeeping there, but failed.

Now he has restarted an attack on the army hierarchy, this time with in a broader context. Minister of Defence is Suren Papikyan—a civilian official and one of those who are referred to as the Soros minions. But it was expected to see the top brass of the General Staff get a scolding anyway.

Pashinian's fears are not ephemeral at all. It is suffice to recall how after the 2020 surrender the then Chief of Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces, Onik Gasparyan, tried to organise a mutiny against the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. He failed, but who can guarantee that some of the generals will not attempt to do it again, especially after getting backed by serious external support?

Anyway, this is an internal Armenian business. What is important is that the ongoing military purge may seemingly hit the Armenian revanchist faction playing into the hands of Pashinyan and his supporters. But should we consider Pashinyan as a dove of peace? Let us not forget that his track record includes holding Araik Harutyunyan's inauguration in Shusha, and drunken dancing on Cıdır Düzü, as well as statements such as Garabagh is Armenia, period. Let alone missile attacks on the Azerbaijani cities of Ganja, Terter, Barda and Mingechevir during the 44-day war.

Undoubtedly, Yerevan can well use the internal instability as a pretext to slow down the implementation of its commitments. After all, Pashinian has already did such a manoeuvre after the pre-war meeting in Dushanbe.

But today the balance of power is very different. And Baku will not tolerate any more delays by the Pashinyan administration.