IT'S JUST THE BEGINNING

Globally, the year of 2022 was teeming with events unlikely to leave good memories. These include unprecedented climate challenges, the ongoing pandemic, war in Ukraine, slowing economic growth, food and energy crises, talks about a possible global nuclear war and the steady decline of the UN and its key institutions, including the Security Council. With all this in mind, we apparently have a pretty clear picture of problems we should be prepared for in 2023.   

Unrest in Kazakhstan

Quite unexpectedly, 2022 began with Kazakhstan, where protests against the rising gas prices quickly turned into demands for the resignation of the government and large-scale unrest in many regions of the country. The situation was particularly worrisome in Almaty. Neighbouring countries, still in a relaxed mood after the New Year celebrations, watched in amazement the news about how it suddenly became dangerous to walk through the streets of the once peaceful and flourishing city even to the nearest shop. The deployment of the CSTO military forces to Kazakhstan has provoked mixed reactions in the world and in the region. And while the mission was generally successful, the year was hardly the same for the organisation. The incident was followed by ousting Nursultan Nazarbayev as Chairman of the Security Council. In summer, the title of Yelbasy was abolished in Kazakhstan, followed by a snap presidential election held in the autumn. The incumbent Kazakh president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won the elction, thereby significantly strengthening both his position and that of his supporters. The country has managed to overcome many internal challenges and is now more actively involved in foreign policy than under President Nazarbayev. 

War in Ukraine

At the end of February, news from Ukraine hit the headlines all over the world. This trend continued throughout the year, and is going to be a major topic in 2023 as well. Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision has seriously deteriorated Russia’s relations with the collective West since the Cold War and has completely reshaped the international geopolitical reality. The effects of the war are felt world wide on a political level, as well as in terms of food, energy and fuel supplies. The war has already claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people, with millions of people becoming refugees. According to UN estimates, by May 2022 almost 8 million Ukrainians had been recognised as internally displaced persons, while over 7 million had left the country. Some Ukrainian cities have been almost completely destroyed.

According to the BBC, pro-Russian forces lost more than 117,000 people during the ten months of the war. Russia also faced an unprecedented amount of foreign sanctions in 2022. Thousands of Russian nationals emigrated voluntarily, unwilling to be mobilised or simply protesting the Kremlin's actions.

The ongoing events in Ukraine shows us what modern warfare looks like, with all the UAVs, space reconnaissance devices, reliable classified communication and electronic warfare systems, etc. becoming increasingly important. This makes the issue of the need to control the use of modern technology in the military sphere relevant. Information warfare entered a new level and is increasingly shifting from the media to social networks. Many observers refer to the current crisis as a hybrid war between Russia and NATO, which is escalating and difficult to predict. Indeed, various scenarios have been considered during 2022, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons and even a full-fledged Third World War.

Election of the year

This year saw presidential elections in Turkmenistan held in March and won by Serdar Berdymukhamedov, as well as in France, which left Emmanuel Macron for the second term in office, snap parliamentary elections in Israel, which brought Benjamin Netanyahu (and the most extreme right-wing government in the country's history) back to the politics. There was also the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held in Beijing, which re-elected Xi Jinping as the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee for the third term. However, the most awaited event was the November midterm elections in the USA, which re-elected the entire House of Representatives (435 Congressmen), one third of the Senate (35 Senators) and over half of the governors. As a result, the Republicans regained control of the House of Representatives, but their victory was not as crushing as predicted. Contrary to predictions, there was no resounding ‘red wave’. President Biden avoided a ‘vote of no confidence’, but his potential challenger in the upcoming 2024 election, Donald Trump, is widely seen as having suffered an informal defeat. The rising star of the Republican Party, at least for now, is Florida governor Ron DeSantis, whose ratings continue to rise steadily.

Protests in Iran

The protests in Iran, which began in mid-September, are another important event of the year, with a high potential to continue. Initially, no one paid much attention to them, because this is not the first manifestation of public discontent on the streets of the Islamic Republic. However, the protests have gained momentum and could plunge the country into a full-fledged political crisis. This, in turn, highly increases the likelihood of an armed conflict between Iran and the US and/or Israel. The nuclear deal with Iran is now stalled, and may possibly get revoked at all. In addition, Western countries are noticeably nervous about Tehran's cooperation with Moscow, including in the military sphere, which has deepened significantly over the past year. 

Geopolitical funeral of the year

In the same year of 2022 we saw the end of the reign of Elizabeth II, who had been monarch of the United Kingdom for 70 years since 1952. The queen (96) died on September 8 at the Balmoral Castle in Scotland. She was a symbol of the country and her reign was a veritable epoch. Elizabeth II met Winston Churchill, John F. Kennedy, Yuri Gagarin, Nikita Khrushchev and many other legendary politicians and personalities of the past. And although not everything had gone smoothly in the Queen's long reign, many Britons have genuinely loved her. A far cry from the new King Charles III, the former Prince Charles, who had remained in this status for a record 70 years. In parallel to the departure of the queen, Britain was also shaken by political crises, including Boris Johnson's resignation following a series of scandals involving both his personnel policies and parties at the government residence in Downing Street during the national lockdown. His successor Liz Truss did not miss a chance to prove herself either. With her infamous support plan for the national economy, she set a record by staying in the premiership for just 44 days. Conservative Party leader Rishi Sunak, 42, was appointed as the new prime minister, making him Britain's youngest prime minister since 1812 and its first prime minister of Indian origin. Other significant political figures who died in 2022 include the first and last president of the USSR, Mikhail Gorbachev, and Russian politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Both were very controversial figures, with fierce opponents as well as supporters. Their departure is in some ways a definitive symbol of farewell to the 20th century. 

The dangerous Korean peninsula

The situation around the Korean peninsula remains complex. Since the beginning of 2022, North Koreans have conducted more than 30 missile launches, including cruise missiles and a medium-range intercontinental ballistic missile. In early September, the DPRK government issued a decree stating that the country was a nuclear weapon state and the right to any decisions related to nuclear weapons lies solely with the country's leader, Kim Jong-un. Meanwhile, Pyongyang claims the missile launches are taking place amid intensified joint military exercises by the US and South Korea. Experts are fearful that Kim Jong-un can decide on a provocation that would entail a clash between the North and the South Koreas.

China vs. the US

Tensions between the US and China further intensified in 2022. The Americans have done a successful job of forging closer ties in the Indo-Pacific region mainly through the involvement of the four regional countries (Australia, India, Japan and the US), AUKUS (Australia, the UK and the US), and through intensified cooperation with Japan and South Korea. Many experts believe that the world is now threatened by a Sino-American technology war. The most difficult problem in Washington’s relations with Beijing remains the issue of Taiwan. The current status quo, when the island is independent de facto but is considered by China an integral part of its territory, causes resentment on both sides of the Pacific. The most acute moment of the past year was the August visit to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives. The last visit of such a high-ranked official to the island was back in 1997. Still, there is unlikely to be an escalation any time soon. In fact, no one is ready for it and no one needs it. Anyway, Taiwan will remain a serious irritant throughout this year as well.

Farewell to COVID or not?

The coronavirus was still on a roll at the beginning of 2022. Meanwhile, in many countries around the world, lockdown measures began to spark protest sentiments. Such as in Canada with its now-famous Freedom Convoy against vaccine passports. On February 9, the number of people infected with COVID-19 worldwide exceeded 400m. Nevertheless, China hosted the Winter Olympics on February 4-20 but the authorities had to confront the protests against the lockdown measures that started on November 23. Currently, restrictions related to coronavirus are lifted almost all over the world. People were happy to return to face-to-face activities, including concerts, sporting events, exhibitions, etc. However, in December, there were sudden reports from China about a sharp increase in the number of infections. Chinese officials estimate that in the first 20 days of December, after Beijing lifted a nearly three-year quarantine, about 250 million people (18% of population) became infected. It is therefore difficult to say whether or not we will see then end of the coronavirus story in 2022. 

Climate challenges

On November 15, the world population reached 8 billion people, with the climate risks becoming increasingly apparent. Humanity has yet to find a way to deal with the effects of climate change effectively, and most importantly, collectively. In this sense, 2022 was very revealing, disappointing (especially the global summit COP27) and frightening. Not only poor countries in Asia, but also the wealthy countries of western Europe are facing the consequences of climate change with prolonged droughts and reduced precipitation. Rivers are becoming shallow, crops and forests are dying. In many parts of the world, e.g. California, there were wildfires, which were impossible to extinguish because of abnormal high temperatures. At the same time, other parts of the world (Nigeria, Pakistan, etc.) suffered from severe flooding, which also caused a big number of deaths and crop failures. Since 2019, the number of people facing severe food shortages has risen from 135 million to 345 million. In addition, problems such as the debt crisis in developing countries (18% of the global population) and the soaring global debt also worsened in 2022.

We are at the beginning of our journey

So what can we expect in 2023? Alas, many forecasts are pessimistic: a continuing war in Ukraine, possible new local incidents as well as the threat of full-blown international conflict, climate surprises and probably new viruses, economic problems, food and energy shortages. In 2023, the developing world is likely to face greater levels of poverty and lack of access to education, while the developed world will struggle to adapt to the new conditions. That said, it is almost impossible to make even rough predictions about the changing world order, because we are probably at the very beginning of a difficult journey. It's just getting started...