BIBI'S RETURN

Israeli politics have once again proved to be unpredictable and full of options and possibilities of all sorts. The fifth early election in the last four years (incidentally, with a high turnout rate of 71%) resulted in a dramatic loss of popularity for left-wing parties and a considerable improvement in the right-wing camp.

Return to big politics

Soon after more than 90 percent of the votes had been counted, it was clear that the bloc of parties led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Netanyahu's Likud, Religious Zionist, Shas and United Torah Judaism) would receive 64 of the 120 seats in the 25th Knesset. This left no doubt that the 73-year-old Bibi (as Netanyahu is often called in Israel) was, after all, returning to power and big politics. The incumbent technical prime minister, Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid party, did not comment for a long time, which was quite understandable - his allies did not pass the electoral threshold.

Israel is a parliamentary republic, voting is performed by party lists. The electoral threshold is quite low - 3.25% of the vote, or just 4 mandates in the 120-seat unicameral Knesset. After the elections, President Yitzhak Herzog met with the heads of all the parties and factions, and entrusted the strongest among them (the future prime minister) with forming a new coalition government. Forty parties and political blocs participated in the present elections, whereas normally at least ten parties are represented in the Knesset.

Undoubtedly, this electoral system is democratic. Yet the events unfolding in Israel in recent years demonstrates one of its weaknesses, for none of the parties could get absolute majority making the establishment of the new government based on the coalition agreement. But such alliances are often so disparate that the legislative branch predictably and eventually hangs up.

This is what happened with the last coalition formed after the March 2021 elections, which brought together the extreme right, the extreme left, the centrists, the religious parties and the Arab unions for the sole purpose of pushing Netanyahu out. Yet he survived, but failed to govern well. The alliance of ‘all with all’ collapsed in June, and early new elections were called, while the post of the prime minister was temporarily taken over by Yair Lapid, the foreign minister.

Extreme right wins

Meanwhile, the most important outcome of the current elections in Israel was not the actual return of Netanyahu, but the fact that many Israeli citizens voted for the far-right. For example, 46-year-old lawyer Itamar Ben-Gvir, who until recently was considered a political pariah because he had been prosecuted more than 50 times on various charges, including for inciting violence and hatred, is said to be the big winner of the election. Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich are leaders of the extreme right-wing nationalist and religious radical bloc Religious Zionism (HaTzionut HaDatit and Otsma Yehudit parties). The other parties are more traditional - the Shas is inclined towards ultra-Orthodox Jews, Arab countries of North Africa, Sephardic Jews, while United Torah Judaism is a political bloc of moderate religious Jews from Europe (Ashkenazi Jews). All of them, and especially Religious Zionism, have greatly consolidated their position mainly thanks to some of the votes from the disintegrated right-wing Yaminah alliance.

Ben-Gvir believes the rapid popularity of his party is associated with insecurity in Israel amid increasing Palestinian attacks. Another reason for the steady right-wing bias of voters is believed to be demographical factors, as religious families traditionally have many children. Higher birth rates mean the number of potential voters increases every year. Moreover, in terms of voting religious Jews are very disciplined trying to exercise their right to vote as much as possible.  As a result, Netanyahu did not get discouraged and took advantage of this support.

However, the fact that Netanyahu's allies are often called near-extremists may complicate the formation of the new government. After all, their influence over Israeli politics will now inevitably increase. For example, the Israeli media notes that Bezalel Smotrich wants to be defence minister, while Itamar Ben-Gvir wants to be public security minister.

No doubt the far-right will try to introduce religious norms into the law, such as those related to the operation of shops on the Sabbath. This may increase divisions in Israeli society with large and strong groups of the secular population living in the coastal towns. They are unlikely to be happy about the increasing influence of religion, not to mention Palestinian Arabs and some other nationalities. There are also concerns about the situation of the LGBT community in Israel. So we can expect serious concerns about the relationship between religion and authority in Israel in the near future, also given the deteriorating economic situation and rising food and housing prices. 

Israel is already facing the problem of overpopulation, which increases pressure on the transport, education, health and housing. "We will bring back security, we will curb high costs, we will expand the ring of peace (around Israel), we will bring Israel back into the ranks of rising powers. Voters want to restore national pride and choose a government that promises strength, not weakness," Netanyahu reassures Israeli citizens and promises to take care of all of them, regardless of their political preferences. For many, however, such rhetoric is only a glaring display of populism being the key accusation against Netanyahu among his opponents.

No concessions

Understandably, this does not promise the best conditions for any progress on the Palestinian issue. There was essentially nothing in the election campaign about resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, so we should certainly not expect negotiations to resume. Moreover, Netanyahu declared his intention to retain control of the West Bank territories and to establish Jerusalem as Israel's capital. "While there is no agreement with the Palestinians yet, there is broad consensus that Israel retains security control over all territory west of Jordan and Jerusalem will remain the capital of a united and sovereign Israel," Netanyahu said on November 6 during a Knesset ceremony marking the 27th anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir are known for much harsher anti-Arab rhetoric, as they call for deportation and the banning of Arab parties. In fact, religious Jews have a very different view of many aspects of the conflict, especially the settlements in the West Bank. For them, this is a sacred mission and they are against any concessions to the Arabs.

From stability to tightening

As for Israel's foreign policy, the forecasts vary from stability to hardening. Netanyahu has always been known for his intransigent position against Iran, and nothing will change in this sense. The new government will do is best to prevent Tehran, as well as Hezbollah and Hamas from growing stronger. At the same time, the Likud leader declared his intention to continue normalising relations with the Arab countries as part of the so-called Abraham Accords. The focus on normalising relations with Turkey is likely to remain, especially as Ankara itself seeks to maintain balanced relations with Israel regardless of the outcome of the elections.

But US-Israeli relations will inevitably face new challenges, though much depends on the final outcome of the American midterm elections. Many international observers wish to know how Bibi will his relations with Moscow. After all, many things happened while he has been away from the power. First and foremost is the violent confrontation between Russia and the West amid the war in Ukraine. Netanyahu has always had warm relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In his interview with MSNBC on October 19, Bibi described the prospect of an escalation of the conflict as disastrous. Meanwhile, he will also have to react to the increasing Russian-Iranian cooperation. On the one hand this is an unpleasant fact for Israel, on the other hand Moscow has leverage over Iran and, of course, over Bashar al-Assad, who is reported to communicate with senior Hamas leaders recently.

Thus the new Israeli government will have to tackle many challenges at home, in the region and on the international stage in general. But even Netanyahu's rivals know that he is a recognised master of solving complex problems, prudent and cautious, a master of reshuffling political figures - both enemies and allies.  We can expect to see many more interesting moves in the Israeli politics full of surprises.